Information Pool & Analysis on Pakistan's AF Aspiration for Su-35 / Su-35S - FLANKER-E

[volatile]

manufacturing modern jet engines is not within pakistan's industrial capacity

Hi do you have any source or research on the Pakistani Industrial capacity ?

 

[araz]

The news does not say that the deal has been finalized yet
Plus the Russians will never sell us the AL41 engines because of Indian lobbying. Most likely the deal will involve just the airframes

A PLANE WITHOUT AN ENGINE?????? I could go around shouting ANOTHER LEMON!!!!!!
A

Probably RD-93 because the Russians and Indians have apparently no objections to the sale of those

Come on.You just cant change engines on fighters like that. IFFFFFFF the SU comes to PAF it will come with the engine.HOwever the capability to mount Chinese weapons would save us a nightmare with our inventory.
A

sir as officials give 2 shits of our trolling here ? we sit or sleep officials are doing their work . abut zarvan stomach he need to drink lassi then

Or Isabghol ki Bhuusi!! Zarvan is a good guy and like a little brother to all of us. He gets a bit excited from time to time. People need to understand that a lot can go wrong between talks and trial and final negotiations and that is why it takes 2-5 yrs for deals to mature.The indian Beaurocracy has been at it for a decade which might well be a record, but the fact remains that deals take long to mature. So if you are impatient and start jumping up and down over eveery trial , inuendo, or talk then you will get trolled. However break the news on time and you are the king of the jungle. The best thing is to only talk once the deal is about to be signed.
A

Looking forward for your article



3 Eminent Political figures are involved in this deal, plus Russia is looking forward to develop relations with Pakistan. Securing such major deal at initial stage is good shot. I hope this issue must have been addressed as ACM Sohail Awan has policy of securing Supply chain and spare parts of what ever system he follow for PAF.

This is where we have major issues with Russia. In case of SU35 there may be a face saving solution in that the Chinese planes will mean a supply chain and perhaps even local parts manufacturing which might come in handy. Sooner or later a Chinese copy of the 35 will emerge. HOWEVER I stil doubt we will hear anything about it for a couple of years.
A

 

[Tipu7]

This is where we have major issues with Russia. In case of SU35 there may be a face saving solution in that the Chinese planes will mean a supply chain and perhaps even local parts manufacturing which might come in handy. Sooner or later a Chinese copy of the 35 will emerge. HOWEVER I stil doubt we will hear anything about it for a couple of years.
A

Many claim that Chinese J11D is answer to Su35....... if true, then Clone is already here.
Interesting thing is, both China & Pakistan will operate Su35 and it will be difficult for Russia to compromise their relations with both of them at pressure of some one......
Let's wait more, May be we are talking about Su35 with Chinese AESA & weapon package. May be it will be pure Russian product.
May be deal will collapse in advance stages, but we should remain calm untill PAF share details openly. This will occur at time when Pakistan will be confident that this deal is out of Indian approach for sabotage .....

 

[The Eagle]

This will occur at time when Pakistan will be confident that this deal is out of Indian approach for sabotage ....

I see it as "Let the Rafale be finalized".

 

[volatile]

Seems something going on .PAF needs 4.5 Gen Air craft as currently our top of the line AC F16/F17 both are 4 Gen .
Logic suggests .
SU 35/Mig 35 interests is real

4.5 Gen Role
Provide Air superiority in sea/and in land (2020 to 2030)
Work as Second tier Aircraft (2030 to 2045)
5th Gen payload limitation and 4.5 Gen acts as bomb trucks

Scope for Russian Jets
SU35 offers more range /payload and threat to any theatre /Sea/deep penetrations .
Mig 35 If chosen should come with Engine commonality with thunder RD93 (which we knew reliable) .
RD 93 engine overhauling establishment already discussed with Russians

Issues
Technical :
PAF has history of working on Chinese systems which are derived from Russia so shouldn't be such a big challenge
AL series engines are going to evolution stage with recent variants over coming many of the defects due to manufacturing issues .So Post SU30 engines reliability should improve .

Financial
Estimated cost of 70 Mil a piece cheaper than Rafale/Typhoon .500 Mil per Annum allocation will result in 6 to 7 platforms a year .(Manageable)
Second route is to engage Financial institutions from Russia act as mediator paying Russians and setting up installments for Pakistan charging interest (quite possible check Gripen Sales financial models)
China reportedly ordered 2 Billion planes for 24 copies can easily give extra 24

Sanctions
If applied Chinese are managing a large inventory for flankers and every thing so that can be a route .

Conclusion
Pak is waiting for US to reject all of their request for weaponry not to displease India (I think we are trying to avoid any confrontation with US at the moment) but F16 sale is still on with full payment.
Russian platforms will come once F16 offer will be taken away or dead .
Pakistan interest in this manner is there and no denial to it but opening up Russian systems is not only technical/financial but it gives a geostrategic signal which camp you are in .

In today's world "Either you are with us or against us" no neutralities .

 

[araz]

You used my favorite word, Logic.

I will not troll you anymore.

My take,

Modi sarkar has over played it's hand.
Russia has a legacy of pride and heritage, that they will consider before anything else.

This sukhoi deal may never happen, which is fine.

however India was russia's source of cash since many decades. Now western arm manufacturers are eating
out of that pie which is india's defense budget. Russians are getting the 2nd spoils.
Whereas top dollars are going westwards.
It's an insult to a country which was your defense partner for too long, too deep.

When George bush came , I told the indians it is now your turn to be in the middle of hug of death.

Now you will see it happen.

Modi Sarkar will burn and destroy excellent work done by Indian diplomats since decades.

I say that as a Pakistani.

The red bear is a player in the arena as much as the Chinese and the US are. As US shores up india against China, we will see how the game pans out.
For a relatively small market like Pakistan wwill the Red bear shrug off the cash rich Indian Cow? I somehow doubt that.
The real question is how much of a threat does the red bear feel from the US push into the Chinese backyard. If it decides that the time is right to support the Chinese against their arch enemy and play the big game in the Indo Pak arena, so their hands remain clean(relativley!!!) they will venture in. There are huge gians to be made from a US retreat in the South China Sea and a combined venture shares the risk of any fallout.If the US retreats from here where would the next line be drawn??? The middle East ? How relevant will the oil reserves remain for the next 2-3 decades??
So in sahort the Rusasian claculus is a difficult one to gauge. Needless to say they have no love lost for Pakistan and if they can find a way to cripple us in the bargain and gain a victory without engaging in a war then all the more better for them. However the Pakistani strategist will be looking at its options, pros and cons, the risks and whether these could somehow be mitigated(the Chinese angle comes to mind again).I would say iffff at all we buy from the Red bear, we will probably buy a hybrid platofrm with capabilities incorporated from multiple vendors and the Chinese assuring us a smooth supply chain of spares or even perhps limited manufacturing capabilities for over haul and depot level maintenance. This is a very far fetched idea still and this is how I would be evaluating it.
As to Putin visiting, you dont get him to visit over a poxy promise. Offer him hard cash and a promise of a done deal and see how he comes running.
My 2 paisas worth.
A

I see it as "Let the Rafale be finalized".

This is the biggest bug bear in the whole scenario. Somehow I dont see this deal happenning for another 2 years and if the deal from the US is juicy enough India may yet ditch the French and go for US hardware manufactured locally. The advantages are immense , the price being a major one plus the opportunity to build top notch hardware in house. So India will procrastinate and the French will have their balls squeezed till there is no juice left in them. Strategically this has been a great game. Technically the idea of 40 platforms at 8 billion never made any sense. So much as we poke fun at them, the strategy is sound, in fact brilliant as you have deprived the main adversary of weapons from 2 sources for over a decade, and worthy of praise.
A

 

[Umair Nawaz]

The red bear is a player in the arena as much as the Chinese and the US are. As US shores up india against China, we will see how the game pans out.
For a relatively small market like Pakistan wwill the Red bear shrug off the cash rich Indian Cow? I somehow doubt that.
The real question is how much of a threat does the red bear feel from the US push into the Chinese backyard. If it decides that the time is right to support the Chinese against their arch enemy and play the big game in the Indo Pak arena, so their hands remain clean(relativley!!!) they will venture in. There are huge gians to be made from a US retreat in the South China Sea and a combined venture shares the risk of any fallout.If the US retreats from here where would the next line be drawn??? The middle East ? How relevant will the oil reserves remain for the next 2-3 decades??
So in sahort the Rusasian claculus is a difficult one to gauge. Needless to say they have no love lost for Pakistan and if they can find a way to cripple us in the bargain and gain a victory without engaging in a war then all the more better for them. However the Pakistani strategist will be looking at its options, pros and cons, the risks and whether these could somehow be mitigated(the Chinese angle comes to mind again).I would say iffff at all we buy from the Red bear, we will probably buy a hybrid platofrm with capabilities incorporated from multiple vendors and the Chinese assuring us a smooth supply chain of spares or even perhps limited manufacturing capabilities for over haul and depot level maintenance. This is a very far fetched idea still and this is how I would be evaluating it.
As to Putin visiting, you dont get him to visit over a poxy promise. Offer him hard cash and a promise of a done deal and see how he comes running.
My 2 paisas worth.
A


This is the biggest bug bear in the whole scenario. Somehow I dont see this deal happenning for another 2 years and if the deal from the US is juicy enough India may yet ditch the French and go for US hardware manufactured locally. The advantages are immense , the price being a major one plus the opportunity to build top notch hardware in house. So India will procrastinate and the French will have their balls squeezed till there is no juice left in them. Strategically this has been a great game. Technically the idea of 40 platforms at 8 billion never made any sense. So much as we poke fun at them, the strategy is sound, in fact brilliant as you have deprived the main adversary of weapons from 2 sources for over a decade, and worthy of praise.
A

refer to post 189 for my take on this.

 

[araz]

Hi do you have any source or research on the Pakistani Industrial capacity ?

The poster is right.We cannot manufacture engine parts beyond some simple bits.

 

[asad71]

A patriotic GOB would also opt for the same. Of course we have the cash.

 

[muhammadali233]

A patriotic GOB would also opt for the same. Of course we have the cash.

Who you are referring to?

 

[The Eagle]

This is the biggest bug bear in the whole scenario. Somehow I dont see this deal happenning for another 2 years and if the deal from the US is juicy enough India may yet ditch the French and go for US hardware manufactured locally. The advantages are immense , the price being a major one plus the opportunity to build top notch hardware in house. So India will procrastinate and the French will have their balls squeezed till there is no juice left in them. Strategically this has been a great game. Technically the idea of 40 platforms at 8 billion never made any sense. So much as we poke fun at them, the strategy is sound, in fact brilliant as you have deprived the main adversary of weapons from 2 sources for over a decade, and worthy of praise.
A

Sir, you have stated pretty much what is happening. Who knows who is playing with whom and personally speaking, I can see that Rafal and US with make in India, would be like final push for bear to join others in this arena. French will never fall for just those 8b we all know and such price is a divergent though in both cases (French or US) we will be benefiting as well. The game is played well. So as I said, let the rival fall for it, we will be having what we need that too in shape of single stone for 2 birds. No matter what others says, our shopping depends on dire need, threat perception and reality and circumstances around and till then, enjoy the coffee. Furthermore, India's deals are going to change the shape of geopolitics as well.

 

[war&peace]

you have deprived the main adversary of weapons from 2 sources for over a decade, and worthy of praise.

You raised good points in your post. But as far as the denial part is concerned, the blame to equally to be shared by the main adversary (Pakistan) for the situation for whatever reasons, we should take the responsibility.

 

[Areesh]

Who you are referring to?

BD government I think

 

[Michael Corleone]

now another question

how is su-35?

anything better than what you guys and india have... if china's deal for su35 is done... then yall are basically having a fifth gen fighter without stealth.

 

[muhammadali233]

anything better than what you guys and india have... if china's deal for su35 is done... then yall are basically having a fifth gen fighter without stealth.

SU-35 will be for navy role to replace old 40 mirage 5 used by the naval airforce.
Basically to be a 5th gen,you need to have a high degree of stealth,Rafale,EFT2k,F-15E have a degree of stealth in them but it doens't make em 5th gen.
Pak is getting 5th by 2020,mark thy words.TFX and J-31 by 2025,till then SU-35 will fill the gap.

Seems something going on .PAF needs 4.5 Gen Air craft as currently our top of the line AC F16/F17 both are 4 Gen .
Logic suggests .
SU 35/Mig 35 interests is real

4.5 Gen Role
Provide Air superiority in sea/and in land (2020 to 2030)
Work as Second tier Aircraft (2030 to 2045)
5th Gen payload limitation and 4.5 Gen acts as bomb trucks

Scope for Russian Jets
SU35 offers more range /payload and threat to any theatre /Sea/deep penetrations .
Mig 35 If chosen should come with Engine commonality with thunder RD93 (which we knew reliable) .
RD 93 engine overhauling establishment already discussed with Russians

Issues
Technical :
PAF has history of working on Chinese systems which are derived from Russia so shouldn't be such a big challenge
AL series engines are going to evolution stage with recent variants over coming many of the defects due to manufacturing issues .So Post SU30 engines reliability should improve .

Financial
Estimated cost of 70 Mil a piece cheaper than Rafale/Typhoon .500 Mil per Annum allocation will result in 6 to 7 platforms a year .(Manageable)
Second route is to engage Financial institutions from Russia act as mediator paying Russians and setting up installments for Pakistan charging interest (quite possible check Gripen Sales financial models)
China reportedly ordered 2 Billion planes for 24 copies can easily give extra 24

Sanctions
If applied Chinese are managing a large inventory for flankers and every thing so that can be a route .

Conclusion
Pak is waiting for US to reject all of their request for weaponry not to displease India (I think we are trying to avoid any confrontation with US at the moment) but F16 sale is still on with full payment.
Russian platforms will come once F16 offer will be taken away or dead .
Pakistan interest in this manner is there and no denial to it but opening up Russian systems is not only technical/financial but it gives a geostrategic signal which camp you are in .

In today's world "Either you are with us or against us" no neutralities .

Su-35 for chinese costed less as they already had the infrastructure to build and maintain similar platforms.Pak will doing this from scratch intial batch will costing a whole lot more,125 a piece or even more,84 million is just for the plane,spares,engines,expertise,training another 50 million/plane.Just the engine AL-41 is one expensive engine,RD-93 basically a 70's tech jet costs 3million$ a piece,Al-41 has thrust vectoring,offers super cruise.
Price will get down after 2 squadrons worth of jets have been delivered,around 36 jets.
Sanctions won't be much of a problem in the procurement of Su-35,only delays can make situation worse,Pak needs to be carefull in ordering,it will better order less but order alot more spares.