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INDIA’S GOT ITSELF INTO A FINE MESS IN DOKLAM, IT’S TIME TO GET OUT AND LET CHINA AND BHUTAN WORK IT

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INDIA’S GOT ITSELF INTO A FINE MESS IN DOKLAM, IT’S TIME TO GET OUT AND LET CHINA AND BHUTAN WORK IT OUT.
India is militarily engaging a state actor from the soil of a third country over a piece of land its partner country does not even control. Not even the US does that.

China and India are locked yet again in a stand-off of Himalayan proportions. Almost five weeks after Indian troops trespassed and forcibly halted the activities of a Chinese road construction crew on a narrow plateau at the China-Bhutan-India tri-junction area in the Sikkim Himalayas, the two sides appear no closer to resolving their quarrel. The area in question, Doklam, is the subject of a legal dispute between China and Bhutan, is under the effective jurisdiction of China, and holds an important security interest to India.


The restoration of the status quo ante in the Doklam area will be a protracted affair. Unlike previous impasses on their disputed Himalayan frontier earlier this decade, which coincided with a warming phase in ties and were wound down with the exhibition of good sense on both sides, bilateral ties have hit a sour patch. China, as the aggrieved party, bears little interest in unwinding the stand-off on terms other than its own. Worse, there is no agreed definition among the parties of the object of discord at stake – to the point that China does not even view India as the appropriate interlocutor to engage with to unwind the stand-off.


China’s position on, and solution to, the stand-off is blunt and straightforward. The alignment of the China-India boundary in the Sikkim Himalayas sector is mutually defined as per Article 1 (“the line commences at Mount Gipmochi on the Bhutan frontier, and follows the … water-parting”) of the Anglo-Chinese Convention of 1890 relating to Sikkim and Tibet. On numerous occasions, Indian representatives from Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru down have formally accepted this.

This standoff is China telling India to accept changing realities

By interfering in a Chinese road construction project roughly 3km to the north of the plain letter of Article 1, India has violated China’s territorial sovereignty. As a precondition for any dialogue, India must vacate its trespass unconditionally.

To the extent that the area in question is the subject of a dispute due to Bhutan’s belated claim to the area in the 14th round of Sino-Bhutanese boundary talks, this is wholly a matter between Beijing and Thimpu. Until such time, Bhutan – let alone India, which has no locus standi to intervene – must respect China’s effective jurisdiction over the Doklam area.

China, India border dispute bubbles over once more, but no one is quite sure why

For its part, India does not deny the validity of Article 1 of the Anglo-Chinese Convention of 1890. But it says the alignment on the ground is not an established fact. The same article says the “boundary of Sikkim and Tibet [was to] be the crest of the mountain range separating the waters flowing” southwards and northwards. The “line [that] commences at Mount Gimpochi on the Bhutan frontier” violates this principle and should in fact be 6km to the north – making the area of trespass wholly Bhutanese soil. By way of its bilateral Friendship Treaty of 2007 with Bhutan, under which both sides “cooperate closely … on issues relating to their national interests”, India enjoys a basis to intervene in the dispute on Thimpu’s behalf.



According to India, China’s road construction activity in this area constitutes a “significant change of the status quo”. It disturbs India’s security interests as well as violates an “understanding” between Indian and Chinese boundary negotiators in 2012 that the final alignment of the boundary in the tri-junction area would be settled in consultations involving India. China must therefore desist from further road building in this area and India stands ready to mutually ease the stand-off on this basis.

India’s China policy off target, says Modi’s Mandarin-speaking ‘guided missile’

But India’s troop intervention in Doklam is not without grave political risk. While the security logic of its actions holds merit and the provision in its Friendship Treaty with Bhutan affords a veneer of respectability, New Delhi’s diplomatic communication throughout this episode has been couched in the imprecise political language of status quos and understandings. By contrast, China’s communication has been crisply grounded in the black-and-white language of legal sovereignty.

Why China, India and the Dalai Lama are pushing the boundaries in Tawang

India’s troop intervention in Doklam is also at risk of setting a slew of consequential precedents.

For the first time ever, India is militarily engaging a state actor – and one no less than China – from the soil of a third country. For a status quo-ist power, as it sees itself, this is a leap into the unknown.




Second, it is militarily intervening on behalf of a friendly partner country to uphold the latter’s claims of sovereignty to a patch of territory which the partner country does not effectively control. Not even the mighty US military extends defence obligations to disputed territories that its allies do not exercise effective control over – let alone intervene on their behalf. Third, the China-India-Bhutan is not the only unresolved tri-junction along India’s northern frontier. Payback in the same coin could be highly unpalatable for India.

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China holding a live-fire military exercise in Tibet amid a standoff with India on the border. Photo: Handout

Having engaged in a high-risk venture, the onus resides on India to devise the conditions of its exit. To this end, it must directly confront the tangled legalities of the situation. New Delhi does not possess legal standing to directly engage China to ease the stand-off in Doklam. That standing is held by Bhutan. Efforts to pre-empt this dilemma via talks will only add to the question of New Delhi’s motivations and purposes.


New Delhi must push Thimpu to take the lead in engaging Beijing and devise a mutually acceptable boundary protocol that acknowledges China’s effective jurisdiction of the area, pending final settlement, in exchange of the restoration of the status quo ante as of June 16, 2017. In parallel, New Delhi must commit to unilaterally vacating the Doklam area while privately holding out for Beijing’s reiteration of the 2012 understanding that the trijunction boundary points will be finalised in consultation with all three parties concerned.

http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopo...elf-fine-mess-doklam-its-time-get-out-and-let
 
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It's geo-politics. The author seems to be under the impression that any Talks between China & Bhutan would result in anything different to what happened to Tibet.

If India does not learn from history, then we are doomed to fail.

This is probably the few times India is spot on with their moves. It has shown China that there will be consequences for their anti-India moves.

India has called in Chinese bluff and let me assure you that China will think a lot more from now on every move they make vis a vis India.
Nations will only respect you if we show that there are consequences, otherwise, countries like China will walk over you without even giving a second thought to our national interests.
 
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ভারতের দুর্বলতা চিকেন’স নেক বা মুরগীর গলা : চীন কি পারবে তা দখল করতে ?

India's weakness Chicken's neck or chicken's throat: What China needs to do to capture it?

Chicken's neck or chicken throat, it is easiest to sling the chicken from the throat . From Bangladesh to Nepal, this neck has a narrow Siliguri corridor in India, known as Chicken's Neck or 'Chicken Neck'. Its magnitude is only 21 kilometers.

Seven Sisters of India or 7 states in the North-Eastern region will be completely separated from India if any can occupy this 21 km area. Note that seven states of India or Seven Sisters of the northeast have long been unwilling to accept Indian subordination. The movement of freedom struggle is very fierce in those areas; N-E States wants complete freedom from India, at any cost.

The Indians are highly perplexed over these armed freedom struggles. Recently, the situation has reached new the boiling point, in the present context. China has directly announced that there will be a war against India. For the past 19 days, China and India's troops are in a face-off position at Sikkim point. This warlike scenerio is the creation behind this situation, however, there is also the chicken’s neck to ponder about.

Current Standoff - China, is concentrating on constructing roads through a valley, inclusive of Bhutan and Sikkim province of India. There is saying that - the road to Doklem is the route, which the Chinese forces could invade, very close to Chicken's Neck.

Note that on August 26 last year, Ananda Bazar Patrika of India published the news - 'Chicken's neck' in China Nishan, India's huge preparation to save Siliguri. It is said in the news that the cause of India's concern has recently strengthened the Chinese President's two units of Chinese forces. One of these is the 77656 unit deployed in the Kumkhi valley of China, in the middle of the Sikkim province of India and Bhutan Ha district.

(Http://bit.ly/2br8Khj) and is the same formula that the Doklema road, the 77656 units increase the power of the unit and grab the chicken's virtue, saying it to the donkey.

Analysts - India's fear has greatly increased the number of controllers-

(1) Nepal is currently against India and in favor of China. Among the people of Nepal, there are widespread dissatisfactions. There is indeed no doubt that Nepal will provide 100% support to China when China-India war.

(2) Increasingly, India's rivalry between the people of Bangladesh Although Sheikh Hasina's government is in favor of India. But after a $ 24 billion deal with China, a few days ago, the government of India who took sides in the conflict between India and China, is a matter of grave concern.

(3) The condition of Indian military during the financial crisis is not good. Two reports are as under:

A) http://bit.ly/2tjRYbd, b) http://bit.ly/2tTsyTg

(4) Moral of Border Security Force of India BSF is very low asthe government does not let them eat properly. A few days ago a video of a BSF member became viral on Facebook (http://bit.ly/2tKPlQQ). It was also reported that BSF members have committed suicide due to these problems (http://bit.ly/2sJ2rOD).

Considering the above four factors, India's concern about chicken's goodness is to remain in India's concern. However, that India is worried about the factor (2), it can be understood from the fact that the recent anti-Chinese intellectual Farhad Mazhar has disappeared.

We are convinced from very reliable media that the presence of Farhad Mazhar in anti-India press conference in the previous day was the main reason for his disappearance. However, it is not true that India will not be able to kill anyone pro Chinese. India's intention was to convey a message only, before the pro-Chinese opposition in Bangladesh - "You will stop spreading Indian hatred in Bangladesh, or you will be wiped out."

চিকেন’স নেক বা মুরগীর গলা। গলায় টিপ দিয়ে মুরগীকে ধরাশায়ী করা সবচেয়ে সহজ বাংলাদেশ থেকে নেপাল পর্যন্ত সে ভারতের সরু শিলিগুড়ি করিডোর আছে, তা চিকেন’স নেক বা ‘মুরগীর গলা’ নামে পরিচিত। এর দৈর্য্ মাত্র ২১ কিলোমিটার। এই ২১ কিলোমিটার এলাকা দখল করতে পারলেই ভারতের সেভেন সিস্টার বা উত্তর-পূর্ব অঞ্চলের রাজ্য ভারত থেকে পুরোপুরি বিচ্ছিন্ন হয়ে যাবে। উল্লেখ্য, ভারতের সেভেন সিস্টার বা উত্তর-পূর্ব অঞ্চলের রাজ্য অনেক আগে থেকেই ভারতের অধীনতা মেনে নিতে রাজি নয়। এঅঞ্চলগুলোতে স্বাধীনতাকামীদের আন্দোলন বেশ জোড়ালো, তারা ভারত থেকে বিচ্ছিন্ন হতে চায়। তাই সব মিলিয়ে ভারত বিষয়টি নিয়ে বেশ চিন্তিত

তবে সেই চিন্তায় আরো আগুন ধরেছে বর্তমান পরিস্থিতি। চীন সরাসরি ঘোষণা দিয়েছে ভারতের বিরুদ্ধে যুদ্ধ হতে পারে। গত ১৯ দিন ধরে সিকিম পয়েন্টে চীন ভারতের সৈন্যরা মুখোমুখি অবস্থানে রয়েছে। এই যুদ্ধ পরিস্থিতি তৈরী হওয়ার পেছনেও কিন্তু রয়েছে চিকেন’স নেক এর হাতছানি। বর্তমান যুদ্ধ পরিস্থিতি- চীন, ভুটান আর ভারতের সিকিম প্রদেশের সংযোগস্থলে একটি উপত্যকার ভেতর দিয়ে রাস্তা তৈরি করাকে কেন্দ্র করে। যাকে বল হচ্ছে- ডোকলামে রাস্তা। এই রাস্তা হলে চীন বাহিনী চিকেন’স নেক এর খুব কাছাকাছি চলে আসবে। উল্লেখ্য গত বছর ২৬শে আগস্ট ভারতের আনন্দবাজার পত্রিকা খবর ছেপেছিলো- চিনা নিশানায় ‘চিকেনস নেক’, শিলিগুড়ি রক্ষায় বিপুল প্রস্তুতি ভারতেরও। খবরের ভেতরে বলা হয়, ভারতের চিন্তার কারণ সম্প্রতি চীনা প্রেসিডেন্ট চীনা বাহিনীর দুটো ইউনিটকে শক্তিশালী করেছে। এর মধ্যে একটি হলো ভারতের সিকিম প্রদেশ এবং ভুটানের হা জেলার মাঝখানে অবস্থিত চীনের চুম্বী উপত্যকায় মোতায়েন থাকা ইউনিট ৭৭৬৫৬। (http://bit.ly/2br8Khj) আর ডোকলামে রাস্তা, ৭৭৬৫৬ ইউনিটের শক্তি বৃদ্ধি এবং চিকেন’স নেক দখল যে একই সূত্রে গাধা তা বলার অপেক্ষা রাখে না।

তবে আমার বিশ্লেষনে- ভারতের এই ভয় বহুগুনে বাড়িয়ে তুলেছে আরো কিছু নিয়ামক-
(১) বর্তমানে
নেপাল ভারতের বিপক্ষে, চীনের পক্ষে। নেপালের জনগনের মধ্যে রয়েছে ব্যাপক ভারত বিদ্বেষ। চীন-ভারত যুদ্ধ লাগলে নেপাল যে ১০০% চীনকে সাপোর্ট দেবে তাতে কোন সন্দেহ নাই।
(২) বাংলাদেশের
জনগণের মধ্যে ক্রমবর্ধমান হারে বেড়ে যাওয়া ভারত বিদ্বেষ। যদিও শেখ হাসিনা সরকার ভারতের পক্ষে অবস্থান। তবে কিছুদিন আগে চীনের সাথে ২৪ বিলিয়ন ডলারের চুক্তির পর ভারত-চীন দ্বন্দ্বে হাসিনা সরকার কার পক্ষ নেয়, সেটা চিন্তার বিষয়।
(৩) আর্থিক
দুরাবস্থায় ভারতের সামরিক বাহিনীর অবস্থা ভালো নয়। সম্পর্কে দুটো খবর পড়তে পারেন
ক)
http://bit.ly/2tjRYbd, খ) http://bit.ly/2tTsyTg
(৪) ভারতের
সীমান্তরক্ষী বাহিনী বিএসএফও সরকারের উপর ক্ষেপা। কারণ সরকার তাদের ঠিকমত খেতে দেয় না। কিছুদিন আগে এক বিএসএফ সদস্যের সম্পর্কে ভিডিও ফেসবুকে ভাইরাল হয়েছিলো (http://bit.ly/2tKPlQQ)। সব সমস্যার কারণে বিএসএফ সদস্যরা আত্মহত্যা করছে বলেও খবর বের হয়েছে (http://bit.ly/2sJ2rOD)।

উপরের চারটি ফ্যাক্টর বিবেচনা করলে চিকেন’স নেক নিয়ে ভারতের চিন্তার থাকার কথা। তবে (২) নং ফ্যাক্টর নিয়ে যে ভারত বেশ চিন্তিত তা সম্প্রতি চীনপন্থী বুদ্ধিজীবি ফরহাদ মাজহারের গুম হওয়ার বিষয় থেকে অনুধাবন করা যায়। আমি খুব নির্ভরযোগ্য মাধ্যম থেকে নিশ্চিত হয়েছি, আগের দিন ভারতবিরোধী সংবাদ সম্মেলনে ফরহাদ মাজহারের উপস্থিতি ছিলো তার গুম হওয়ার মূল কারণ। তবে এটা ঠিক চীনপন্থী কাউকে মেরে তুলকালাম ঘটাবে না ভারত। ভারতের উদ্দেশ্য ছিলো, বাংলাদেশে চীনপন্থী মহলকে জাস্ট একটা মেসেজ দেয়া- “তোমরা বাংলাদেশে ভারত বিদ্বেষ ছড়ানো বন্ধ করো, নয়ত গুম হয়ে যাবে।”

@CAD Why are you acting like Chinese Cheerleader? Over the past few days you have opened more threads on Dokhlam standoff than any Chinese.
:bounce::lol::D:p:coffee::blah:;):ashamed:
 
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Possibility of war is below zero when you have nuclear arsenals on both sides. There's a saying,"Two countries would never go to war when they have McDonalds on both sides". SCMP is just trying to drive traffic into its website, like any other news agency does. Even they know there ain't gonna be any war.
 
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The indian intransigence is somehow connected to modi's visits to Washington and Tel Aviv. This time they have managed to convince india to be their sacrificial lamb. I won't be surprised if india's big daddies secretly saying something like "Don't worry, we'll bomb China back to stone age if China dares to touch your(indian) sweet arse". After getting this kind of assurance from his big daddies modi simply lost it, his brain is no longer in its chamber. It's somewhere in a cow shed, mixed with cow dung! What a waste!
 
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India had also made these same moves in 1962, and at that time too the Chinese kept demanding that the Indian army should withdraw. Then one fine day they beat the senses out of India.

yawn...this aint 1962,cheerleader.

The indian intransigence is somehow connected to modi's visits to Washington and Tel Aviv. This time they have managed to convince india to be their sacrificial lamb. I won't be surprised if india's big daddies secretly saying something like "Don't worry, we'll bomb China back to stone age if China dares to touch your(indian) sweet arse". After getting this kind of assurance from his big daddies modi simply lost it, his brain is no longer in its chamber. It's somewhere in a cow shed, mixed with cow dung! What a waste!

Never go full retard.
 
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