India has made another step in seemingly inexorable military rise on the technological crutches provided by the Russians in nuclear submarine technology. This deployment of the nuclear-powered submarines can have serious consequences for the strategic stability of the region.
As India is the worlds top importer of major conventional weapons and plans to spend over USD 100 billion in this sector in next 5-10 years. For year 2013-2014, there has been a 5.3% increase in the Indian defense budget. Previously, an increase of more than 17% in the defense budget (year 2012-2013) has been recorded with an allocation of USD 40.44 billion in this sector.
This prevalent economic equation obviously facilitates India to shift the balance of power in its favor thereby not only provoking Pakistan to respond in kind but would also start affecting the threat calculus of other nuclear powers.
With the induction of the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) INS Arihant and future plans of adding three more indigenously-built SSBNs to Indias naval forces by 2025, New Delhi is posturing to instigate a strategic shift in the Indian Ocean and even beyond.
The induction of the Arihant would be destabilizing because it will increase its tendency to pre-empt a nuclear attack. Though India has a so-called nuclear first use pledge, it does not take similar Chinese policy as credible.
Likewise, its strategy of fighting a conventional war under nuclear overhang is tantamount to provoke Pakistan to nuclear response and negates the essence of NFU policy that New Delhi tries to sell. Its ballistic missile defense plan would also increase its proclivity to risk taking because India will have this false sense of security against ballistic missiles that it may feel confident to destroy in their flight path.
Indian Navys long term acquisition plans include three SSBN and six SSN submarines will affect the strategic equilibrium between India and Pakistan. Indian Navy is on a massive surge plan to construct a blue water flotilla. Its massive development plans include the acquirement of both indigenous and leased nuclear powered submarines and various other platforms capable of launching nuclear weapons i.e. delivering nuclear weapons from the air, surface and sub-surface thus confirming its second strike capability.
The Indian Navys other acquisitions include the aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov, renamed as INS Vikramaditya with 16 MiG-29K/KUBs and 6 to 8 Ka-31 AEW helicopters. India is also constructing 3 Indigenous Aircraft Carriers for the IN. It also plans to construct 3 destroyers of Kolkata class and Guided Missile Frigates, four ASW Corvettes, four 4 Saryu class Operational Patrol Vessels, four Landing Platform Docks, and acquire two Osprey Class Mine Hunters and eight P8-I Long Range Maritime Patrol Aircraft from USA, besides developing additional strategic naval bases. These developments will further destabilize the strategic stability of the region.
INS Arihant And Regional Stability - Analysis Eurasia Review
