Interesting Pattern Emerging in Drone Strikes near the Durrand Line

[JamD]

DISCLAIMER: I am not claiming knowledge of these things. I am using publicly available data to see a pattern. I have documented drone strikes during the past year. Of note are the sets of strikes (4,5,6,7,8,9), (13,14), and (16,17).

In all two of three sets there is a pattern:
First, someone from the Haqqani Network is targeted very close to or inside Pakistan.
Second, almost immediately (within a day) someone from TTP is targeted on the Afghan side. Both of these times the targets have been rather important TTP commanders. Namely, Khorasani, and Sajna.

I am not usually who likes to speculate things like this but it seems very unlikely that USA is trying appease us by doing "complimentary strikes" on TTP, especially when the rhetoric coming out of the current administration is so harsh. Secondly, it seems the Pakistani side has been taking a stronger stand on drone strikes (an example of this is the statement by the Air Chief).

I am SPECULATING that we have decided to cross a line we hadn't crossed before (at least not so obviously). Every time there's a drone strike on the Haqqani Network on the Pakistani side, there's a "payback strike" on an important TTP commander on the Afghan Side. It would appear we always had the intelligence, and we did go and touch them physically when we could, but now we just send a drone if the target is in the border region. This has the following benefits:
- Deniability: No one is saying Pakistani drone strikes. Everyone will assume they are CIA strikes.
- Reduced Risk: No risk of endangering our operatives.
- Messaging: Send a message to the other side that we see you too, and can undermine your position too.
- Proportionate Response: This is the only reasonable response to a drone strike because you can't shoot down a US drone for a variety of reasons (they usually remain in Afghan Airspace, and could elicit a stronger US response if shot down)


I would love to read everyone's opinions on this. I wonder if I am putting too much faith in our ability lol.


Drone Strikes listed in chronological order (near Durrand Line):

1. April 27, 2017 (Pakistan, North-Wazirstan)
Target: TTP
https://www.dawn.com/news/1329594

2. June 13, 2017 (Pakistan, Hangu)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1339293

3. September 15, 2017 (Pakistan, Ghuz Garhi)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1357853
https://www.dawn.com/news/1358039

4. October 16, 2017 (Pakistan, Kurram Agency)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364209
ISPR denies this happened on Pakistani side.

5. October 16, 2017 (Afghanistan, Patkia)
Target: Unknown – no casualties
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364426

6. October 17, 2017 (Afghanistan, Shpola/ Pakistan, Ghuz Garhi: Disputed)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364400
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364314

7. October 18, 2017 (Afghanistan, Paktia)
Target: JuA (Umar Khalid Khorasani)
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364510

8. October 19, 2017 (Afghanistan, Paktia)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364833

9. October 20, 2017 (Afghanistan, Jawar Ser)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1365061

10. November 30, 2017 (Afghanistan, Patan)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1373844

11. December 19, 2017 (Pakistan, Mata Sangar)
Target: TTP
https://www.dawn.com/news/1377496

12. December 26, 2017 (Pakistan, Mata Sangar)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1378954
https://www.dawn.com/news/1379121

13. January 17, 2018 (Pakistan, Badshah Kot)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1383516

14. January 17, 2018 (Afghanistan, Khani Kila)
Target: Unkown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1383516

15. January 24, 2018 (Pakistan, Speen Thal Dapa Mamozai)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1384978

16. February 09, 2018 (Pakistan, Gorwek)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1388283

17. February 09, 2018 (Afghanistan, Kharh Tangi)
Target: TTP (Khan Said Sajna)
https://www.dawn.com/news/1388361

 

[Silicon0000]

Interesting..........

 

[SipahSalar]

But Pakistan does not operate drones that can stay in the air for long periods of time and gather intelligence. I think Burraq is symbolic and Pakistan is not serious about using that drone's limited capabilities.

 

[JamD]

But Pakistan does not operate drones that can stay in the air for long periods of time and gather intelligence. I think Burraq is symbolic and Pakistan is not serious about using that drone's limited capabilities.

Pakistan operates at least a squadron of Shahpar which can stay airborne for 7 hours and has a data link range of 250 km.

I can only speculate, but if the Shahpar is in service on such a scale then there is no reason why the Burraq isn't.

EDIT: In this picture from early 2015 you can spot at least 12 units of the Burraq:

 

[hussain0216]

DISCLAIMER: I am not claiming knowledge of these things. I am using publicly available data to see a pattern. I have documented drone strikes during the past year. Of note are the sets of strikes (4,5,6,7,8,9), (13,14), and (16,17).

In all two of three sets there is a pattern:
First, someone from the Haqqani Network is targeted very close to or inside Pakistan.
Second, almost immediately (within a day) someone from TTP is targeted on the Afghan side. Both of these times the targets have been rather important TTP commanders. Namely, Khorasani, and Sajna.

I am not usually who likes to speculate things like this but it seems very unlikely that USA is trying appease us by doing "complimentary strikes" on TTP, especially when the rhetoric coming out of the current administration is so harsh. Secondly, it seems the Pakistani side has been taking a stronger stand on drone strikes (an example of this is the statement by the Air Chief).

I am SPECULATING that we have decided to cross a line we hadn't crossed before (at least not so obviously). Every time there's a drone strike on the Haqqani Network on the Pakistani side, there's a "payback strike" on an important TTP commander on the Afghan Side. It would appear we always had the intelligence, and we did go and touch them physically when we could, but now we just send a drone if the target is in the border region. This has the following benefits:
- Deniability: No one is saying Pakistani drone strikes. Everyone will assume they are CIA strikes.
- Reduced Risk: No risk of endangering our operatives.
- Messaging: Send a message to the other side that we see you too, and can undermine your position too.
- Proportionate Response: This is the only reasonable response to a drone strike because you can't shoot down a US drone for a variety of reasons (they usually remain in Afghan Airspace, and could elicit a stronger US response if shot down)


I would love to read everyone's opinions on this. I wonder if I am putting too much faith in our ability lol.


Drone Strikes listed in chronological order (near Durrand Line):

1. April 27, 2017 (Pakistan, North-Wazirstan)
Target: TTP
https://www.dawn.com/news/1329594

2. June 13, 2017 (Pakistan, Hangu)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1339293

3. September 15, 2017 (Pakistan, Ghuz Garhi)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1357853
https://www.dawn.com/news/1358039

4. October 16, 2017 (Pakistan, Kurram Agency)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364209
ISPR denies this happened on Pakistani side.

5. October 16, 2017 (Afghanistan, Patkia)
Target: Unknown – no casualties
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364426

6. October 17, 2017 (Afghanistan, Shpola/ Pakistan, Ghuz Garhi: Disputed)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364400
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364314

7. October 18, 2017 (Afghanistan, Paktia)
Target: JuA (Umar Khalid Khorasani)
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364510

8. October 19, 2017 (Afghanistan, Paktia)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364833

9. October 20, 2017 (Afghanistan, Jawar Ser)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1365061

10. November 30, 2017 (Afghanistan, Patan)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1373844

11. December 19, 2017 (Pakistan, Mata Sangar)
Target: TTP
https://www.dawn.com/news/1377496

12. December 26, 2017 (Pakistan, Mata Sangar)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1378954
https://www.dawn.com/news/1379121

13. January 17, 2018 (Pakistan, Badshah Kot)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1383516

14. January 17, 2018 (Afghanistan, Khani Kila)
Target: Unkown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1383516

15. January 24, 2018 (Pakistan, Speen Thal Dapa Mamozai)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1384978

16. February 09, 2018 (Pakistan, Gorwek)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1388283

17. February 09, 2018 (Afghanistan, Kharh Tangi)
Target: TTP (Khan Said Sajna)
https://www.dawn.com/news/1388361

Its possible

I had felt it was the U.S being cornered (strong word for it)
By Pakistan behind the scenes saying that Pakistan has enemies allowed to roam in Afghanistan and if you dont target them then expect Nothing from us

It is increasingly possible that we indeed are now targeting those enemies actively

 

[Handshake]

I was thinking the same as well. I think i mean i just think that maybe militaries from USA and Pakistan has reached to some points secretly and they started a massive action against terrorists on both sides but silently. I do not want to go much deeper but something smells fishy.

 

[coffee_cup]

DISCLAIMER: I am not claiming knowledge of these things. I am using publicly available data to see a pattern. I have documented drone strikes during the past year. Of note are the sets of strikes (4,5,6,7,8,9), (13,14), and (16,17).

In all two of three sets there is a pattern:
First, someone from the Haqqani Network is targeted very close to or inside Pakistan.
Second, almost immediately (within a day) someone from TTP is targeted on the Afghan side. Both of these times the targets have been rather important TTP commanders. Namely, Khorasani, and Sajna.

I am not usually who likes to speculate things like this but it seems very unlikely that USA is trying appease us by doing "complimentary strikes" on TTP, especially when the rhetoric coming out of the current administration is so harsh. Secondly, it seems the Pakistani side has been taking a stronger stand on drone strikes (an example of this is the statement by the Air Chief).

I am SPECULATING that we have decided to cross a line we hadn't crossed before (at least not so obviously). Every time there's a drone strike on the Haqqani Network on the Pakistani side, there's a "payback strike" on an important TTP commander on the Afghan Side. It would appear we always had the intelligence, and we did go and touch them physically when we could, but now we just send a drone if the target is in the border region. This has the following benefits:
- Deniability: No one is saying Pakistani drone strikes. Everyone will assume they are CIA strikes.
- Reduced Risk: No risk of endangering our operatives.
- Messaging: Send a message to the other side that we see you too, and can undermine your position too.
- Proportionate Response: This is the only reasonable response to a drone strike because you can't shoot down a US drone for a variety of reasons (they usually remain in Afghan Airspace, and could elicit a stronger US response if shot down)


I would love to read everyone's opinions on this. I wonder if I am putting too much faith in our ability lol.


Drone Strikes listed in chronological order (near Durrand Line):

1. April 27, 2017 (Pakistan, North-Wazirstan)
Target: TTP
https://www.dawn.com/news/1329594

2. June 13, 2017 (Pakistan, Hangu)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1339293

3. September 15, 2017 (Pakistan, Ghuz Garhi)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1357853
https://www.dawn.com/news/1358039

4. October 16, 2017 (Pakistan, Kurram Agency)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364209
ISPR denies this happened on Pakistani side.

5. October 16, 2017 (Afghanistan, Patkia)
Target: Unknown – no casualties
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364426

6. October 17, 2017 (Afghanistan, Shpola/ Pakistan, Ghuz Garhi: Disputed)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364400
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364314

7. October 18, 2017 (Afghanistan, Paktia)
Target: JuA (Umar Khalid Khorasani)
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364510

8. October 19, 2017 (Afghanistan, Paktia)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364833

9. October 20, 2017 (Afghanistan, Jawar Ser)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1365061

10. November 30, 2017 (Afghanistan, Patan)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1373844

11. December 19, 2017 (Pakistan, Mata Sangar)
Target: TTP
https://www.dawn.com/news/1377496

12. December 26, 2017 (Pakistan, Mata Sangar)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1378954
https://www.dawn.com/news/1379121

13. January 17, 2018 (Pakistan, Badshah Kot)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1383516

14. January 17, 2018 (Afghanistan, Khani Kila)
Target: Unkown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1383516

15. January 24, 2018 (Pakistan, Speen Thal Dapa Mamozai)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1384978

16. February 09, 2018 (Pakistan, Gorwek)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1388283

17. February 09, 2018 (Afghanistan, Kharh Tangi)
Target: TTP (Khan Said Sajna)
https://www.dawn.com/news/1388361

I just have one question, not directly related to the topic: Why chose an anti Pakistan media group to quote these strikes? There are surely other media available, why then DAWN?

 

[Verve]

DISCLAIMER: I am not claiming knowledge of these things. I am using publicly available data to see a pattern. I have documented drone strikes during the past year. Of note are the sets of strikes (4,5,6,7,8,9), (13,14), and (16,17).

In all two of three sets there is a pattern:
First, someone from the Haqqani Network is targeted very close to or inside Pakistan.
Second, almost immediately (within a day) someone from TTP is targeted on the Afghan side. Both of these times the targets have been rather important TTP commanders. Namely, Khorasani, and Sajna.

I am not usually who likes to speculate things like this but it seems very unlikely that USA is trying appease us by doing "complimentary strikes" on TTP, especially when the rhetoric coming out of the current administration is so harsh. Secondly, it seems the Pakistani side has been taking a stronger stand on drone strikes (an example of this is the statement by the Air Chief).

I am SPECULATING that we have decided to cross a line we hadn't crossed before (at least not so obviously). Every time there's a drone strike on the Haqqani Network on the Pakistani side, there's a "payback strike" on an important TTP commander on the Afghan Side. It would appear we always had the intelligence, and we did go and touch them physically when we could, but now we just send a drone if the target is in the border region. This has the following benefits:
- Deniability: No one is saying Pakistani drone strikes. Everyone will assume they are CIA strikes.
- Reduced Risk: No risk of endangering our operatives.
- Messaging: Send a message to the other side that we see you too, and can undermine your position too.
- Proportionate Response: This is the only reasonable response to a drone strike because you can't shoot down a US drone for a variety of reasons (they usually remain in Afghan Airspace, and could elicit a stronger US response if shot down)


I would love to read everyone's opinions on this. I wonder if I am putting too much faith in our ability lol.


Drone Strikes listed in chronological order (near Durrand Line):

1. April 27, 2017 (Pakistan, North-Wazirstan)
Target: TTP
https://www.dawn.com/news/1329594

2. June 13, 2017 (Pakistan, Hangu)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1339293

3. September 15, 2017 (Pakistan, Ghuz Garhi)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1357853
https://www.dawn.com/news/1358039

4. October 16, 2017 (Pakistan, Kurram Agency)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364209
ISPR denies this happened on Pakistani side.

5. October 16, 2017 (Afghanistan, Patkia)
Target: Unknown – no casualties
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364426

6. October 17, 2017 (Afghanistan, Shpola/ Pakistan, Ghuz Garhi: Disputed)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364400
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364314

7. October 18, 2017 (Afghanistan, Paktia)
Target: JuA (Umar Khalid Khorasani)
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364510

8. October 19, 2017 (Afghanistan, Paktia)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364833

9. October 20, 2017 (Afghanistan, Jawar Ser)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1365061

10. November 30, 2017 (Afghanistan, Patan)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1373844

11. December 19, 2017 (Pakistan, Mata Sangar)
Target: TTP
https://www.dawn.com/news/1377496

12. December 26, 2017 (Pakistan, Mata Sangar)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1378954
https://www.dawn.com/news/1379121

13. January 17, 2018 (Pakistan, Badshah Kot)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1383516

14. January 17, 2018 (Afghanistan, Khani Kila)
Target: Unkown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1383516

15. January 24, 2018 (Pakistan, Speen Thal Dapa Mamozai)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1384978

16. February 09, 2018 (Pakistan, Gorwek)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1388283

17. February 09, 2018 (Afghanistan, Kharh Tangi)
Target: TTP (Khan Said Sajna)
https://www.dawn.com/news/1388361

It may just be the case. Wouldn't be surprising if it wasn't. Game is being played quietly by our side and no need for public disclosure.

 

[Thanatos]

Interesting analysis. Good thing is Pakistan is getting rid of people who have been involved in mass killing of innocent Pakistanis.

 

[khail007]

Pakistan operates at least a squadron of Shahpar which can stay airborne for 7 hours and has a data link range of 250 km.

I can only speculate, but if the Shahpar is in service on such a scale then there is no reason why the Burraq isn't.

EDIT: In this picture from early 2015 you can spot at least 12 units of the Burraq:
View attachment 454472

But these all drones seems to be teeth less, if they are only for surveillance then which type we are having with strike capabilities.

 

[Verve]

which type we are having with strike capabilities.

Burraq drone that's armed with Barq missile!

 

[JamD]

But these all drones seems to be teeth less, if they are only for surveillance then which type we are having with strike capabilities.

Burraq is an armed drone.

I just have one question, not directly related to the topic: Why chose an anti Pakistan media group to quote these strikes? There are surely other media available, why then DAWN?

What difference does it make? Please don't derail the thread.

 

[Menace2Society]

There should be a 20km buffer zone in Afghanistan by creeping up through Afghan territory then pulling back to man it. Shoot on sight if not going through the border pass.

 

[war&peace]

DISCLAIMER: I am not claiming knowledge of these things. I am using publicly available data to see a pattern. I have documented drone strikes during the past year. Of note are the sets of strikes (4,5,6,7,8,9), (13,14), and (16,17).

In all two of three sets there is a pattern:
First, someone from the Haqqani Network is targeted very close to or inside Pakistan.
Second, almost immediately (within a day) someone from TTP is targeted on the Afghan side. Both of these times the targets have been rather important TTP commanders. Namely, Khorasani, and Sajna.

I am not usually who likes to speculate things like this but it seems very unlikely that USA is trying appease us by doing "complimentary strikes" on TTP, especially when the rhetoric coming out of the current administration is so harsh. Secondly, it seems the Pakistani side has been taking a stronger stand on drone strikes (an example of this is the statement by the Air Chief).

I am SPECULATING that we have decided to cross a line we hadn't crossed before (at least not so obviously). Every time there's a drone strike on the Haqqani Network on the Pakistani side, there's a "payback strike" on an important TTP commander on the Afghan Side. It would appear we always had the intelligence, and we did go and touch them physically when we could, but now we just send a drone if the target is in the border region. This has the following benefits:
- Deniability: No one is saying Pakistani drone strikes. Everyone will assume they are CIA strikes.
- Reduced Risk: No risk of endangering our operatives.
- Messaging: Send a message to the other side that we see you too, and can undermine your position too.
- Proportionate Response: This is the only reasonable response to a drone strike because you can't shoot down a US drone for a variety of reasons (they usually remain in Afghan Airspace, and could elicit a stronger US response if shot down)


I would love to read everyone's opinions on this. I wonder if I am putting too much faith in our ability lol.


Drone Strikes listed in chronological order (near Durrand Line):

1. April 27, 2017 (Pakistan, North-Wazirstan)
Target: TTP
https://www.dawn.com/news/1329594

2. June 13, 2017 (Pakistan, Hangu)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1339293

3. September 15, 2017 (Pakistan, Ghuz Garhi)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1357853
https://www.dawn.com/news/1358039

4. October 16, 2017 (Pakistan, Kurram Agency)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364209
ISPR denies this happened on Pakistani side.

5. October 16, 2017 (Afghanistan, Patkia)
Target: Unknown – no casualties
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364426

6. October 17, 2017 (Afghanistan, Shpola/ Pakistan, Ghuz Garhi: Disputed)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364400
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364314

7. October 18, 2017 (Afghanistan, Paktia)
Target: JuA (Umar Khalid Khorasani)
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364510

8. October 19, 2017 (Afghanistan, Paktia)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1364833

9. October 20, 2017 (Afghanistan, Jawar Ser)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1365061

10. November 30, 2017 (Afghanistan, Patan)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1373844

11. December 19, 2017 (Pakistan, Mata Sangar)
Target: TTP
https://www.dawn.com/news/1377496

12. December 26, 2017 (Pakistan, Mata Sangar)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1378954
https://www.dawn.com/news/1379121

13. January 17, 2018 (Pakistan, Badshah Kot)
Target: Unknown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1383516

14. January 17, 2018 (Afghanistan, Khani Kila)
Target: Unkown
https://www.dawn.com/news/1383516

15. January 24, 2018 (Pakistan, Speen Thal Dapa Mamozai)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1384978

16. February 09, 2018 (Pakistan, Gorwek)
Target: Haqqani Network
https://www.dawn.com/news/1388283

17. February 09, 2018 (Afghanistan, Kharh Tangi)
Target: TTP (Khan Said Sajna)
https://www.dawn.com/news/1388361

I will add to your comment that many forget that Pakistan has its own UCAV namely Buraq that carries two Burq missiles (equivalent of hell-fire missiles), in addition, Pakistan has a lot of UAVs from tactical to strategic both indigenously developed and imported.

 

[xyxmt]

dont show dont tell dont claim, that is Pakistani policy on enemy target