Indian Rafale Deal Final By September. Any Breaths Held?

[lightoftruth]

Well, not mine. But there's definitely movement. Definitely. Two prominent newspaper reports today, likely from the same source, indicate India's painfully protracted M-MRCA jet negotiations for 126 Dassault Rafales have just entered a phase of finality. This report today by friend Rajat Pandit over at the Times of India says final negotiations could be "wrapped up" in as little as three months, with three sub-committees tasked with ironing out stubborn folds, finally getting the job done. This other report by friend and network colleague Gautam Dutt concurs on the three month guess and that the sub-committees on technical maintenance, offsets and transfer of technology have finished their work. Both reports say it's all guns firing for a final draft contract with negotiations to throttle up this month.

IAF chief Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha met Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, and is likely to meet Defence Minister Arun Jaitley shortly to lay down acquisition priorities, a list known to be topped by the jet requirement. The M-MRCA has run for nearly 7 years now, though it's nearly a decade-and-a-half old if you really look at when the IAF first put out requirements for a large quantity of medium multirole jets.

Dassault won't be holding its breath, but there's a spring in their step. (At least over the phone.) What I can tell you for sure is there's a push from the system that simply wasn't there since the Rafale was downselected over two years ago. More soon.

Track full coverage of the M-MRCA deal here.

Livefist: Indian Rafale Deal Final By September. Any Breaths Held?

 

[Anony]

It's too late now. No more I am supporting this deal. If possible, I think India should buy key critical technologies off the shelf and scrap this deal. If the deal is signed end of this year, then IAF will receive the first two squadron from France not before 2020. It will take HAL close to 12 years and more to deliver the remaining aircraft, i.e. last batch of Rafale will roll out of the production facility in the 2027 - 2030.

Rafale is a very good fighter but it will remain a 4.5th gen fighter, and post 2025 will be the era of 5th gen fighters. Spending $20 billion i.e. close to 5-6 years of IAF's budget (only arm purchase) on one program whose relevancy for the next 40 years is a big question. Add to that the upgradation cost which will surely be way more than the procurement cost(take Mirage 2000 example),
RAFALE IS A BIG NO

 

[Luftwaffe]

It's too late now. No more I am supporting this deal. If possible, I think India should buy key critical technologies off the shelf and scrap this deal. If the deal is signed end of this year, then IAF will receive the first two squadron from France not before 2020. It will take HAL close to 12 years and more to deliver the remaining aircraft, i.e. last batch of Rafale will roll out of the production facility in the 2027 - 2030.

Rafale is a very good fighter but it will remain a 4.5th gen fighter, and post 2025 will be the era of 5th gen fighters. Spending $20 billion i.e. close to 5-6 years of IAF's budget (only arm purchase) on one program whose relevancy for the next 40 years is a big question. Add to that the upgradation cost which will surely be way more than the procurement cost(take Mirage 2000 example),
RAFALE IS A BIG NO

It is a superior Aircraft in every possible way to replace Jaguars and Mig-27s and later on after 126 Numbers more orders could be placed to replace Mirage 2000 [that would go under upgrades] in next 15 years. The original envisioned program to replace Mig-21 is shelved most likely to Rafale those Mig-21s would be replaced by LCA.

 

[sputnik]

Today french Rafales are in India holding Exercise with IAF in Jodhpur. I hope they remain here with us after conclusion of exercise.

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

It's too late now. No more I am supporting this deal. If possible, I think India should buy key critical technologies off the shelf and scrap this deal. If the deal is signed end of this year, then IAF will receive the first two squadron from France not before 2020. It will take HAL close to 12 years and more to deliver the remaining aircraft, i.e. last batch of Rafale will roll out of the production facility in the 2027 - 2030.

Rafale is a very good fighter but it will remain a 4.5th gen fighter, and post 2025 will be the era of 5th gen fighters. Spending $20 billion i.e. close to 5-6 years of IAF's budget (only arm purchase) on one program whose relevancy for the next 40 years is a big question. Add to that the upgradation cost which will surely be way more than the procurement cost(take Mirage 2000 example),
RAFALE IS A BIG NO

Take the deal or see our squadron strength fall to 25.Those are the options.
Also without rafale we won't have any true medium ground strike aircraft,jaguar is obsolete.Mirage 2000 too few,su-30 too big RCS and against newer radars rafale's spectra will be much more deadly.
Also with rafale PAF will be thoroughly outclassed giving us total dominance for at least 5-7 years till they can get any 5th gen aircraft.
Also we will get the meteor BVR with it which is simply the best AAM in the world....it'll eliminate and reverse the slight edge amraam has over our r-77 now.

 

[janon]

I would have preferred a cheaper aircraft. But the need for modern MMRCAs is very much there in the IAF.

Add to that the upgradation cost which will surely be way more than the procurement cost(take Mirage 2000 example),

The hope is that with deep ToT, and with domestic manufacture, we would be able to upgrade them ourselves, at least in part if not fully. Mirages were directly purchased from France, and our people didn't know the technologies that went into it. Besides, our aeronautics industry will also be mature enough by that time (having worked on the LCA, AMCA and manufacture of Rafales and FGFAs) to be able to develop enough technology in house.

it will remain a 4.5th gen fighter, and post 2025 will be the era of 5th gen fighters.

Is the present time the era of 4th and 4.5th gen fighters? If so, why are we flying hundreds of 3rd gen aircrafts? If we can fly 3rd gen aircrafts today (and very likely, until 2018) then surely we can fly 4.5th gen fighters post 2025? 15-20 years from now, only a third of IAF's aircrafts will be fifth gen. The rest will be non stealthy, and Rafales will be the best among them.

then IAF will receive the first two squadron from France not before 2020.

The contract stipulates that the OEM will deliver the first squadron off the shelf within three years of signing the contract, so 2017.

 

[OrionHunter]

Rafale is a very good fighter but it will remain a 4.5th gen fighter, and post 2025 will be the era of 5th gen fighters.

Don't count on it. Call me Nostradamus if you like but post 2025 air warfare will be all about stealth combat drones. 5th gen aircraft will be passe. The future of manned stealth aircraft is rather bleak. India must therefore go all guns blazing to produce UCSDs (Unmanned Combat Stealth Drones) within a decade and have a formidable drone force by 2025.

They're deadly and most importantly, cost effective with zero risk to trained pilots remotely controlling them from ground stations with complete situational awareness.

 

[JanjaWeed]

 

[Anony]

But the need for modern MMRCAs is very much there in the IAF.

Is the present time the era of 4th and 4.5th gen fighters? If so, why are we flying hundreds of 3rd gen aircrafts? If we can fly 3rd gen aircrafts today (and very likely, until 2018) then surely we can fly 4.5th gen fighters post 2025? 15-20 years from now, only a third of IAF's aircrafts will be fifth gen. The rest will be non stealthy, and Rafales will be the best among them.

The contract stipulates that the OEM will deliver the first squadron off the shelf within three years of signing the contract, so 2017.

Take the deal or see our squadron strength fall to 25.Those are the options.
Also without rafale we won't have any true medium ground strike aircraft,jaguar is obsolete.Mirage 2000 too few,su-30 too big RCS and against newer radars rafale's spectra will be much more deadly.
Also with rafale PAF will be thoroughly outclassed giving us total dominance for at least 5-7 years till they can get any 5th gen aircraft.
Also we will get the meteor BVR with it which is simply the best AAM in the world....it'll eliminate and reverse the slight edge amraam has over our r-77 now.

We need to understand the threat perception. We have/will have Pakistan & China as our adversaries. For Pakistan, whatever IAF has is more than enough. LCA(inclusive of Mk2) will be more than enough for any operation against PAF. With that we already have operational Sukhoi squadron on western front. With regards to China, I think PLAAF will position their 5th gen fighters towards India post 2025. And by 2030, in any conflict with China, IAF will face only 5th gen fighters. So the point is not about the capability that Rafale will give today but in its entire lifetime.

You guys are not realizing that first squadron may enter in 2018 but the last squadron will enter only in 2028 -2030, when it will become obsolete at the time of induction if we consider threat perception from China, though it will be very much in the fray against Pakistan, but the question is does for Pakistan we need such a platform, LCA with few Sukhoi is and will be more than enough for PAF for the next 20 years.

We can directly buy Meteor, if we want. Spectra will surely become obsolete by 2025. So we need to realize that whatever capabilities of Rafale one is embarking on will become obsolete by the time the entire fleet will be inducted.

And there are many more reasons, but I am in my office right now so can't spend more time writing

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

We need to understand the threat perception. We have/will have Pakistan & China as our adversaries. For Pakistan, whatever IAF has is more than enough. LCA(inclusive of Mk2) will be more than enough for any operation against PAF. With that we already have operational Sukhoi squadron on western front. With regards to China, I think PLAAF will position their 5th gen fighters towards India post 2025. And by 2030, in any conflict with China, IAF will face only 5th gen fighters. So the point is not about the capability that Rafale will give today but in its entire lifetime.

You guys are not realizing that first squadron may enter in 2018 but the last squadron will enter only in 2028 -2030, when it will become obsolete at the time of induction if we consider threat perception from China, though it will be very much in the fray against Pakistan, but the question is does for Pakistan we need such a platform, LCA with few Sukhoi is and will be more than enough for PAF for the next 20 years.

We can directly buy Meteor, if we want. Spectra will surely become obsolete by 2025. So we need to realize that whatever capabilities of Rafale one is embarking on will become obsolete by the time the entire fleet will be inducted.

And there are many more reasons, but I am in my office right now so can't spend more time writing

I think ur mistaking that entire fleet can be converted to 5th gen so quickly..5th gen is brutally costly.Even usa can't replace its whole fleet with 5th gen and has been stalling...huge numbers of 5th gen will appear post 2030 only.Till then rafale would have served us very well for 10 yrs and will still be viable as a ground attack craft.
If we don't get rafale in meantime our sq strength goes down to 25 which will leave us wide open to total compromise in a war with plaaf if paf even mounts any pressure on the west by posturing.We can't go under 30 squadrons..ever.

 

[Yeti]

Remember we must replace the Mirages, Jaguars not to mention the Mig 21's that is why Rafale will be signed it is a key deal for the IAF. The ease of switching roles from A2A to A2G as well as recon role is why the Rafale best fits the bill.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Sounds very plausible to me........

 

[Yeti]

Remember we must replace the Mirages, Jaguars not to mention the Mig 21's that is why Rafale will be signed it is a key deal for the IAF. The ease of switching roles from A2A to A2G as well as recon role is why the Rafale best fits the bill.

The tender also states 50% of the contract will be ploughed back into India and plus we will get tech transfer too.

 

[Shadow_Hunter]

Rafale is actually 5th Gen according to French airforce. After all it is the successor to the 4th gen mirage. The only reason it is dubbed 4.5 gen is because of the lack of stealth. In all other aspects, it is as good as 5th Gen.

 

[Storm Force]

defo the best late 4th generation fighter in the world