Indonesia’s Markets Stand Out as ‘Unusual Haven’ in EM Selloff (Bloomberg)

[Indos]

At the Beginning of 2023, Foreign Capital Inflows of IDR 8.05 Trillion​

1 hour ago

KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. There is foreign capital inflows to domestic financial markets in early 2023.

Based on transaction data compiled by Bank Indonesia (BI) for the period 2nd January 2023 to 5th January 2023, non-resident investors booked a net buy totalling Rp 8.05 trillion.

Executive Director, Head of Communication Department of BI Erwin Haryono revealed that foreign capital flows were monitored in the government securities (SBN) market, but foreign investors exited the stock market.

Also Read: Foreign Funds Roll Out New Portfolio Rotation to East Asia

"Non-residents bought a net of IDR 9.74 trillion in the SBN market but sold a net of IDR 1.68 trillion in the stock market," Erwin wrote in his statement, Friday (6/1).

In line with the influx of foreign capital into domestic financial markets, investment risks in Indonesia have been observed to decrease.

This can be seen from Indonesia's 5-year credit default swap (CDS) premium, which fell to 95.01bps on 5th January 2023 from 101.23bps on 30th December 2023.

Consequently, based on settlement data from early 2023 to 5th January 2023, non-residents bought a net of Rp 6.68 trillion in the SBN market and a net sell totaling Rp 2.91 trillion in the stock market.

Awal Tahun 2023, Arus Modal Asing Masuk Rp 8,05 Triliun

 

[Indos]

Indonesia's budget deficit narrows sharply amid strong revenues​

Credit: REUTERS/BEAWIHARTA
December 20, 2022 — 04:32 am EST

Written by Gayatri Suroyo, Fransiska Nangoy, Bernadette Christina Munthe for Reuters ->
Adds minister's quote, comments by analysts

JAKARTA, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Indonesia's fiscal deficit as of Dec. 14 was equal to 1.22% of gross domestic product, much smaller than the latest government outlook, the finance minister said on Tuesday, amid strong revenue collection and good budget discipline.

The data was hailed by some analysts as good fiscal management, after the government recorded large deficits in 2021 and 2020 to help Southeast Asia's largest economy navigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Indonesia booked a fiscal deficit of 237.7 trillion rupiah ($15.24 billion)or 1.22% of GDP as of mid-December, Sri Mulyani Indrawati told an online news conference.

That was much narrower than the revised budget deficit for full-year 2022 of 4.5% of GDP and officials' latest guidance of a deficit of around 3% this year.

Last year's fiscal deficit was 4.6%, while 2020's was 6.1%.

"The deficit was much smaller than what we planned for," Sri Mulyani said, without providing a full-year estimate.

"This shows that our budget has become healthier."

Total revenue in the same period was 2,479.9 trillion rupiah, up 37% from last year and higher than the target for 2022, boosted by high commodity prices, economic recovery from the pandemic and a hike in the value added tax (VAT) rate.

Total spending amounted to 2,717.6 trillion rupiah, up 12% from 2021, but representing just 87.5% of the year's budget.

Spending is expected to rise in the last few days of 2022, with some fuel subsidies and bills for projects like construction for the planned new capital city yet to be paid, said the ministry's director general of budget Isa Rachmatarwata.

The government had excess cash of 232.2 trillion rupiah as of Dec. 14. Officials have previously said this could be carried over to next year to lower the 2023 bond sale target.

Fakhrul Fulvian, an economist with brokerage Trimegah Sekuritas in Jakarta, said the small deficit reflected a commitment for fiscal discipline.

Handy Yunianto, head of fixed income at Mandiri Sekuritas, said: "This should be positive for the bond market and sovereign ratings".

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/indonesias-budget-deficit-narrows-sharply-amid-strong-revenues

 

[Indos]

Indonesia raises $3 bln in U.S. dollar bonds - term sheet​

SYDNEY, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Indonesia has raised $3 billion in a U.S. dollar bond issuance, according to a term sheet seen by Reuters on Thursday.

The government issued the bonds in five, 10 and 30 year tranches which raised $1 billion, $1.25 billion and $750 million respectively, the term sheet showed.

Indonesia's finance ministry debt department did not respond to a request for comment from Reuters.

There were final orders worth $3.6 billion for the five year bond, $4.7 billion for the 10 year and $6.15 billion for the longest dated tranche, details from one of the banks working on the deal showed.

Final yields were set at 4.8% for the five year, 5.1% for 10 years and 5.75% for the 30 year bond.

(Reporting by Scott Murdoch in Sydney and Gayatri Suroyo in Jakarta; Editing by Christopher Cushing)

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/indonesia-raises-$3-bln-in-u.s.-dollar-bonds-term-sheet

 

[Indos]

IMF Latest Projection for Indonesian economy in 2023

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/IDN

 

[Indos]

Indonesia raises $1.52 bln in debt auction​

January 17, 2023 — 05:23 am EST
Written by Stefanno Sulaiman for Reuters ->

JAKARTA, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Indonesia raised 23 trillion rupiah ($1.52 billion) in a bond auction on Tuesday, matching its indicative target, the finance ministry said.

Total incoming bids were 59.04 trillion rupiah, or more than double the previous auction on Jan. 3 at 28.32 trillion rupiah.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/indonesia-raises-$1.52-bln-in-debt-auction

 

[Indos]

Foreigners Flock to Indonesian Bonds Amid Signs of Peak US Rates​

Matthew Burgess and Marcus Wong
Wed, January 18, 2023 at 1:03 PM GMT+7

(Bloomberg) -- Overseas investors have returned to Indonesia’s bonds en masse, a shift which has helped spur gains in the rupiah.

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Global funds snapped up about 47% of bonds at a primary auction on Tuesday, the most since June 2019, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This adds to $4.7 billion of foreign inflows in the secondary market since November, set for the biggest three-month inflow since the first quarter of 2019, the data show.


“Foreign bid was strong at the auction due to a combination of better sentiment and positioning,” said Winson Phoon, head of fixed-income research at Maybank Securities Pte in Singapore. “Foreign funds had been trimming their positions for the better part of 2022 before a turnaround from November amid signs of peaking inflation and rates in the US.”

The return of money from overseas has helped fuel a rally in the rupiah, which had fallen behind as emerging-market currencies rebounded on bets for a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Read: Emerging-Market Bond Laggard Asia Is Primed for Rebound in 2023

Indonesia’s currency has strengthened 3.2% this year, the second-best performer in Asia, as the greenback weakened and local authorities directed exporters to temporarily hold more FX proceeds onshore. The rupiah was at 15,080 against the dollar as of 1 pm in Jakarta.

To be sure, the rally won’t be linear. The rupiah may consolidate around these levels after the “really quick appreciation,” said Galvin Chia, a strategist at Natwest Markets in Singapore. Technical levels indicate it may be range bound between 15,160 and 15,300 for the next week or so into Lunar New Year, he said.

Even so, some strategists tracked by Bloomberg see the rupiah strengthening toward 15,000 per dollar by the end of March, as emerging-market currencies benefit from a possible slowdown in Fed tightening.

The rupiah is being driven in part by foreigners buying local bonds and “that’s where the outperformance will come from,” said Brendan McKenna, an emerging-market currency strategist at Wells Fargo Securities in New York.

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©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

Foreigners Flock to Indonesian Bonds Amid Signs of Peak US Rates

(Bloomberg) -- Overseas investors have returned to Indonesia’s bonds en masse, a shift which has helped spur gains in the rupiah. Most Read from BloombergMicrosoft to Cut Engineering Jobs This Week as Layoffs Go DeeperApple Delays AR Glasses, Plans Cheaper Mixed-Reality HeadsetInvestors Seek to...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Indos]

EV ambition to boost Indonesia equity market in 2023: JP Morgan

​

Deni Ghifari (The Jakarta Post) PREMIUM
Jakarta ● Thu, March 2, 2023


Indonesia’s electric vehicle (EV) ambition is expected to buoy the country’s equity market this year, JP Morgan said on Wednesday, providing additional support amid looming global uncertainties and lower commodity price.

The lender put an overweight rating on Indonesia’s material producers, as the country is the world’s biggest producer of nickel, a metal extensively used in the production of EVs. An overweight refers to a prediction that stocks in the particular industry will see higher price increase compared to other industries.

EV ambition to boost Indonesia equity market in 2023: JP Morgan

JP Morgan expects the electric vehicle (EV) industry and its supply chain to buoy Indonesia's equity market.

www.thejakartapost.com

 

[Indos]

Indonesia raises $716 mln from Islamic debt auction​

March 21, 2023 — 02:56 am EDT
Written by Ananda Teresia for Reuters ->

JAKARTA, March 21 (Reuters) - Indonesia raised 11 trillion rupiah ($716.38 million) from an Islamic bond auction on Tuesday, equal to the indicative target, its Finance Ministry said.

Total incoming bids were 23.5 trillion rupiah, higher than the previous auction on March 7 at 19.9 trillion rupiah.

($1 = 15,355. Rupiah)

(Reporting by Ananda Teresia)

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/indonesia-raises-$716-mln-from-islamic-debt-auction

 

[Indos]

AlhamduliLLAH

This happened despite latest The Fed policy to keep raising interest rate with 25 basis point and insisting to raise interest rate until it reaches 5.1 percent

-----------------------------------------------

EMERGING MARKETS-Indonesian rupiah jumps on foreign inflows, most other Asian currencies subdued​

March 24 (Reuters) - The Indonesian rupiah IDR= rose more than 1% on Friday, aided by foreign inflows as trading resumed after a two-day holiday, while most other Asian currencies were subdued over mixed signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve about future rate hikes.

For the week, however, currencies in the region were set to eke out gains. The Malaysian ringgit MYR=, the Thai baht THB=TH, the Philippine peso PHP=, and the Indonesian rupiah IDR= all were on track for their second straight weekly rise.

Globally, traders continued to analyse Fed comments for clues about the U.S. central bank's future monetary policy. Currently, markets are pricing in rate cuts of accumulated 80 basis points to about 4% by the end of the year amid fears that policy tightening and a brewing banking crisis could drive the U.S. economy into a recession.

"Liquidity strains stemming from deposit flight have resulted in some duress across U.S. and European banks. However, we see limited risks of contagion to Asian banks, given different business models and risk factors," said Chang Wei Liang, FX & credit strategist at DBS Group Research.


Malaysia posted a faster-than-expected rise in February consumer inflation to 3.7%. In January, the consumer price index had also risen 3.7%.

"Given the sticky core inflation, we continue to expect the Bank Negara Malaysia to deliver another 25 basis-point (bps) rate hike in May," said analysts at Goldman Sachs.

"Although we see risk of a no hike should core inflation decelerate significantly in the next couple months or if the BNM sees signs of banking system instability."

Meanwhile, Singapore said its February industrial production (IP) fell 11.7% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.

"IP collapsed in February, the main drag being the usually volatile biomedicals cluster. That said, there are signs of a bottoming out in semiconductor output," said Brian Tan, an analyst at Barclays Bank.

"We reduce our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% from 2.2% and continue to expect the MAS (Monetary Authority of Singapore) to refrain from further FX policy tightening in 2023."


The Bank of Thailand is expected to hike its interest rates by about 25 bps at its policy meeting next week.

Equity markets in Asia were mixed, with Jakarta .JKSE rising more than 1%, while Malaysia .KLSE dipped 0.6%.

HIGHLIGHTS:​

** Thailand's $98 bln 2024 budget to be delayed over election

** Philippines says maritime friction with China can be addressed via diplomacy

** Hong Kong on watch for any 'spillover' from US regional banks

Asia stock indexes and currencies at 0645

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/emerging-markets-indonesian-rupiah-jumps-on-foreign-inflows-most-other-asian-currencies

 

[Indos]

IMF team has made new assessment on Indonesian economy and revise up their previous prediction on Indonesian economy in January 2023 at 4.8 %

IMF Staff Completes 2023 Article IV Mission to Indonesia

IMF Staff Completes 2023 Article IV Mission to Indonesia

www.imf.org

 

[Indos]

EMERGING MARKETS-Asian currencies rise on weak dollar, Indonesian rupiah gains​

Credit: REUTERS/SOO-HYEON KIM
By Upasana Singh

March 31 (Reuters) - Asian currencies climbed on Friday against a weaker U.S. dollar, with the Indonesian rupiah among the region's top gainers, as concerns over recent banking turmoil eased and investors looked towards the outlook for global monetary tightening.

The rupiah IDR=, which has jumped about 4% so far this year, strengthened 0.5% to a near two-month high.

"In the near term, the rupiah could get more of a lift if there is further dollar weakness," Maybank analysts said in a note.

"There could also be more foreign buying into Indo bonds if the Fed keeps softening its stance."

The South Korean won KRW=KFTC rose 0.6%, while Malaysia's ringgit MYR= appreciated 0.3%. China's yuan CNY=CFXS and the Philippine peso PHP= were up 0.2% each.

Weakness in the dollar, which is tracking towards a second consecutive quarterly loss, boosted investors' appetite for riskier Asian assets. FRX/

"Dollar weakness may continue in the coming sessions," said Jeff Ng, senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank, although he did not rule out a potential rebound due to risk aversion or a change in expectations about the U.S. Federal Reserve's moves.

Markets are awaiting the February reading for the personal consumption expenditures price index from the U.S., due later in the day, which is the metric by which the Fed measures its 2% inflation target and which may provide further clues on monetary policy tightening.

Three Federal Reserve officials kept the door open on Thursday to more rate rises aimed at lowering inflation, with two noting that banking sector problems could generate headwinds for the economy that cool price pressures faster than expected.

Equities across emerging Asia were broadly higher, with stocks in Seoul .KS11 climbing 0.9% and Shanghai equities .SSEC advancing 0.3%.

Singapore's benchmark index .STI and Bangkok shares .SETI rose 0.2% each.

Elsewhere, data showed China's manufacturing activity expanded at slower pace in March, suggesting that prospects of a strong post-COVID economic recovery are faltering amid weaker global demand and a continued property market downturn.

HIGHLIGHTS:​

** South Korea's factory output slumped while retail sales jumped in February, signalling an uneven economic recovery and bolstering the market's view that the central bank will keep rates on hold for the rest of the year
** Core consumer inflation in Japan's capital Tokyo slowed in March for a second month but remained well above the central bank's 2% target

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/emerging-markets-asian-currencies-rise-on-weak-dollar-indonesian-rupiah-gains

 

[Indos]

Booming Jakarta IPO market leaves major global exchanges behind​

Indonesia recorded US$1.45 billion (S$1.9 billion) in IPO proceeds between January and March, its highest-ever first-quarter tally. PHOTO: REUTERS


UPDATED

7 HOURS AGO


HONG KONG – Indonesia is proving to be a treasure trove of initial public offerings (IPOs) amid an extended global lull, beating some other major listing venues in total funds raised during the first quarter, and bankers say there is more to come.

The South-east Asian market recorded US$1.45 billion (S$1.9 billion) in IPO proceeds between January and March, its highest-ever first-quarter tally and nearly twice the amount raised in Hong Kong. Indonesia’s total also exceeded that of Tokyo and London, and at least two more offerings larger than US$500 million each are expected to price in early April. IPO proceeds are down more than 60 per cent year on year globally and for the Asia-Pacific.

Jakarta has benefited from listings of state-owned enterprises in a bid to reduce their reliance on the federal budget. A drive by South-east Asia’s largest economy to integrate itself into the global electric vehicle (EV) supply chain is also prompting firms to take advantage of high investor interest in the sector. That said, demand for local offerings will be tested as Chinese technology behemoths led by Alibaba Group Holding prepare to list their units in Hong Kong.


Indonesia remains “a focus market and we want to do more” deals there, said Mr Sunil Khaitan, head of equity capital markets for South-east Asia at Bank of America in Singapore.

The bank is working on about five more debuts within the next two to three quarters, he said.

Among the widely expected deals that are coming to market include Pertamina Hulu Energi, a unit of state-owned oil behemoth Pertamina, and oil palm grower Palm Co, which is a subsidiary of Perkebunan Nusantara III. Pertamina also offered shares in Pertamina Geothermal Energy earlier to raise US$604 million in what was one of the world’s biggest deals in 2023.

One of the sectors capturing investors’ attention is the EV battery space. Indonesia’s large reserves of nickel – a key component in batteries for EVs – have drawn carmakers including Hyundai Motor and Mitsubishi Motors to set up local plants to ensure continued supply as the nation bans ore exports.

Interest in the nickel industry, which sits at the heart of President Joko Widodo’s vision of developing an end-to-end EV supply chain onshore, has helped producers get top dollar for their IPOs. Metal and mining firm Trimegah Bangun Persada raised US$659 million in March in what was Indonesia’s largest offering in over a year. The company, also known as Harita Nickel, had the first EV-related IPO in Jakarta.

Meanwhile, another producer Merdeka Battery Materials is taking orders until April 4 for an offering as large as US$637 million. It is slated to debut on April 18.

“The EV theme remains strong, I think it is one of the bright spots for equity capital markets at the moment,” said Mr Udhay Furtado, co-head of equity capital markets for Asia-Pacific at Citigroup. “We expect several large Indonesian IPOs coming to market from that sector.”

Hong Kong​

While the IPO scene in Indonesia is promising, the market could soon fall behind Hong Kong, which looks set to get a boost from some sizeable deals.

Cainiao Network Technology, Alibaba’s logistics arm, has started preparations with banks for a Hong Kong offering, Bloomberg News reported last week. Two units of JD.com also filed for IPOs on Thursday.

Weakness in Indonesia’s secondary market is another concern. The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index is down 0.7 per cent in 2023, trailing the broader Asian gauge, after being one of the world’s top performers in 2022. Pertamina Geothermal’s slide of more than 20 per cent since its debut in late February has been uninspiring.

Given the current volatile market conditions, investors “may adjust their risk appetite accordingly”, said Mr Gioshia Ralie, senior country officer for JPMorgan Chase in Indonesia.

Booming Jakarta IPO market leaves major global exchanges behind

Indonesia’s IPO proceeds between January and March exceeded those of Tokyo and London. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

 

[Indos]

AlhamduliLLAH

----------------------

Indonesia's inflation slows more than expected in March​

Today at 12:05 am
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JAKARTA, April 3 (Reuters) - Indonesia's annual inflation rate slowed to 4.97% in March from 5.47% in the previous month, which was also below the 5.2% predicted in a Reuters poll, data from the statistics bureau showed on Monday.

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose 0.18%, compared with the poll's expectation for a 0.29% increase.

The bureau is due to release core inflation figures later on Monday. (Reporting by Gayatri Suroyo, Stefanno Sulaiman and Fransiska Nangoy; Editing by Martin Petty)

Indonesia's inflation slows more than expected in March

JAKARTA, April 3 (Reuters) - Indonesia's annual inflation rate slowed to 4.97% in March from 5.47% in the previous month, which was also below the 5.2% predicted in a Reuters poll, data from the statistics bureau showed on Monday. ...

www.marketscreener.com

 

[Indos]

Realisasi Penerbitan SBN Kuartal I Capai Rp 295,45 T

Sebagian besar masih dari SBN domestik.

insight.kontan.co.id

 

[Indos]

Jump in forex reserves gives BI more ammo to protect rupiah

​

Mark Lempp (The Jakarta Post)
PREMIUM
Jakarta ● Mon, April 10, 2023

Indonesia’s foreign exchange (forex) reserves jumped by 3.5 percent last month, giving the central bank more funds it could use to prop up the rupiah in case further rate hikes in the United States put pressure on the currency.

As Bank Indonesia (BI) reported on Monday, its forex reserves amounted to US$145.2 billion at the end of March, up from $140.3 billion at the end of February, and the highest level since November 2021.

The $4.9 billion increase, which marks a fifth consecutive monthly rise, was partly attributed to tax revenue and the rise of government debt.

Jump in forex reserves gives BI more ammo to protect rupiah

Indonesia’s foreign exchange (forex) reserves jumped by 3.5 percent last month, giving the central bank more funds it could use to prop up the rupiah in case further rate hikes in the United States put pressure on the currency.

www.thejakartapost.com