INS Vikramaditya poised to meet latest deadline

[Capt.Popeye]

@sancho how can you say the IN is "without real blue water capabilities"? And even if you beleive this I'm sure you'd agree the IN is building such a "true blue" capability and by 2020 the IN will be many times more Expedtionary and blue-water in nature.

I think there is a great deal of hype surrounding the term "Blue-Water Navy". As of now the IN's plans are sufficiently targeted towards the Blue-Water Navy that IN (or more precisely MoD) wants to be. IE to control SLOCs to India and passing India. If you think that IN's over-riding ambition now is to project power East of Singapore Straits; it is not so.
IN is strictly concentrating for now on the arc; Ras al Hadd, Bab el Mandeb, Ras Hafun, Seychelles, East Sumatera, Malacca Straits. That is Blue Water enough for now; it is certainly not Brown Water or even Greenish Waters.

BTW, the color Green is used to denote very rough seas in or around a storm where waves easily break over ships structures; viz. the term "Green Seas" is used for that.

 

[neehar]

Of course, that's also why I said that Vikramaditya will not be dead as stated earlier, but in a cost vs operational benefits comparison, the deal turns out to be very bad for us. No matter how good IN will be, the main threat for India are at our land borders, not in the coastal areas. The real game changer that is coming now won't be the new carriers, but INS Arihant, because it closes the deterrence gap that we had against China. Similarly, the biggest threat we pose to China with IN in mind, won't be our carriers, but the SSBNs and other subs with credible attack capabilities, because they are much harder to find and to destroy for them, then a carrier group. That's why I would have prefered Russian subs with Brahmos attack capability far more, than buying the Vikramaditya.

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according to a reliable source of mine the third of arihant is started with k-15 launch capability.dnt knw about brahmos though.any idea abt the progress of our scorpene project??

 

[sancho]

@sancho fair enough but this definition seems a little outdated or atleast its applications as no one could honestly say the UK RN is superior to the IN in reach and capabilities these days.

You might want to compare the number of amphibious and support ships they have, compared to IN:

List of active Royal Navy ships - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Royal Fleet Auxiliary - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


At Destroyers and Frigats they are on par and far superior at the nuclear sub fleet. Infact, the only advantage that we currently have is, that we still operate some Harriers, while they use their carriers only with helicopters and amphibious vessels.

If Countries like India, China or Russia can't be called a Blue Water Navy, than they certainly aren't Green Water Navy also, given that Australian, Brazilian, Indonesian, etc. countries also have Green Water Capabilities, but there is no comparison b/w later & the former.

They are certainly falling somewhere in b/w - maybe a BLUISH-GREENISH water Navy

The fact still remains though, that all of them lack in certain areas, compared to the US, France or the Royal navy wrt credible force projection to long distances. Russia has the subs and even aircraft carriers, but is building up new amphibious capabilities now. Brazil has an aircraft carrier, but lacks everything else, several nations now have LDPs or other amphibious ships, but lack the carriers and subs to protect them in long range missions.
IN now has a bit of everything, but you can't call that a credible blue water navy:

1 x carrier (INS Viraat)
1 x LDP (INS Jalashwa)
1 x SSN (INS Chakra)
A hand full support ships and some destroyers and frigats


Enough to protect our coastlines and the sea's in close ranges, but not for credible force projection, either we like the terms or not, we still need a decade to reach there.

according to a reliable source of mine the third of arihant is started with k-15 launch capability.dnt knw about brahmos though.any idea abt the progress of our scorpene project??

No, the reports about the Scorpene production are too confusing at the moment, we have to wait and see for some offical reports of IN or MoD.

 

[neehar]

You might want to compare the number of amphibious and support ships they have, compared to IN:

List of active Royal Navy ships - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Royal Fleet Auxiliary - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


At Destroyers and Frigats they are on par and far superior at the nuclear sub fleet. Infact, the only advantage that we currently have is, that we still operate some Harriers, while they use their carriers only with helicopters and amphibious vessels.




The fact still remains though, that all of them lack in certain areas, compared to the US, France or the Royal navy wrt credible force projection to long distances. Russia has the subs and even aircraft carriers, but is building up new amphibious capabilities now. Brazil has an aircraft carrier, but lacks everything else, several nations now have LDPs or other amphibious ships, but lack the carriers and subs to protect them in long range missions.
IN now has a bit of everything, but you can't call that a credible blue water navy:

1 x carrier (INS Viraat)
1 x LDP (INS Jalashwa)
1 x SSN (INS Chakra)
A hand full support ships and some destroyers and frigats


Enough to protect our coastlines and the sea's in close ranges, but not for credible force projection, either we like the terms or not, we still need a decade to reach there.

but i dont think except a few border skrimishes we're going to any war especially a naval warfare.as u said by the end of a decade we'll have one of the most powerful navies in the world.apart from talwar class frigates anyother in work??

 

[sancho]

IN is strictly concentrating for now on the arc; Ras al Hadd, Bab el Mandeb, Ras Hafun, Seychelles, East Sumatera, Malacca Straits. That is Blue Water enough for now

http://www10.pic-upload.de/26.04.13/j5oxgfkkxxh.jpg


That's the point, "good enough", or even exceeding to our current needs and the threat perception in this area, but not good enough to be called a blue water navy in comparison to other international navies and to operate on a global level, or against credible opponents.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

http://www10.pic-upload.de/26.04.13/j5oxgfkkxxh.jpg


That's the point, "good enough", or even exceeding to our current needs and the threat perception in this area, but not good enough to be called a blue water navy in comparison to other international navies and to operate on a global level, or against credible opponents.

It is good enough to meet India's present requrements as well as a decade in the future. There is no "comparison race" on.
As for the "credible opponents"; pray, who might they be?

 

[sancho]

There is no "comparison race" on.
As for the "credible opponents"; pray, who might they be?

No race, but our threat perceptions requires to have the capability to attack targets in the east as well, which alone is a tough task and needs capable vessels, subs and fighters. None of them is available as of now, not even the necessary support fleet, which would be the base to operate a credible force in greater distances.
So SS(G)Ns, SSBNs, IAC 2 and 5th gen carrier fighter, with a sufficient number of support vessels will be vital for IN, if force projection and "real" blue water capabilities are the aim, beyond the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

No race, but our threat perceptions requires to have the capability to attack targets in the east as well, which alone is a tough task and needs capable vessels, subs and fighters. None of them is available as of now, not even the necessary support fleet, which would be the base to operate a credible force in greater distances.
So SS(G)Ns, SSBNs, IAC 2 and 5th gen carrier fighter, with a sufficient number of support vessels will be vital for IN, if force projection and "real" blue water capabilities are the aim, beyond the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

@sancho; do the IN's present threat perceptions see targets beyond the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal? Whatever targets they see; they will tackle within these AORs or to be precise; within the arc that I outlined earlier. And do that in a completely effective manner.

One principle of warfare (the most important one) is to keep one's conflicts in one's own area of advantage. India is not looking to play a game of "Military Monopoly".

 

[sancho]

@sancho; do the IN's present threat perceptions see targets beyond the Arabian Sea or Bay of Bengal? Whatever targets they see; they will tackle within these AORs or to be precise; within the arc that I outlined earlier. And do that in a completely effective manner.

Of course, as I said China and PLAN! But currently IN simply is only capable of defending against PLAN in the mentioned areas, not of projecting power towards China or the South Chinese Sea. Even you complained that we play it defensive only and not offensive, but first you need offensive capabilities right? The fact is, today we have no capabilities to attack
PLAN bases in the South Chinese Sea, let alone to pose a threat to any important target in East China. That's where the SSBNs, SSGNs and IAC 2 in future will be a game changers!

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Of course, as I said China and PLAN! But currently IN simply is only capable of defending against PLAN in the mentioned areas, not of projecting power towards China or the South Chinese Sea. Even you complained that we play it defensive only and not offensive, but first you need offensive capabilities right? The fact is, today we have no capabilities to attack
PLAN bases in the South Chinese Sea, let alone to pose a threat to any important target in East China. That's where the SSBNs, SSGNs and IAC 2 in future will be a game changers!

@sancho; when have I complained that we only play it defensive? Can you quote any post of mine saying that?

If I were to agree and go along with your proposition that IN will and must mount an Expeditionary Force; East of Singapore Straits, then I will be negating all the basic tenets of strategic and tactical thinking that I've learnt.
All those SSGNs and CBGs need to pass through either Singapore Straits or Selat Sunda to reach the SCS. Other Nations border that littoral area. They are not waiting to get caught in the cross-fire of a Indo-Chinese conflict; or are they?
Plus attempts to operate Fleets there work against first principles of warfare, the part that you conveniently overlooked in quoting my post, to put forth your reaction.
So again, let me quote myself:

One principle of warfare (the most important one) is to keep one's conflicts in one's own area of advantage. India is not looking to play a game of "Military Monopoly".

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian...sed-meet-latest-deadline-4.html#ixzz2RfMb2O82

Now so far as the SSBNs are concerned, they can work very well when they are fully deployed again China from the Bay of Bengal. They need not even cross the Malacca Straits.

 

[sancho]

@sancho; when have I complained that we only play it defensive? Can you quote any post of mine saying that?

That is a reason; but is not the true reason. The Indian policy is still defensive; not offensive.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian...sea-india-s-role-america-s-2.html#post4205551

Did I get you wrong here?

Plus attempts to operate Fleets there work against first principles of warfare, the part that you conveniently overlooked in quoting my post, to put forth your reaction.

I didn't overlooked it, I agree to it in case of defensive, since we can support naval forces with land based once in our areas, but as you said, but that is not the only principle of warfare like you intend, since avoiding the fight of each unit alone, by destroying bases, ports, infrastructure in first place is a key as well! To do this, you need to project power to the area of the enemy and not only to wait till it can provide it's full force against us. Do you really think IAF wants to fight PLAAF over Indian airspace 1 on 1, or to destroy enemy airbases in Tibet areas as early as possible to limit the number of enemies? The latter of course and the same goes for IN, but without capable force that can attack PLAN bases or fleets in their area that's not possible.

Now so far as the SSBNs are concerned, they can work very well when they are fully deployed again China from the Bay of Bengal. They need not even cross the Malacca Straits.

That's plain wrong, especially with our current balistic missiles:

With the next generation of SSBNs and balistic missiles maybe, but even then the aim is not only to hide your nuclear missiles, but to provide the enemy with limited response time. Therefor moving the SSBNs closer to their areas will remain to be important.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian...sea-india-s-role-america-s-2.html#post4205551

Did I get you wrong here?

I didn't overlooked it, I agree to it in case of defensive, since we can support naval forces with land based once in our areas, but as you said, but that is not the only principle of warfare like you intend, since avoiding the fight of each unit alone, by destroying bases, ports, infrastructure in first place is a key as well! To do this, you need to project power to the area of the enemy and not only to wait till it can provide it's full force against us. Do you really think IAF wants to fight PLAAF over Indian airspace 1 on 1, or to destroy enemy airbases in Tibet areas as early as possible to limit the number of enemies? The latter of course and the same goes for IN, but without capable force that can attack PLAN bases or fleets in their area that's not possible.

That's plain wrong, especially with our current balistic missiles:

With the next generation of SSBNs and balistic missiles maybe, but even then the aim is not only to hide your nuclear missiles, but to provide the enemy with limited response time. Therefor moving the SSBNs closer to their areas will remain to be important.

WRT the first underlined part; you were incorrect in your assesment. I stated a fact, did not voice a complaint.

WRT the second underlined part: read my post- it says "Now so far as the SSBNs are concerned, they can work very well when they are fully deployed against China from the Bay of Bengal. They need not even cross the Malacca Straits.
I chose my words carefully when I wrote that. India now has neither a SSBN nor a SLBM. Both will mature approx. together.

Sancho; the meaning of what I wrote earlier does not seem to have sunk in yet; "All those SSGNs and CBGs need to pass through either Singapore Straits or Selat Sunda to reach the SCS. Other Nations border that littoral area. They are not waiting to get caught in the cross-fire of a Indo-Chinese conflict; or are they?"

Pick up any school-atlas and look at the geography. There are many coastal/littoral states there who exercise sovereignity over the waters contained in the region. One can't just pass Ocean Fleets or start wars from there. Also apply the requirements of UNCLOS, the littoral Seas are not "free-for-all" areas.
One more point; since I am familiar with those areas, which I need to inform you about. The Passages in Malacca Straits and Selat Sunda are not even deep enough to allow a Submarine to pass submerged. So the whole world gets to know what you are doing.

The only place where Indian CBGs and SSNs can deploy (to carry out your plans) then is in the North Pacific, East of Japan which will need military alliances to operate in War Operations. Wars are very different from "Showing the Flag" cruises.
That deployment will break Rule#1 then, viz: "One principle of warfare (the most important one) is to keep one's conflicts in one's own area of advantage."

Only a Mad Admiral will consider doing that.

 

[neehar]

WRT the first underlined part; you were incorrect in your assesment. I stated a fact, did not voice a complaint.

WRT the second underlined part: read my post- it says "Now so far as the SSBNs are concerned, they can work very well when they are fully deployed against China from the Bay of Bengal. They need not even cross the Malacca Straits.
I chose my words carefully when I wrote that. India now has neither a SSBN nor a SLBM. Both will mature approx. together.

Sancho; the meaning of what I wrote earlier does not seem to have sunk in yet; "All those SSGNs and CBGs need to pass through either Singapore Straits or Selat Sunda to reach the SCS. Other Nations border that littoral area. They are not waiting to get caught in the cross-fire of a Indo-Chinese conflict; or are they?"

Pick up any school-atlas and look at the geography. There are many coastal/littoral states there who exercise sovereignity over the waters contained in the region. One can't just pass Ocean Fleets or start wars from there. Also apply the requirements of UNCLOS, the littoral Seas are not "free-for-all" areas.
One more point; since I am familiar with those areas, which I need to inform you about. The Passages in Malacca Straits and Selat Sunda are not even deep enough to allow a Submarine to pass submerged. So the whole world gets to know what you are doing.

The only place where Indian CBGs and SSNs can deploy (to carry out your plans) then is in the North Pacific, East of Japan which will need military alliances to operate in War Operations. Wars are very different from "Showing the Flag" cruises.
That deployment will break Rule#1 then, viz: "One principle of warfare (the most important one) is to keep one's conflicts in one's own area of advantage."

Only a Mad Admiral will consider doing that.

so does that round up to this conclusion that we cannot take china in scs.and our aspiratioins and strengths are in ior??cant agree with u more..except the oil blocs of vietnam i dont think india is interested in any part of scs.and we dont need to take an offensive position in their seas.thats rises another curious question in me..whether they could take us down in IOR with the present capabilities
??

 

[Capt.Popeye]

so does that round up to this conclusion that we cannot take china in scs.and our aspiratioins and strengths are in ior??cant agree with u more..except the oil blocs of vietnam i dont think india is interested in any part of scs.and we dont need to take an offensive position in their seas.thats rises another curious question in me..whether they could take us down in IOR with the present capabilities
??

You are welcome to draw your OWN conclusions; ideally well-considered conclusions. I put forth both the principles and practical issues that attach to the idea of waging a War from East of Singapore Straits.

IOR or to be precise the area from Gulf of Oman-Red Sea entrance-Horn of Africa-Seychelles/Reunion-Sumatera-Malacca Straits is the favorable area of operation for the IN even just now. That should help you to think through to your conclusions.

About the Oil blocks off Viet Nam. That is Viet Nam's area. India cannot go tramping there till asked to by Viet Nam.

 

[neehar]

You are welcome to draw your OWN conclusions; ideally well-considered conclusions. I put forth both the principles and practical issues that attach to the idea of waging a War from East of Singapore Straits.

IOR or to be precise the area from Gulf of Oman-Red Sea entrance-Horn of Africa-Seychelles/Reunion-Sumatera-Malacca Straits is the favorable area of operation for the IN even just now. That should help you to think through to your conclusions.

About the Oil blocks off Viet Nam. That is Viet Nam's area. India cannot go tramping there till asked to by Viet Nam.

gotcha..


can u please sum up the current projects in the navy and predict it a decade or 2 from now?