India’s fight against China challenge must start with Budget 2021

[beijingwalker]

India’s fight against China challenge must start with Budget 2021
Reeling under acute financial crunch, the Indian armed forces expect increased allocation to meet their modernisation plans. The Modi government must deliver.
SNEHESH ALEX PHILIP 29 January, 2021 10:29 am IST

In the backdrop of an economic contraction following the Covid pandemic, the Narendra Modi government will present the budget for 2021-22 next week. But all eyes will be on the money that the government will allocate to the defence ministry.

This is primarily because unlike most countries of the world, who are largely battling a slowing economy due to the Covid 19, India is facing another big challenge — China.

And so, there is a greater expectation among the armed forces, which have been reeling under acute financial crunch, for increased allocation to meet their modernisation plans.

The armed forces are up against China, a country with the second-largest defence budget in the world. In 2020, China’s official defence budget stood at $179 billion, three times that of India’s.

While India’s defence budget for 2020-21, including pensions, constituted 15.5 per cent of the entire expenditure plan of the central government, China’s official defence allocation was 36.2 per cent of the country’s budget.

I use the term ‘official’ because since the late 1990s, many analysts have believed that major components of Chinese military activities are not reflected in the defence budget released by the government.

India, choose your battles wisely
The China challenge has made it important for India to decide what war it wants to fight. Does it want to pump in billions of dollars in acquiring new generations of existing systems or does it want to invest in technology of the future? Does India think the next war will be fought in the Himalayas or should it deem a naval war – in the waters – to be a wiser battle?

What is happening now is that China has forced India to deploy thousands of troops and equipment in the mountainous northern borders. India has and is in the process of buying numerous equipment under emergency clause to prepare against the Chinese military, which showed aggression on land.

Many in the defence establishment argue that the best outcome of the Ladakh stand-off would be a stalemate, which means neither India nor China gets to claim victory. But one must also ask whether China is looking at a war or is it simply trying to keep India engaged in the northern borders?

Sources in the defence ministry admit that one sphere where India has an advantage over China is the sea. But does it mean that the conflict should be shifted from our Himalayan boundaries to the waters of the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean?

Not really, but China is smart to limit the conflict to the mountains. Sources in the Modi government argue that they will ensure that money is the least worry for the armed forces, which will be provided with everything they want.

Defence budget, a growing concern
In 2018, then-Vice Chief of Army Staff Lt Gen Sarath Chand deposed before the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence. He said that the Budget 2018-19 had “dashed our hopes” of adequate modernisation of the force.

“Allocation of Rs 21,388 crore foe modernisation is insufficient even to cater for committed payments of Rs 29.033 crore for 125 ongoing schemes, emergency procurement and other requirements,” Chand had told the parliamentary panel.

In Budget 2019-20, the Army’s capital share was Rs 32,474 crore. The budget for the forces can’t even meet the shortages.

Laxman Kumar Behera, associate professor at JNU’s Special Centre for National Security Studies, noted: “In the past seven years, the (defence ministry’s) gap between resource requirement and allocation, which briefly narrowed from 27 per cent in 2013-14 to 14 per cent in 2015-16, has increased to 30 per cent in 2018-19 and 25 per cent in 2019-20.”

There is no other way for the forces but to rationalise the expenditure. The three Services — Army, Navy, and Air Force — need to come together and rethink where the money needs to be spent.

In its latest report, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a Swedish think tank, pegged China’s actual defence budget in 2019 at $240 billion as compared to the official figure of $175 billion.

Let us understand one thing – India can never match China’s defence spending and it will be foolhardy to even think it should.

Unanswered questions
Would buying more tanks make sense when the enemy has anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) and attack choppers in large numbers? Would investing in the latest air defence systems make sense or importing more single engine fighters when India has its own? Does the Navy need more submarines or a third aircraft carrier? No one can tell if there will be dog fights in the future between two aircraft or would unmanned armed drones do the job. The recent war between Azerbaijan and Armenia showed how modern technology can really pulverise traditional defence systems.

There are many such questions. And hence, it is important for India to have a coherent forward-looking policy on defence procurement and modernisation. The Modi government should put greater emphasis, financially speaking, on research. I don’t mean just the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) but the private sector as well.

The government should push ahead forcefully with integration of the three Services. It just does not make sense to buy the same set of equipment for different Services.

The government should have put its foot down when the Army and the Air Force fought overApache helicopters, resulting in separate orders for the two Services and costing the defence budget at least Rs 2,500 crore.

China’s thrust can be a lesson
China is moving away from a manpower-intensive force towards a technology-driven force. Its military’s core strength is not in the infantry but its rocket force and the armed drones besides cyber and space.

The Chinese are investing in the technology and service of their future – Navy. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy is the fastest-growing naval force in the world.

Every year, the PLA Army’s share in China’s total defence budget is declining while that of the PLA Navy is growing. They are focussing on stealth technology for the Air Force, while looking to keep aircraft like JF 17 more for export. After all, money doesn’t come out of thin air. It needs planning and foresight.

It is time for India to think and act fast, too.

India’s fight against China challenge must start with Budget 2021

Reeling under acute financial crunch, the Indian armed forces expect increased allocation to meet their modernisation plans. The Modi government must deliver.

theprint.in

 

[vi-va]

China’s official defence allocation was 36.2 per cent of the country’s budget.

The author is nuts.

 

[vi-va]

it's an inherent trait for Indians to be dishonest and fraudulent like nobody else,but to be lie in such an asinine manner is byproduct of bombed IQ .

The more I read Indian news, and so called THINK TANK ANALYSIS, the more I believe Hindutva is a superstition, a scandal, a scam.
The spiritual world of Hindutva is completely disordered, self-contradicted, backward, delusional.

 

[tower9]

The more I read Indian news, and so called THINK TANK ANALYSIS, the more I believe Hindutva is a superstition, a scandal, a scam.
The spiritual world of Hindutva is completely disordered, self-contradicted, backward, delusional.

I noticed they don’t even try to be credible. They literally just make up wild statements.

 

[applesauce]

The author is nuts.

that 36.2 percent figure is literally cherry picking.

its the military budget as a % of central government spending. that is, it completely excludes all other government spending ie:providence government and local government spending

What it tells you is that the indian central government spends far more than its states while the chinese central government spends far less than the provinces. ie: china gives far more leeway to its provinces to manage their own stuff.

What it doesnt tell you (because it wouldn't be scary) is that chinese military spending is only some 5% of total government budget, biggest spending is actually education.

While india's military spending is closer to 9% of total indian government spending

if anything china is not spending nearly enough compared to its neighbors, and this is backed up by hard data, in both % of GDP and % of total government budget nearly all of china's neighbors spend more. its just china has such a large economy now, its absolute spending is huge even though % of its total spending is actually very small.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

... Sources in the defence ministry admit that one sphere where India has an advantage over China is the sea. ...

How? Did the Americans reveal this to their favourite Poodle, India?

 

[FuturePAF]

that 36.2 percent figure is literally cherry picking.

its the military budget as a % of central government spending. that is, it completely excludes all other government spending ie:providence government and local government spending

What it tells you is that the indian central government spends far more than its states while the chinese central government spends far less than the provinces. ie: china gives far more leeway to its provinces to manage their own stuff.

What it doesnt tell you (because it wouldn't be scary) is that chinese military spending is only some 5% of total government budget, biggest spending is actually education.

While india's military spending is closer to 9% of total indian government spending

if anything china is not spending nearly enough compared to its neighbors, and this is backed up by hard data, in both % of GDP and % of total government budget nearly all of china's neighbors spend more. its just china has such a large economy now, its absolute spending is huge even though % of its total spending is actually very small.

China is still catching up in key technologies and doesn’t want to spend on systems that they deem already not competitive against the threats they face.

I would assume a lot of their defense budget goes to R&D, and a sizable chunk to training engineers and technicians, but once a technology is ready they start produce it in large quantities; such as the DF-41.

In the mean time they construct all the tunnels and C4ISR facilities , while labor and commodity prices (steel, concrete, etc.) are low, so that when the missiles are ready, they can be put right into the tunnels and brought to full operational capability ASAP.

IMHO, China will quietly build up 600+ DF-41 (and other icbms that will eventually be phased out) in those tunnels to equal the US and Russian limits in accordance with the New start treaty (the treaty limits to 800 icbm and slbm with a total of 1550 warheads deployed).

That is also why we see few SSNs and SSBNs; they are mostly technology demonstrators and testbeds, until China reaches a capability threshold it feels is good enough to go into mass production; probably 2-3 dozen SSNs and a dozen SSBNs. Full superpower capabilities, but only when they feel they can ensure they are quiet and capable enough to be worth the expense.

 

[vi-va]

China is still catching up in key technologies and doesn’t want to spend on systems that they deem already not competitive against the threats they face.

I would assume a lot of their defense budget goes to R&D, and a sizable chunk to training engineers and technicians, but once a technology is ready they start produce it in large quantities; such as the DF-41.

In the mean time they construct all the tunnels and C4ISR facilities , while labor and commodity prices (steel, concrete, etc.) are low, so that when the missiles are ready, they can be put right into the tunnels and brought to full operational capability ASAP.

IMHO, China will quietly build up 600+ DF-41 (and other icbms that will eventually be phased out) in those tunnels to equal the US and Russian limits in accordance with the New start treaty (the treaty limits to 800 icbm and slbm deployed).

That is also why we see few SSNs and SSBNs; they are mostly technology demonstrators and testbeds, until China reaches a capability threshold it feels is good enough to go into mass production; probably 2-3 dozen SSNs and a dozen SSBNs. Full superpower capabilities, but only when they feel they can ensure they are quiet and capable enough to be worth the expense.

Right approach. You should in military.

 

[applesauce]

China is still catching up in key technologies and doesn’t want to spend on systems that they deem already not competitive against the threats they face.

I would assume a lot of their defense budget goes to R&D, and a sizable chunk to training engineers and technicians, but once a technology is ready they start produce it in large quantities; such as the DF-41.

In the mean time they construct all the tunnels and C4ISR facilities , while labor and commodity prices (steel, concrete, etc.) are low, so that when the missiles are ready, they can be put right into the tunnels and brought to full operational capability ASAP.

IMHO, China will quietly build up 600+ DF-41 (and other icbms that will eventually be phased out) in those tunnels to equal the US and Russian limits in accordance with the New start treaty (the treaty limits to 800 icbm and slbm with a total of 1550 warheads deployed).

That is also why we see few SSNs and SSBNs; they are mostly technology demonstrators and testbeds, until China reaches a capability threshold it feels is good enough to go into mass production; probably 2-3 dozen SSNs and a dozen SSBNs. Full superpower capabilities, but only when they feel they can ensure they are quiet and capable enough to be worth the expense.

chinese R&D is generally in another budget separate from the military. this is also one of the reason the west cries that china is somehow hiding its spending and why their military estimates for china is always 1.5x official chinese numbers, never mind that actual war spending (think iraq, afghanistan) in the us does not count towards their military spending. as for chinese R&D, yes it actually very large, in both absolute numbers and percentage of GDP, in fact the largest in both terms among the developing world, and total is number 2 only behind the us. for comparison ,chinese R&D spending is some 2.5% of GDP, us is around 2.8% and india is at less than 1%. it looks low for india but actually most developing countries spend 1% or less, its just china is spending a lot for a developing country.

 

[FuturePAF]

chinese R&D is generally in another budget separate from the military. this is also one of the reason the west cries that china is somehow hiding its spending and why their military estimates for china is always 1.5x official chinese numbers, never mind that actual war spending (think iraq, afghanistan) in the us does not count towards their military spending. as for chinese R&D, yes it actually very large, in both absolute numbers and percentage of GDP, in fact the largest in both terms among the developing world, and total is number 2 only behind the us. for comparison ,chinese R&D spending is some 2.5% of GDP, us is around 2.8% and india is at less than 1%. it looks low for india but actually most developing countries spend 1% or less, its just china is spending a lot for a developing country.

Thanks for the clarification. In a sense, the R&D spending by private American defense contractors isn’t counted in the American defense budget, so that would be the parallel.

Does China also have a separate budget for the Second artillery corp and non-conventional systems (Nuclear, etc.)?

 

[applesauce]

Thanks for the clarification. In a sense, the R&D spending by private American defense contractors isn’t counted in the American defense budget, so that would be the parallel.

Does China also have a separate budget for the Second artillery corp and non-conventional systems (Nuclear, etc.)?

No, 2nd arty or now known as rocket force(which handles china's nuclear weapons) has its budget as a part of the normal military budget. they are just under 10% of the overall budget.