and the Ground stories ..goes like this...............
@Abingdonboy @hinduguy @Norwegian @joe-shearer
When news of the
IA’s cross-LoC raids reached the PA’s GHQ in Rawalpindi by 4.30am on January 29, it
was wrongly assumed by GHQ that these raids took place only in the PA’s Bhimber and Tatta Pani sectors inside Azad Kashmir, this being an indication of the successes of the IA’s and IAF’s diversionary tactics. Within the hour, the Pakistani Prime Minister and the PA’s Chief of the Army Staff were told about these raids as well,
following which it was decided to contact US Secretary of State John Kerry. In the US, the matter was referred by Kerry to US NSA Dr Susan Rice, who in turn contacted her Indian counterpart Ajit Doval and sought clarifications. Upon receiving the necessary details,
clarifications and assurances (that were repeated later in the day at a press-conference by the IA’s DGMO Lt Gen Ranbir Singh),
Dr Rice reverted back to Islamabad with the India-supplied updates.
The GHQ then went into a huddle to decide its next course of action.
Retaliatory cross-LoC raids were immediately ruled out, since if they were to be conducted, then the PA would have been required to admit that a cross-LoC raid had been mounted by the IA, which in turn would have meant that there indeed were
unacknowledged sanctuaries within Azad Kashmir for accommodating both terrorists and irregular active combatants from proscribed ‘tanzeems’. Consequently, the
GHQ decided on an elaborate counter-narrative based on outright denial.
This then led to the Inter Services Public Relations Directorate (ISPR) organising a press-trip to only those two sectors (Bhimber and Tatta Pani) where the IA had resorted to only cross-LoC shelling.
(Making fool its citizens and its itself, they didnt taken to places where actual strike happens)
The real insertion by foot of the IA’s SF (Para), however, took place in t
he Lipa, Shardi and Rattapani bulges (i.e. areas where Pakistan-controlled territory juts into J & K).
On October 1, the press-corps from Islamabad was helilifted first to the Bhimber helipad and from there another Mi-171 ferried the press-corps first to Baghsar, and then to Mandhole village in the PA’s Tatta Pani sector, where it was revealed that the IA’s Sepoy Chandu Babulal Chavan of 37 Rashtriya Rifles was being kept under detention at the Garrison HQ at Nakyal.
The PA, however, is most unlikely to attempt any form of escalation along either the LoC or the WB
since it presently has a deployment ratio of 54.6%, while the resting and re-equipping ratio is 12.7%, and the remaining 33% is undergoing the training cycle. This trend will continue for at least another four years, since the defunct Durand Line too became active from mid-2014. It may be recalled that since March 2002, the PA has been forced by elements that later on went on to become the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) by 2006 to wage a three-front war against the TTP and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in South Waziristan (which also included Chechan and Uighur militants; against the anti-Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan in the sensitive Darra Adam Khel-Kohat area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa or KPK (formerly NWFP) and the Shia-dominated Kurram Agency of FATA; and, against the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM), headed by Maulana Fazlullah, and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) in the Swat Valley of KPK. The TTP’s cadre base is more than 20,000 tribesmen and the Abdullah Mehsud group from the Alizai clan of the Mehsud tribe from South Waziristan commands about 5,000 fighters. Other militant groups within the TTP include Maulvi Nazir from the Kaka Khel sub-tribe of the Ahmadzai Waziri tribe (South Waziristan), Hafiz Gul Bahadur from the Ibrahim Khel clan of the Utmanzai Wazir tribe (North Waziristan), the Haqqani network using manpower from the Mezi sub-tribe of the Zadran tribe (North Waziristan), Mangal Bagh (Khyber), TNSM (Swat, Dir, Malakand), and Faqir Mohammad (Bajaur).
Some 35% of PA troops (about 180,000 out of an end-strength of approximately 550,000 active-duty personnel and another 500,000 reservists) were engaged in LIC campaigns since 2007 till 2014 and are still literally bogged down throughout the entire 27,200 square kilometres of FATA. Formations fully committed to on-LIC operations include the 37 Mechanised Infantry Division and 17 Ubfantry vDivision from Mangla-based I Corps in Swat, 19 Infantry Division from X Corps in northern Swat (based out of Jhelum), 7 Infantry Division from Rawalpindi-based X Corps in North Waziristan (based out of Mardan), 9 Infantry Division from Peshawar-based XI Corps in South Waziristan (based out of Kohat),14 Division from Multan-based II Corps, Jhelum-based 23 Division of the X Corps, and 40 Infantry Division. The Gujranwala-based XXX Corps and the Bahawalpur-based XXXI Corps lent one brigade each. In all, there are approximately 17 infantry brigades or 45 infantry battalions, and 58 Frontier Corps (FC) wings now engaged in LIC operations. By mid-2011, 1,83,400 troops had a westward deployment orientation, while another 10,000 are now abroad on UN-related peacekeeping missions
The five defensive holding Corps of the PA against the IB are: XXXI Corps (Bahawalpur) that has 18 Brigades of which six are to guard the border and now one of its Divisions and two Brigades out of these are in FATA; XXX Corps (Gujranwala) has four (14, 10, 54, 104) of out of its nine Brigades employed in FATA; X Corps (Rawalpindi) has a total 17 Brigades of which 13 Brigades should be deployed against the IB but now one of its of Divisions and five (1, 7, 26, 28, 333) Brigades are in FATA; V Corps (Karachi) has six out of its 10 Brigades for the IB of which one (105) is in FATA; and IV Corps (Lahore) has 17 Brigades out of which eight should be facing the IB but three of them (22, 105, 106) are in FATA. Given such an extensive deployment along the Durand Line in accordance with the PA’s ‘seize and hold’ force posture, the PA today is in no position to mount any credible offensive AirLand campaign against its Indian counterpart, and this will remain the ground reality at least till 2020. It is also therefore no wonder that the PA has between 2009 and 2013 been able to conduct only four field exercises under the
Azm-E-Nau (New Resolve) series, with the last one being just a table-top exercise.