BJP win, Cong rout: What the Pew Research poll says.
A new poll conducted by Pew Research suggests that between the BJP and the Congress, Indian voters are leaning heavily towards the former with almost three times the number of voters preferring the party. According to the poll, 63 percent of the 2,464 respondents in the poll said they would prefer that the BJP lead the next government. Only 19 percent said they would prefer the Congress to remain in power. Twelve percent support other parties.
A Washington-based think tank, interviewed 2,464 randomly selected adults in states and territories that are home to roughly 91 percent of the Indian population. The poll, conducted between 7 December and 12 January, has a margin of error of 3.8 percent. Backing the BJP and Modi.
Backing the BJP and Modi. The poll found that the party was favoured across age groups, gender, income groups and in rural and urban areas. Most of those polled said that they were unsatisfied with the manner in which the country was being run. Only 29 percent said they were satisfied with the manner in which the country is being run and 70 percent said they were dissatisfied. The dissatisfaction with the current state of the country runs across gender, age groups and income groups, the poll found.
Not surprisingly the highest backing for the BJP is in the northern states of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and Delhi. The poll found that the party’s weakest backing is in Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and ironically enough, Gujarat. The little support the Congress does have, it enjoys mainly in the east, with about 30 percent of those polled in Odisha, Bihar, West Bengal and Jharkhand backing the party. The BJP can take heart from the fact that even in south India, traditionally not its bastion, it enjoys high approval ratings. The poll found that 58 percent of the respondents believe the BJP will do better at creating employment and 56 percent believe that they will do a better job at reducing terrorism.
They also believe that the BJP will battle corruption better. A majority of those polled even believe the BJP can end the gridlock in Parliament (47 percent) and 54 percent say the party will do a better job in alleviating the condition of the poor. When it comes to picking a candidate the poll found that Narendra Modi led the pack with 78 percent of the respondents in his favour and only 16 percent against him. Strangely enough the second most favourably viewed personality is Anna Hazare, with 69 percent in his favour and 17 percent against him. It may explain why Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee won't complain about having the anti-corruption activist on her side this elections. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh expectedly found favour among only 52 percent of the respondents but that was higher than Rahul Gandhi who was favoured by only 50 percent of the respondents.
However, in a country where coalition governments have dominated for over two decades now, the poll ignores the presence of regional parties completely and doesn't offer the best view of the upcoming polls. There is a good reason why the Congress, and even the the BJP with its high approval ratings, are scrambling to find regional allies before the polls.