CriticalThought
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You have elucidated your view very clearly and logically. A Presidential visit is generally not for requesting sales but a diplomatic one. PAF has a habit of getting any and almost every potential foreign dignitary into the JFT. Arms sales on the other hand are a different kettle of fish. There are pressures of the like which you cannot imagine. There are other factors.
Indonesia is a natjon composed of islands. They will go for twin engined fighters which as you mentioned they have in SU35. If they want a single engined fivhter they will want something with no strings long legs and fully developed. A JFT with 10 HPs AESA and possibly CFTs might be a better bet than block 2. So if at all they will come back when block 3 is there. That said the F16 is a mighty and matured plane. Block 70 with AESA will tick all the boxes and their armaments are top of the class. Price maybe a factor and one has to see where Indonezia sits in long term US plans and vice versa.
Aussies if I have understood correctly are not all that keen to leave their continent but want tp preserve the integrigy of it. So I dont know how much of a threat they might be. Being closer to China the Indonesians might perceive China as a greater threat than the US. Therefore depending on threat perception both F16 and JFT stand a chance.
Cost is another option and whereas the Indonesians may not get anything out of the US they might get local assembly and unhindered supply of arms for JFT. But realistically do you want an assembly plant for 3 squadrons? The last factor is integration of armaments existing in the Indonesian armoury. PAC might not have any objections but US will.
So all in all an interesting option. I think all one can say is that a seed has been planted. Whether 8t matures or not needs to be seen.
A
Beware the Australian Navy. They will come for Pakistan if the conditions arise.