There is a anti incumbency wave for sure, because never in the history of India a prime minister rules 10 years in a row other then nehru.
But the mandate is scattered,
bjp have no national leader that's why they imported one from a state.
Even after getting some seats and when near the power all the hell will break and it will be civil war in bjp.
And not to forget old cunning fox advani he will not give up easily in the name of attracting allies they will dump modi. 
For voters local leader + good MP candidates matters most as they are their people and representative and bjp have none in most of the states.
The modi's role is limited to the providing billion of black money, spreading propogenda and attracting crowd but its the local candidates that attracts votes otherwise people get turn off.
They know its the MP who work for their local issues not PM of India.
AAP will eat up anti congress votes in the urban areas.
Congress will attract the votes of girls, dalits, Muslims, Christians, Brahmins rural India, old congress votes who don't came out to vote will vote this time because of a Gandhi.
