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[HariPrasad]

bjp-192-210 and nda-211-231 ---as per CSDS- CNN IBN cong-92-108 upa-107-128

I watched it yesterday. In last election UPA got around 235 seats with 31.5 % vote share. Here BJP is getting 34% votes and NDA 36%. How can they got lesser seats compared to UPA?

Same is the case for UP. BJP is getting 38% vote in four party contest but they projects 41-49 seats only. The figure as per me should not be less than 55 seats as per me. Same is the case for Bihar, They projects 38 to 40% votes with 16-23 seats. In a triangular contest like Delhi, Congress got only 8/70 seats in spite of 25% vote share, How Nitish with 20% vote share can get 7-13 seats? In my opinion BJP should not get less than 26 to 28 seats and Nithish should not get more than 5.

 

[Puchtoon]

I watched it yesterday. In last election UPA got around 235 seats with 31.5 % vote share. Here BJP is getting 34% votes and NDA 36%. How can they got lesser seats compared to UPA?

Same is the case for UP. BJP is getting 38% vote in four party contest but they projects 41-49 seats only. The figure as per me should not be less than 55 seats as per me. Same is the case for Bihar, They projects 38 to 40% votes with 16-23 seats. In a triangular contest like Delhi, Congress got only 8/70 seats in spite of 25% vote share, How Nitish with 20% vote share can get 7-13 seats? In my opinion BJP should not get less than 26 to 28 seats and Nithish should not get more than 5.

Let me answer you :-

1.Cong voteshare is spread across in all states ,so even if it increases 1-2% Huge 60-70 seats gain occur while in case of bjp its not the same case.

Imean lets us take example of orrisa , cong usually is second in orrisa ,so if it gains 1% national vote ,it will propel it to winning position but the same incremental vote will propel bjp to be second or third

2.In bihar BJP doesn't exist in some areas due to alliance with jdu for 17 years,39% means 50-60% in core areas

 

[heisenberg]

I really think BJP needs to look into the possibility of EVM fraud in these elections.

well that is cynical...i don't think that will happen in 2014

 

[Fireurimagination]

BJP poised for best-ever tally, Narendra Modi set to be PM, say polls

 

[HariPrasad]

Let me answer you :-

1.Cong voteshare is spread across in all states ,so even if it increases 1-2% Huge 60-70 seats gain occur while in case of bjp its not the same case.

Imean lets us take example of orrisa , cong usually is second in orrisa ,so if it gains 1% national vote ,it will propel it to winning position but the same incremental vote will propel bjp to be second or third

2.In bihar BJP doesn't exist in some areas due to alliance with jdu for 17 years,39% means 50-60% in core areas

You stated it exactly opposite.

For a party to get more seats with same vote percentage, Votes need to be concentrated in small geographical area. Do you know when Vajpayee become PM and BJP got 188 seats, BJP vote share was not more than congress but it was concentrated in northan part of India.

 

[Puchtoon]

You stated it exactly opposite.

For a party to get more seats with same vote percentage, Votes need to be concentrated in small geographical area. Do you know when Vajpayee become PM and BJP got 188 seats, BJP vote share was not more than congress but it was concentrated in northan part of India.

Nah i said correct,you are in doubt.

Look lets take RLD which is a geographically concentrated party ,OK? now with very few % votes it can win 7 seats in Jat dominated west up,Now you increase its voteshare by 20% what will happen initially that it will start consolidating in those core areas BUT will not win extra seats ,add few % more it will start showing as third force in other areas ,add few more = second force and so on.

So to win 40 seats it will require 45%+ for RLD,but BJP can get it at 36-38%

At vajpayee's time BJP had alliances,BJP fought less seats but won more VS(per seat) in 1999 than 1998

BTW vajpayee NEVER EVER got 188(peak was 182) and BJP is strong in north so ya at 25% it can win 182 but to go beyond 270 on its own ,it requires 40%+.

 

[HariPrasad]

Nah i said correct,you are in doubt.

Look lets take RLD which is a geographically concentrated party ,OK? now with very few % votes it can win 7 seats in Jat dominated west up,Now you increase its voteshare by 20% what will happen initially that it will start consolidating in those core areas BUT will not win extra seats ,add few % more it will start showing as third force in other areas ,add few more = second force and so on.

So to win 40 seats it will require 45%+ for RLD,but BJP can get it at 36-38%

At vajpayee's time BJP had alliances,BJP fought less seats but won more VS(per seat) in 1999 than 1998

Imagine a scenario if BJP had same percentage of Vote equally distributed in India. Had it won same number of seats? No because of scattered votes not enough to convert it into seats. BJP is getting 10 to 20 percentage of votes in recent opinion poll. All these votes are failing to convert into seats in states like Kerala, TN, etc. If BJP can get this votes in UP or Magharashtra, they can actually Sweep.

Let us take your own example of RLD. Had the RLD get same Nombers of votes equally scattered amongs whole UP, Can RLD win 7 seats? No because the votes are scattered.

 

[Jason bourne]

TIMES NOW
Law Minister Somnath Bharthi lashes out at media, asks, "How much did Modiji pay you?"

 

[HariPrasad]

TIMES NOW
Law Minister Somnath Bharthi lashes out at media, asks, "How much did Modiji pay you?"

Now a days People take the Name of Modi to get some Media coverage.

 

[Roybot]

TIMES NOW
Law Minister Somnath Bharthi lashes out at media, asks, "How much did Modiji pay you?"

Somnath Bharti raid: women's panel to meet Lt Governor today to demand FIR against minister | NDTV.com

Spammer has gone mental.

 

[Puchtoon]

Imagine a scenario if BJP had same percentage of Vote equally distributed in India. Had it won same number of seats? No because of scattered votes not enough to convert it into seats. BJP is getting 10 to 20 percentage of votes in recent opinion poll. All these votes are failing to convert into seats in states like Kerala, TN, etc. If BJP can get this votes in UP or Magharashtra, they can actually Sweep.

1.My point of congress VS spread across states means that congress EXIST in almost all corner of country.
2.Yes Had BJP been in All states it would have SWEPT with 34% national vote,check the polls BJP is 20%+ ahead of the inc in many north indian states (consolidating),which is unnecessary ,congress swept RJ by just 9% VS difference,that's where the vs is going and the rest in other places.

 

[45'22']

TIMES NOW
Law Minister Somnath Bharthi lashes out at media, asks, "How much did Modiji pay you?"

the reproter should have asked him......agar aap hote toh kitna dete

#NayakReturns

 

[HariPrasad]

Pl look into the graph. How Modi's projection has changed the equation. Even Muslim Support have Increased. Support across all groups have increased.

 

[HariPrasad]

Congress is down in all group except ST and Muslims.

 

[Puchtoon]

Pl look into the graph. How Modi's projection has changed the equation. Even Muslim Support have Increased. Support across all group has increased.

this looks similar(1998)

No wonder some article stated that modi is great at consolidating former bjp votebanks .