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Indonesia Economy Forum

We all know from timor leste that oil revenue is really hard to disttibute equally, and to be fair those 20 ghousand workers in negeria probably indirectly provide employment for many others (food hawker, maid, ect), but thd raw statistics really exposes the weaknesses of just relying on oil.

And by the time the petro drying up there won't be any more workers, thus making all those informal business / workers going jobless. Nigeria economy doesn't seem to be stable enough

Hence why the omnibus law in crucial. Only 2% of FDI in 2018 went into workforce intensive manufacturing (though 30% went into manufacturing, grand majority was into capital intensive).

Assuming that the dreaded omnibus law actually as good as what has been advertised. I personally haven't been reviewing even a quarter of them. And I did discuss it with others (legal practitioners, judges, elected officials, etc) and so far all I've got out of them was either "still scratching my head" or "it's a F****** 1000+ page long" (pdf format). So far I'm sceptic with this omnibus law, because although its deregulate at national level it still doesn't rectify the problem at municipal level government (which always love to complicate things for any business / investors)

Indonesia need to formulate and mix many other countries experiences and do homework about our lacking strength.

Better fix the education system first, Otherwise we will not be going anywhere other than heading toward a-stan

The other thing needs to be considerate is to built more complex and comprehensive infrastructure, the current government priority to built more infrastructure is quite on the spot and need to be enlarged and spread out.

Depend on what type of infrastructures. For some type of infrastructures it is best for private sector to investing in it. Unfortunately there isn't enough market demand outside Java largest cities to attract any private investment
 
And by the time the petro drying up there won't be any more workers, thus making all those informal business / workers going jobless. Nigeria economy doesn't seem to be stable enough
Yes. Thats my point. Nigeria is a huge mess and one of the main reasons is petroleum. Most development metrics were similar in independence (and indeed we had a remarkably similar history in many respects), but today Indonesia has surged far past Nigeria.

Indonesia is criticized for always 'having potential' but never living up to it, but we have had forward progression during Suharto and Reformasi age. That has not happened to Nigeria.

Here is a quick BBC article on it by a Nigerian. its old, but I found it a was a good read:

How Indonesia overtook Nigeria

Also, reliance on Oil is a big reason for their instability. The gov is very reliant on oil revenue and when prices slump, they have budget deficit and many government services are disrupted.

Assuming that the dreaded omnibus law actually as good as what has been advertised. I personally haven't been reviewing even a quarter of them. And I did discuss it with others (legal practitioners, judges, elected officials, etc) and so far all I've got out of them was either "still scratching my head" or "it's a F****** 1000+ page long" (pdf format). So far I'm sceptic with this omnibus law, because although its deregulate at national level it still doesn't rectify the problem at municipal level government (which always love to complicate things for any business / investors)

It is. While the document is huge, several global law consultants are finally releasing their reviews on parts of the Omnibus Law and signs are good. Especially on the recentralization of power to the central gov.

Here is a few tidbits:
INDONESIA: OMNIBUS LAW AND REGULATORY UPDATES IN THE INDONESIAN MINING INDUSTRY

Quote:
"In line with the new framework for business licensing, the recent amendments to the 2009 Mining Law integrate business licenses for mining activities. There is now a single business license, consisting of a business identification number (NIB), standard certificates and a specific license issued by the central government.

The central government now has authority to issue mining business licenses, instead of regional governments. These reforms could solve the previous issue of overlapping authority between the central government and the regional government in this area."

Omnibus Bill on Job Creation: Simplification of Business Licensing

Quote:

"A. The Re-arrangement of Business Licensing Authorities between the Central and Regional Governments

The central government will have the authority to establish and set the norms, standards, procedures, and criteria (Norma, Standar, Prosedur, dan Kriteria or "NSPK") in carrying out the concurrent government affairs (including the business licensing issuance). This NSPK will become the implementing rules in administering government affairs under the central government's authority and those under the regional governments’ control. Thus, the regional governments will be obligated to provide the business licensing services according to the NSPK.

For synchronization, the regional governments must also use the integrated electronic (online) system managed by the central government (Online System Submission or “OSS”) to issue the business licenses. The regional governments may also develop supporting systems for the implementation of the OSS provided that it is in accordance with the central government’s standard.

The central government will also have the authority to supervise the regional governments’ performance in issuing business licensing. If the regional governments do not implement or exercise their authorities following the applicable laws and NSPK, the central government can take over the business licensing issuance authority.

Under this Job Creation Law, the stipulation of the NPSK must be conducted within 2 (two) years as from the enactment of government regulation regarding the implementation of concurrent government affairs."


Furthermore, a friend works in a law consultancy in Jakarta and has been hired by the central gov to got to DIY Yogyakarta and make a survey of local regulations in preparation for harmonizing the NPSK between the central gov & provincial/district gov. The central government seems really eager to get the show on the road. So while a lot of the implementing regulations (perpres & perpu) are still pending, the omnibus law itself seems to live up to at least some of the hype.


Better fix the education system first, Otherwise we will not be going anywhere other than heading toward a-stan

Education is huge though and unless we want to make another Omnibus Gamble reforms will be incremental. Better to also work on other problems concurrently.

Depend on what type of infrastructures. For some type of infrastructures it is best for private sector to investing in it. Unfortunately there isn't enough market demand outside Java largest cities to attract any private investment
We need to find a way to not only eliminate red tape, but also make it easier to concentrate demand in key spots. For that we need Transport Infrastructure first.

For example, JKN (National Healthcare Insurance) has caused a huge upsurge in demand for medical services. Recearch done by Professor Laksono Trisnantoro of UGM has shown that in areas with good connectivity (Java, and parts of Sumatera and Sulawesi), this has increased private investment in hospitals and supporting medical structures, but in areas without connectivity, demand for medical services went up but private investment did not.
https://indonesiaatmelbourne.unimelb.edu.au/talking-indonesia-the-national-health-insurance-scheme/
 
Govt seeks to boost production, attract investment to control sugar price in 2021

Dzulfiqar Fathur Rahman

The Jakarta Post Jakarta / Wed, November 25, 2020 / 07:40 pm


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The government is ramping up sugar production and working to attract more investment in the industry to prevent a shortage of the commodity and price hikes in 2021 as the country seeks to recover from the pandemic downturn.

The Agriculture Ministry is preparing to work on intensification of 200,000 hectares of land on Java island with state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and [land expansion] of 50,000 ha of land outside Java with private businesses for sugarcane plantations.

The aim is to raise sugar production by around 676,000 tons by 2023 and make Indonesia less reliant on imports. “It will not be enough with the limited land on Java. So we need to prepare extensification outside Java, especially on the remaining available lands that are quite large,” said Agriculture Minister Syahrul Yasin Limpo during the National Sugar Summit on Tuesday.

 
Govt seeks to boost production, attract investment to control sugar price in 2021

Dzulfiqar Fathur Rahman

The Jakarta Post Jakarta / Wed, November 25, 2020 / 07:40 pm


View attachment 691165

The government is ramping up sugar production and working to attract more investment in the industry to prevent a shortage of the commodity and price hikes in 2021 as the country seeks to recover from the pandemic downturn.

The Agriculture Ministry is preparing to work on intensification of 200,000 hectares of land on Java island with state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and [land expansion] of 50,000 ha of land outside Java with private businesses for sugarcane plantations.

The aim is to raise sugar production by around 676,000 tons by 2023 and make Indonesia less reliant on imports. “It will not be enough with the limited land on Java. So we need to prepare extensification outside Java, especially on the remaining available lands that are quite large,” said Agriculture Minister Syahrul Yasin Limpo during the National Sugar Summit on Tuesday.

Modernize the mill. Its simple really. Just doing thst can uncrease our productivity by 10%
 
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Jakarta Governor, Anies Baswedan get Covid 19, but alhamdulilah doesnt have any symptom. He can still work and lead Jakarta administration from his home (separate from his family so it maybe second/rented house)

 
Modernize the mill. Its simple really. Just doing thst can uncrease our productivity by 10%

I Get this statistic Today, a very good data for comparison analysis

 
Batang industrial estate, a new industrial estate with has 4000 hectare land in Central Java is currently under development. Construction work for infrastructure facility is being built by PT Waskita Karya, one of state owned construction companies.

Current progress and some design of the industrial estate

 
Govt maintains export ban on nickel, relaxes rules for other metals until 2023

Norman Harsono

The Jakarta Post
PREMIUM
Jakarta / Fri, December 4, 2020 / 03:04 pm


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The Pomalaa nickel smelter in Kolaka, Southeast Sulawesi, operated by state-owned metal miner PT Aneka Tambang (Antam)


The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has enforced an export ban on nickel ore, while relaxing it for two other metals for more than a year, through a recently issued regulation that serves as a derivative for the new Coal and Mineral Mining Law.

Ministerial Regulation No. 17/2020 issued on Nov. 11 maintains the nickel ore export ban that started this year but allows miners to continue exporting washed bauxite and copper anode slime until June 2023, on the condition they are either building or already working with a smelter.

The two metal concentrates, washed bauxite and anode slime, are respectively used to make aluminum and certain precious metals such as gold and silver. Indonesia is a big exporter of these metals. “Only nickel cannot be exported because it is banned by [the preceding] Ministerial Regulation No. 11/2019,” said the ministry’s mi...

 
Japan’s Inpex signs gas sale MoU with state-owned PGN

Norman Harsono

The Jakarta Post Jakarta / Mon, December 7, 2020 / 03:17 pm



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Two workers of state-owned gas company Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) check pipelines for gas channeled to power generator PT Indonesia Power at a gas meter station in Tambak Lorok, Semarang, Central Java. (JP/Suherdjoko)


Japanese energy firm Inpex has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with a third Indonesian state-owned enterprise (SOE) this year to sell gas from its multibillion-dollar Abadi megaproject in Maluku.

Inpex Masela president director Akihiro Watanabe signed the MoU over the matter with state-owned gas distributor PGN, the largest such company in Indonesia, to sell gas from its still-in-progress Abadi liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility on Tanimbar Island, Maluku.

The producer signed in February similar deals with national electricity giant PLN and fertilizer maker PT Pupuk Indonesia. PLN plans to replace diesel with LNG in several power plants. Abadi is expected to produce 1,750 million metric standard cubic feet (mmscf) of LNG and gas per day once operational in 2027.

Read also: Explainer: Delay, exiting operator, what is happening to Indonesia’s strategic gas projects?

“It will take some more time to normalize all the economical activity,” said Watanabe on Wednesday at the online signing ceremony held on the sidelines of the 2020 International Convention on Indonesian Upstream Oil and Gas, adding that “I strongly believe the execution of these agreements can be a good catalyst of normalization in Indonesia.

” Inpex’s case reflects the government’s reliance on its army of SOEs to create a strong enough domestic gas market to spur oil and gas companies to double Indonesia’s gas output over the next ten years to 12,300 mmscfd in 2030.

Valued at US$19.8 billion, the Abadi project is the most expensive of four nationally strategic upstream oil and gas projects that are spearheading efforts to achieve the goal. The four projects are slated to produce 3,484 mmscf of gas per day by 2027.

PLN is also slated to buy gas from two other gas megaprojects, namely BP’s Tangguh Train 3 in West Papua and state-owned oil company Pertamina’s Jambaran Tiung Biru in East Java. “The agreements signed today are aligned with government policy of effectively utilizing domestic resources for Indonesia,” added Watanabe.

PGN business strategy and development director Syahrial Mukhtar said the MoU would be the starting point for both parties to start discussions on the gas sale and purchase agreement. “This signing will be an important milestone for the two parties,” he said in a statement on Thursday.

Society of Indonesian Petroleum Engineers (IATMI) secretary-general Hadi Ismoyo told The Jakarta Post on Friday that SOEs were enough to spur such large demand, “but the question is whether they have the infrastructure to store and sell the gas.”

Read also: 11 companies sign deals to buy gas at lower prices

He previously pointed out that Indonesia’s gas infrastructure was not big enough to generate the demand needed to spur investment in upstream gas production. A case in point was state engineering firm PT Rekayasa Industri (Rekind), which withdrew from the Cirebon-Semarang gas transmission pipe project in October after 14 years of zero progress in securing a reliable gas supplier and in determining viable transportation charges. As a result, growth in Indonesia’s gas demand remains relatively weak.

Annual gas consumption grew at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent between 2008 and 2018, slower than the 5.1 percent average in the Asia-Pacific, according to the latest BP Statistical Review. Upstream Oil and Gas Special Regulatory Taskforce (SKK Migas) head Dwi Soetjipto acknowledged the challenge. He said such partnerships between producers and buyers were needed “to ensure all gas production can be monetized.”

 
Local election in Indonesia was underway Yesterday to elect Governor, Major, and regents. Not for all provinces, only for 9 provinces.

2020 Indonesian local elections

Local elections (Indonesian: Pemilihan Kepala Daerah or Pilkada) were held in Indonesia on 9 December 2020. Voters elected nine governors, 224 regents, and 37 mayors across the country. All the elections were held on the same day, and over 100 million people were expected to be eligible to vote.[1]



Local election in Solo, Central Java.

 
Pertamina partners with Adaro, Indika for coal gasification facilities

Norman Harsono

The Jakarta Post

Jakarta / Wed, December 9, 2020 / 07:04 pm

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Pertamina gas station

State-owned oil and gas giant Pertamina signed on Monday a strategic partnership with privately owned coal mining giants PT Adaro Energy and PT Indika Energy to develop coal gasification facilities in Indonesia. Pertamina president director Nicke Widyawati, in a joint statement on Monday, said the companies aimed to convert low-rank coal – the dirtiest fossil fuel – into dimethyl ether (DME), which would replace imported liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as the go-to cooking gas in Indonesia.

“This aligns with Pertamina’s strategy going forward to optimize [domestic] natural resources as feedstock to produce energy so we can reduce imports and the trade deficit,” she said. Pertamina’s partnership with Adaro and Indika is meant to fill the gap in domestic DME supply needed by Pertamina, the country’s largest LPG distributor.

The switch to DME is supposed to lower the consumption of LPG, a fuel the country has been heavily importing at the cost of widening its trade deficit, a key vulnerability for Southeast Asia’s largest economy. From January to October this year, the trade deficit in oil and gas reached US$5.14 billion, as imports stood at $11.68 billion against exports at $6.54 billion, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data shows. The trade deficit is less than $7.99 billion recorded in the same period last year.

Read also: Indonesia to mix coal-based DME, LPG as cooking gas to reduce imports In October this year alone,

Indonesia’s oil and gas imports fell by 38.6 percent year-on-year (yoy) to US$1.08 billion from the same month in 2019, amid cooling economic activities due to the COVID-19 outbreak.

Nicke had told lawmakers in Jakarta in February that Pertamina’s own under-construction, coal-to-DME plant in South Sumatra could only replace roughly a quarter of the country’s total imported LPG. Pertamina’s plant, being jointly developed with national coal miner PT Bukit Asam and United States-based Air Products, is slated to produce 1.4 million tons of DME annually, compared to the country’s need for roughly 5 million tons of LPG annually.

Meanwhile, while Adaro is currently looking to develop a coal-to-methanol facility and Indika an underground coal gasification facility, the statement did not indicate which company would build the capacity to convert these coal derivatives into DME.

Both miners' facilities are slated to be built in Kalimantan. “[Indika] is committed to studying downstream technology,” the coal miner wrote in a separate statement on Monday. The deal also brings Adaro and Indika closer to securing a state-backed DME offtaker for their capital-intensive projects that according to one landmark study, might not always be economically competitive with imported LPG.

An Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) study published on Nov. 10 calculated that at current low LPG prices, Bukit Asam would face $377 million dollars in operational losses each year in selling DME at competitive prices with LPG.

The government countered the study in a statement on Monday by saying that LPG prices had averaged at $600 per ton over the past 10 years, higher than the $365 per ton price tag used in IEEFA's study, and thus, the project was "economical and not a loss”. “That means Pertamina is committing itself to a capacity payment for DME, whose profit or loss depends on the LPG prices at that time,” IEEFA analyst Elrika Hamdi to The Jakarta Post on Tuesday.

For Adaro, Indika and Bukit Asam, downstreaming is also a means of diversifying its coal business as the global market slowly moves away from coal-fired power plants, the biggest market for the dry fuel. Adaro commissioner Arini Saraswaty Subianto, who Forbes listed as one of Indonesia’s richest women last year, said in the joint statement that the downstreaming project “opened the opportunity to diversify and develop Adaro’s business”.

 
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Jasa Marga sees traffic recovery, driven by trans-Java toll road

Dzulfiqar Fathur Rahman

The Jakarta Post

Jakarta / Tue, December 8, 2020 / 04:37 pm


State-owned toll road operator PT Jasa Marga saw signs of recovery in its operations and finance nearing the end of the year, following the loosening of pandemic curbs that boosted vehicle traffic, particularly in the trans-Java toll road network.

The easing of mobility restrictions in the capital and more relaxed pandemic policies in various regions on Java Island allowed traffic to pick up faster on the trans-Java toll road than on toll roads within the capital Jakarta, according to Jasa Marga financial director Donny Arsal.

Some of the trans-Java toll road sections the company operates include Solo-Ngawi in Central Java and Surabaya-Mojokerto in East Java. “Only the toll roads in Greater Jakarta [were not as busy],” Donny said in a virtual talk on Monday. “The trans-Java toll road has risen above the forecast, perhaps due to a switch from airplanes and trains to cars. So, traffic on the trans-Java has returned to its normal level, even slightly above it.

” The toll road operator has seen a less than 5 percent fall in revenue from the February level, far less severe than the 60 percent fall seen in the March-May period, Donny said. “So, we’re almost back to normal.” Jasa Marga’s toll road revenue, which contributes to most of its earning, has fallen by 15 percent year-on-year (yoy) to Rp 6.25 trillion (US$443.1 million) as of September, a financial report published on the company’s website shows. Its overall revenue fell by 50.2 percent to Rp 10.5 trillion in the first nine months of the year, from Rp 21.1 trillion last year.

Meanwhile, the Jakarta administration’s large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) have also reduced vehicle traffic on the city’s toll roads, with offices and schools urged to operate remotely to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. “The issue was the policy, which forbade people from going outside,” said Donny. “Traffic picked up after the PSBB relaxation.” Jakarta, the first national epicenter of the pandemic, started imposing PSBB measures on April 10.

The Jakarta administration recently extended a looser, transitional PSBB period from Dec. 7 until 21. Read also: Jakarta extends transitional PSBB to Dec. 21 as cases surge The curbs in Jakarta had led to a more than 40 percent drop in the number of people going to workplaces in April from the January-February level, according to mobility data from Google.

The movement trend to workplaces has not returned to pre-pandemic levels since. Toll roads connecting people to airports such as the 10-kilometer Nusa Dua-Ngurah Rai-Benoa toll road in Bali was also hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, in line with the slump seen in tourism, according to Jasa Marga group head of corporate finance Eka Setya Adrianto.

Tourism has been among the hardest-hit sectors during the COVID-19 outbreak. According to Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the number of foreign tourists arriving from January to September fell by 70.57 percent yoy to 3.56 million visitors. With the decline in traffic, the toll road operator’s net profit fell to Rp 157.6 billion in the January-September period this year, an 89.5 percent plunge from the same period in 2019.

Read also: Jasa Marga plans to issue commercial paper, cut expenditure amid revenue downturn

“For our net income, we cannot expect it to significantly grow amid a declining toll [road] revenue, especially in the second and third quarters, when the decrease was quite significant,” Eka said. “So, we will see. The least we can do is maintain a positive performance in the fourth quarter.”

With the pandemic battering its financial health, the toll road operator reduced its capital expenditure by Rp 2 trillion and operational expenditure by Rp 500 billion earlier this year. “Next year, our capital expenditure may be very low as some toll roads have been completed. But with some toll roads delayed to next year, like JORR 2, it may stand between Rp 5 trillion and Rp 6 trillion,” said Eka, referring to the Jakarta Outer Ring Road project.

Next year, the company is set to develop a total of around 70 km in toll roads, the largest project being the 33.12-km Balikpapan-Samarinda Section I and V toll road in East Kalimantan. Sections II to IV began operating in June this year. Jasa Marga stated in August that it would not start a new construction project at least until 2023, as the company shifted its focus to optimizing revenue from existing toll roads.

The company operating new toll roads this year, including the Pandaan-Malang toll road section V in East Java and Manado-Danowudu toll road in North Sulawesi. According to the company’s data, Jasa Marga operates a total of 1,191 km in toll roads across Indonesia.

 
Indonesia tourism sector still has much room to grow, we are just 30 most visited, even tiny Singapore sits at 28 position.


After Bali, it is Jakarta and Riau islands provinces that get the most foreign visitors. For Riau islands province I believe it is due to the closeness between the region with Singapore. Bintan island has been boasted by Indonesia tourism official as the next Bali.


There is plan to make an airport in Bintan island though. Any way Batam and Bintan islands will get a bridge between them inshaAllah in which the construction has already been started this early December so the connection between SIngapore and Bintan will be much better since there is already an international airport in Batam.

Bintan new airport news, but we just wait for the completion. The construction is prompted by Singapore third Changi terminal development where direct flight from Singapore to Bintan has been planned to use this new terminal.

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This is the news in 2017 about Bintan Airport project


Bintan airport expected to operate by 2020

Fadli

The Jakarta Post

Batam, Riau Islands / Tue, September 5, 2017 / 09:37 pm

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Airplanes are seen parked in Hang Nadim International Airport in Batam, Riau Islands, in this file photo. The construction of a special airport in Bintan will hopefully boost tourism in the province. (JP/Fadli)


The construction of the airport at Bintan Riau Islands is expected to be complete in 2019 with the target of being operational in 2020. State-owned airport operator Angkasa Pura (AP) II will manage the special airport whose construction was initiated by integrated resort developer Bintan Resort Cakrawala in 2012.

“Three months ago, we signed a memorandum of understanding with AP II to manage the Bintan airport. Hence, there are no more challenges in the airport’s construction and operational activities,” PT Bintan Resort Cakrawala group general manager Abdul Wahab said on Monday.

He said the government, via the Transportation Ministry, had previously refused to give the special airport a permit because it aimed to operate international routes. “The rejection hampered the construction process of this airport. It was irrational because the function of this airport is to open access for tourists from other countries to visit this country,” said Abdul Wahab.

He said the government eventually granted the permit but the airport must be fully managed by AP II. A total of US$150 million has been allocated for the first stage of the construction of the airport, which will have a 3,000-meter long runway. “The first stage of the airport’s construction is 30 percent complete,” said Abdul Wahab. Bintan Resort Cakrawala is the developer of the Lagoi integrated tourism zone in Busung, Kuala Lobam, Bintan. It is claimed the Bintan airport will be the first special airport in Indonesia. (ebf)


Lagoi Bay, Bintan Island, Riau islands province

 
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The global demand and price of palm oil is increasing that make Indonesia government use levies (gov collection/specialized tax) to curb the export. It is because in Indonesia we have biodiesel program that needs a lot of palm oil as the main ingredients.

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Indonesia imposes higher export levies amid year-end rally in global CPO prices

Adrian Wail Akhlas

The Jakarta Post
PREMIUM
Jakarta / Fri, December 11, 2020 / 07:46 am
1607649853015.png

Bunches of harvested palm fruit lie in the shade beneath oil palms at an unidentified plantation in this undated stock photograph.(Shutterstock/mrfiza)

Indonesia, the world’s top palm oil producer, is to impose higher export levies on crude palm oil (CPO) starting Thursday as the price of the commodity rallies ahead of the year-end. The policy also aims to support the government’s mandatory biodiesel program. The recently issued Finance Ministerial Regulation No. 191/2020 imposes progressive export levies ranging from US$55 to $255 per metric ton of CPO depending on the reference price.

In comparison, the previous regulation imposed a flat CPO levy of $55 per metric ton, regardless of price. So under the new regulation, a $55 per metric ton will be imposed if the CPO reference price is $670 per metric ton or below, with the levy increasing between $5 and $15 for every $25 hike per metric ton of CPO. Food and agribusiness coordination deputy Musdhalifah Machmud at the Office of the Coord...

 
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