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Investment Analysts Bullish on Pakistan

I can also confirm anecdotally that the economy is picking up, just by counting the flat screen tv's, new fridges and micro-wave ovens being purchased in the middle class and lower middle class households, also purchase of new farm equipment points to the rise of the rural rupee.

same phenomenon even in tribal areas; some of it can be attributed to remmittances .....also the informal sector is yet to be quantified -- b/c it's very difficult. But you cant neglect the informal sector especially in a country like Pakistan

either way -- strong domestic consumption also helps drive growth.....that's why main focus should be on SMEs and on policies that foster and help widen the middle class (the real drivers)
 
Abu Zolfiqar, Farhan, and Riaz, would ya guys explain my post no. 35 given the bad state of economy? 'Cause I'm sure neither of ya would say Pakistan's economy is doing very well. Sure, it may not be doing as bad as portrayed as well, but what about all the progress we see in our daily lives on streets? Please explain.
 
ask big corporations like Coca Cola, Boeing, Johhnson & Johnson, TetraPak etc.

and they maintain portfolio and permanent presence DESPITE turmoil of the past few years. Under the previous govt. FDi inflows were quite substantial

hopefully these politicos goons who rob and loot our country will soon be out of work come next election



hedgefunds?

is it a surprise? theyre in it for quick gains

Not hedge funds. Hedge funds are alternative asset classes and nobody invest alone in alternative asset classes without investing in capital assets such as equity or fixed income. That is how investment companies manage their investment portfolios

However, I am talking of investments in real assets. I am talking of investments by large MNCs. Can you recall any large scale investment done by MNCs in Pakistan in recent time? At least I cannot.
 
Abu Zolfiqar, Farhan, and Riaz, would ya guys explain my post no. 35 given the bad state of economy? 'Cause I'm sure neither of ya would say Pakistan's economy is doing very well. Sure, it may not be doing as bad as portrayed as well, but what about all the progress we see in our daily lives on streets? Please explain.

The biggest beneficiaries of the PPP govt have been the people in rural areas.

Since taking the reins of power almost over four years ago, the coalition government in Islamabad, which is led by the Pakistan Peoples' Party, has been increasing the support prices of wheat and other agricultural commodities every year. This policy has had the following effects:

1. It is transferring the additional new income of about Rs. 300 billion in the current fiscal year alone to the ruling party's power base of landowners in small towns and villages, from those working in the urban industrial and service sectors.

2. It has driven up food prices dramatically for all Pakistanis, particularly hurting the poor people the most.

3. It has reduced government tax revenues because the agricultural income is not taxed by either the federal or the provincial governments, and resulted in growing budget deficits.

4. It has significantly increased demand for consumer and industrial goods and services in the rural areas.

5. It has forced the State Bank of Pakistan to maintain a tight monetary policy which is drying up the much-needed credit for the industries and the average consumers alike.

6. It's likely to slow rural-to-urban migration and relieve pressure on major cities and their inadequate infrastructure.

Haq's Musings: Pakistan's Rural Economy Showing Strength

Away from the violence and the troubles of the big cities, the economy of rural Pakistan is booming. Flush with cash from bumper crops at record commodity prices, the farmers are spending on tractors, cars, motorcycles, mobile phones, personal grooming items, packaged foods and beverages and other consumer products like never before.

Haq's Musings: FMCG Companies Profit From Rural Consumption Boom in Pakistan
 
I do appreciate your point of view, and your anecdotal experiences indicating good middle class consumption. However, the economic indicators are quite bad, just as bad as the terrible law and order situation and a military/political system totally incapable of dealing with the nation's issues.

You are correct that the economy is not doing well. And the other fellow is also correct that conspicuous consumption is booming. At first glance, this appears to be a paradox that puzzles everybody: the headline numbers indicate an economy in an abysmal state, but everywhere one looks, there are people shopping like there is no tomorrow. So how is this possible?

ANSWER: There is no paradox. The answer is not at all surprising.

To see why, go to the finance ministry:
http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapter_12/01-GrowthAndStabilization.pdf

Look at Table 1.4 on Page 9 to see the "Composition of GDP Growth":

GDP = Consume + Invest + Exp-Imp
4.2% = 9.4% + (-1.4%) + (-3.8%)

Now we can see how obvious and unsurprising the answer to that "riddle" is. The gung-ho consumption we see (1st term) is simply coming at the cost of falling investment (2nd term)and at the cost of frittering away the remittances through consumptive net-imports (3rd term).

Okay, we go next to Table I.4 in the APPENDIX and see "EXPENDITURE ON GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES".

A) Then look at the dramatic rise (in constant 2000 prices, i.e. no inflation) of:
1) Private Consumption Expenditure
2) General Govt. Current Consumption Expenditure
3) Import of Goods and Non-Factor Services

B) Then look at the collapse (in constant 2000 prices, i.e. no inflation) of:
1) Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation
2) Export of Goods and Non-Factor Services

C) Then look at the modest change (in constant 2000 prices, i.e. no inflation) of:
1) Expenditure on GDP at Market Prices

Again we can see how obvious and unsurprising the answer to that "riddle" is. Again we note the same implication. The gung-ho consumption we see (A1 & A2 terms) is coming at the cost of falling investment (B1 term) and at the cost of frittering away the remittances through consumptive net-imports (B2-A3).

SUMMARY: The boom in conspicuous consumption is coming at the expense of saving & investment. There is no miracle here. Just misguided people frittering away their seed-corn. The consumption boom we are witnessing is not sustainable and always ends in the same way: Financial Crisis, BOP crisis, Currency crisis, Total Macroeconomic Collapse.
 
Here's a Financial Times Op Ed on Pakistan:


Pity the people of Pakistan, trapped between self-serving, complacent elites who preside over a crumbling state, and a rich array of violent extremists who seem determined to tear the same state apart....

The military, the country’s most meritocratic and efficient institution, is widely regarded as the only force that can break this grim cycle. Yet there are other, largely hidden forces at work in Pakistan that hold it together and offer it a better future:

adaptability and resilience, entrepreneurship and shared coping.

These forces can be found in the very new – widespread mobile banking services – and the very old – Islam’s traditions of charity, justice and learning. When government and donors work creatively with these forces, amazing things can happen.

Pakistan has one of the best regulatory environments in the world for microfinance and one of the fastest-growing microfinance sectors, with 3m borrowers. It is also one of the most innovative places in the world for mobile banking services, partly due to the State Bank of Pakistan’s moves to encourage the market. About 1.5m customers make about 30m transactions a quarter through their mobiles, using a network of 20,000 agents, mainly local shops, to collect their cash.

A wave of charitable giving by individuals has helped to ensure that the hundreds of thousands of people displaced by floods in 2010 are not still living in tents. A guerrilla army of more than 100,000 Lady Health Workers, funded by government, has helped to reduce markedly the number of women and babies who die in child birth, according to studies by the World Bank.

Too many children are still out of school and many government schools are woeful. Yet Pakistani parents go to enormous lengths to give their children, girls and boys, a chance at an education.

Low-cost private sector schools, charging perhaps $2 a week, are booming in slums and villages. Wherever girls receive a secondary level education, small private schools run in the homes of their owners start popping up, as they put their education to use to improve their standing in society. Even the government’s conservative figures suggest that a third of children in Pakistan and half in Karachi, many of them from poor households, attend such schools.

Indeed, Pakistan has a record in picking up new approaches to learning. The Allama Iqbal university in Islamabad, the first open university outside the UK, is the second largest in the world with 1.8m students. Start-ups such as Tele Taleem, tucked away on a dusty industrial estate on the outskirts of Islamabad, are pioneering ways to take learning to schools in the remoter regions, through satellite links and cheap tablet computers.

Donors are playing a vital role in promoting social innovation. The UK’s Department for International Development has pioneered a new road map for school improvement in Punjab, which Sir Michael Barber, the education reform expert, says is delivering one of the world’s fastest improvements in school performance. In Karachi, tens of thousands of poorer families will next year receive vouchers to send their children to low-cost private schools.

In agriculture, social venture capitalists such as Indus Basin Holdings are leading efforts to link groups of small-scale rice farmers to multinational companies.

Pakistan’s institutions may seem frozen, its elites worried that taking on the extremists will provoke even more violence in the run-up to next year’s elections. Yet, at the grassroots, Pakistan is in perpetual motion, with ceaseless creativity as people find affordable solutions to their basic needs. These largely hidden forces of resilience offer the best hope for the country’s future. In Pakistan, the state may be fragile but society is far stronger than many think.

Time to look again at Pakistani society - FT.com
 
Abu Zolfiqar, Farhan, and Riaz, would ya guys explain my post no. 35 given the bad state of economy? 'Cause I'm sure neither of ya would say Pakistan's economy is doing very well. Sure, it may not be doing as bad as portrayed as well, but what about all the progress we see in our daily lives on streets? Please explain.

Please see my earlier comment (#50 or #post3577977) that explains precisely this point.

In addition, what do you think would be an appropriate title for this thread? Please choose from the following:

1) Pakistan, Pakistan
2) Bullish on Pakistan
3) Investment Analysts Bullish on Pakistan
4) Credit Suisse Analysts Bullish on Pakistan
5) One Particular Credit Suisse Analyst Bullish on Pakistan
6) Another Particular Credit Suisse Analyst Bullish on Pakistan's Cement Sector
7) Two Credit Suisse Analysts Bullish on Pakistan
8) Two Pakistani Analysts from Credit Suisse Bullish on Pakistan
9) Two Pakistani Investment Analysts Bullish on Pakistan
10) Investment Analysts Bullish on Pakistan
11) Bullish on Pakistan
12) Pakistan, Pakistan

Nazaria-i-Pakistan Trust's Official Website
 
"Pity the people of Pakistan, trapped between self-serving, complacent elites who preside over a crumbling state, and a rich array of violent extremists who seem determined to tear the same state apart...."

That author of this moving piece works for the Association of Free Lance Journalists (AFLJ) . Interesting, AFLJ is often derisively called "Association of Free-Lunch Journalists". Like most of his colleagues, he is available for rent. His rates are quite reasonable.

The actual rate will depend on whether you pay in cash or by cheque and also on whether you need a receipt or not.

Do you want him to write an article praising the eradication of alcoholism and pornography by the Taliban? Do you want a receipt?
How about an article stating that the closure of girls-schools in Waziristan has helped build self-esteem in girls? Are you paying cash?

All things are possible. For a price. This price is called the Right Price.
 
I can also confirm anecdotally that the economy is picking up, just by counting the flat screen tv's, new fridges and micro-wave ovens being purchased in the middle class and lower middle class households, also purchase of new farm equipment points to the rise of the rural rupee.

Please see my earlier comment on how the current consumption boom was coming at the expense of savings & investment.

The situation right now is very precarious and we could see a BOP/Currency crisis with massive capital flight at any time:

ISLAMABAD: Despite depressive economic situation of the country, the government will repay $144.5 million sixth installment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) tomorrow (Thursday) from foreign currency reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

A finance ministry official told Online here on Tuesday that the government will repay a total of $534.3 million to IMF during on going month out of which $144.5 million on Thursday (Nov08) and the remaining $389.7 million on November 23.Pakistan has so far paid back $1.42 billion to the Fund.
The official said the country’s foreign exchange reserves will continue to face pressure due to re-payment of IMF loans in the next more than three years as Pakistan is likely to go to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in fresh loan in current fiscal year 2012-13 to seek loan for the retirement of IMF’s Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) facility.

According to the repayment schedule agreed between Pakistan and IMF, Pakistan will repay its obtain $7.6 billion to the IMF till the end of fiscal year 2014-15. The $11.3 billion SBA program had expired on September 30, 2011 and the last two trenches of $3.7 billion could not pay to Pakistan by IMF following Islamabad’s failure to pursue key reforms as well as the emergence of the revenue figures fiasco.

Pakistan had enter into a $11.3 billion programme in 2008 with IMF and got disbursements of about $7.6 billion, but failed to get the remaining $3.7 billion due to slippages in performance criteria, leading to suspension of the programme in May 2010 and was ended unsuccessfully on September 30,2011.

Please read:

Prof. F. R. Saleem at Dollar run - Dr Farrukh Saleem

Prof S.I. Murshed at Through the eye of the needle - S Iftikhar Murshed
 
Here's an ET report on Coke investing to expand in Pakistan:

It was an announcement made so quietly that it did not even make the headlines: having already invested $172 million in Pakistan this past year, The Coca Cola Company – one of the world’s largest beverage companies – is planning on investing another $248 million in the country over the next two years.

It may have something to do with the fact that Pakistanis are estimated to have spent approximately Rs110 billion ($1.3 billion) on carbonated beverages in 2011, according to an analysis by The Express Tribune based on figures compiled from industry sources. Coca Cola currently enjoys a 30% market share, second only to arch-rival PepsiCo.

“We see great potential in Pakistan’s future, which is why the company is investing significantly in upgrading infrastructure and adding value to allied industries,” said Rizwan Khan, general manager for The Coca Cola Company in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The money will be spent on two new bottling plants, one each in Karachi and Multan, as well as investing in more coolers, which will be distributed amongst retailers to help with the company’s retail sales efforts. Company officials were quick to point out that the investment is not simply the recycling of profits and cash flows from existing operations in Pakistan, but green-field foreign direct investment that will flow into the country over the next two years.

The expansion plans come as rising demand makes it difficult for Coca Cola to keep pace with its existing production capacity in Karachi and Punjab. The new plants will follow the establishment of a Coca Cola facility, already completed in 2011, which manufactures Coke cans. Previously, Coca Cola used to import cans from its factories in other countries.

Coca Cola’s business model in Pakistan is somewhat unique. The global US-based parent owns a subsidiary called The Coca Cola Export Company, which has a Pakistan branch. That Pakistan branch conducts all marketing and brand building activities and manufactures the concentrate for the company’s signature beverages from a plant it owns and operates in Raiwind.

The concentrate is then sold to Coca Cola Beverages Pakistan, a joint venture between the US-based parent and Coca Cola Içiçek, a Turkey-based partner of the group. Coca Cola Beverages Pakistan operates six bottling factories in Pakistan, located in Karachi, Gujranwala, Multan, Lahore, Rahimyar Khan, and Faisalabad.

Coca Cola used to have eight franchisees for its bottling facilities in Pakistan, but in the mid-1980s the company felt that the business model was not working. It then spent the next decade buying out every single franchisee in Pakistan, consolidating them under one umbrella to form Coca Cola Beverages Pakistan. This entity was a wholly-owned subsidiary of the US-based parent until 2008, when Coca Cola Içiçek took a 49% share.

The company declined to provide a precise revenue figure or growth numbers, but said that it buys close to Rs13 billion in raw materials from its 300 local suppliers. According to Coca Cola Içiçek’s annual report, the company’s revenue growth rate in Pakistan is in the high teens. Coca Cola has over 4,000 employees in Pakistan, and employs another 6,000 indirectly. Company officials say that it paid Rs11 billion in taxes last year.

---
“Our aim is to inspire economic activity, create employment and increase tax revenue for the government. However, it is the government’s responsibility to ensure that a productive investment and business operating environment is provided to local and international companies,” said Khan.

....

Beverages: Why Coca Cola is investing another $248m in Pakistan – The Express Tribune

Haq's Musings: Music Drives Coke Sales in Pakistan
 
same phenomenon even in tribal areas; some of it can be attributed to remmittances .....also the informal sector is yet to be quantified -- b/c it's very difficult. But you cant neglect the informal sector especially in a country like Pakistan

either way -- strong domestic consumption also helps drive growth.....that's why main focus should be on SMEs and on policies that foster and help widen the middle class (the real drivers)

You are correct that some of the ostentatious consumption we are now seeing can be attributed to the boom in remittances, especially from the expatriates in the GCC nations.

However, a major part of the rural consumption boom was triggered when the PPP came into power and increased agricultural support prices.

The PPP government increased food-prices specifically to move purchasing power away from urban area and towards their voter base in the rural areas.

If this is so, it then follows that any increase in the potential for consumption in rural areas must, in general, be matched by an equivalent decrease in the potential for consumption in urban areas.

The only reason overall (urban plus rural) consumption increased is because rural incomes are aggregate-taxed lower than urban incomes.

Therefore, the real net increase in overall consumption came only because of a decrease in tax revenue.

Still further, since the PPP did not cut spending in response to falling revenue, but rather increased the budget deficit, it follows that it is this increase in the Fiscal Deficit that has financed the recent rural consumption boom.

Given that any increase in fiscal deficit crowds out private investment, it follows that the current consumption boom must be cannibalizing future investment.

Once again, the conclusions are the same as in my previous comments on this thread:
1) This is not sustainable.
2) Crises (Financial, Debt, Currency) are just around the corner. They can hit at any time now.
3) Without reversing current trends & policies, total macroeconomic collapse is the only possible outcome that lies in the future.

I hope the point is clear.
 
Here's an excerpt of a story in The News about the size of Pakistan's informal economy:

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s informal economy has expanded, reaching 91.4 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). At a PIDE conference on Thursday, economist, M Ali Kemal said, “according to data for 2007-08, our formal GDP is half our actual GDP. However, it is still an under-estimated figure since investment data is not adjusted. The informal economy is 91.4 percent of the formal economy.”



He further said that the formal economy contributed Rs10,242 billion of the estimated Rs19,608 billion that the economy generates. Moreover, the informal economy stands at approximately Rs9,365 billion.



“Estimating the size of the underground economy is crucial for policy makers,” said Kemal. According to Economic Survey findings, total consumption for the entire population of the country is Rs17,261.6 billion and private consumption is Rs7,835.31 billion.



The sum of Rs9,426.29 billion is not reported in the formal economy.



During the session on poverty and household consumption, Dr Ashfaque H Khan, Dean NUST Business School (NBS) and Umer Khalid cited findings from a research paper on the consumption pattern of male and female-headed households in Pakistan.



According to their findings, marginal expenditure shares were highest for housing, durables, food and drink for households headed by men while they were highest for durables, followed by housing and food, and drinks for households headed by women. Higher marginal expenditures by households headed by females on education and durables were found in comparison with their male counterparts as these results were consistent in urban and rural areas of Pakistan.



Further, households headed by women were found to have higher budget shares for education, housing, fuels and lighting, clothing and footwear and lower average expenditure on food, drink, transport and communication compared to those headed by men.



The study also examined the consumption behavior of both types of households to determine consumption patterns and how they vary with change in economic status.



This analysis revealed that in the first three expenditure quintiles, the consumption expenditures of households headed by men were higher than those by women.



Moreover, in the last two quintiles, the consumption expenditures for households headed by women were slightly higher than those headed by women.

Size of informal economy at 91.4 percent of GDP: study - thenews.com.pk
 
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