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JanjaWeed
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Hell all.. crucial voting day today. Which way the hawa is blowing? @arp2041 @GreenFoe @jbond197 @CorporateAffairs @jha @Sidak @chak de INDIA @kurup @HariPrasad @Jason bourne will it be a decider today?
arp2041
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BJP+ won 49 out of the 121 seats last time, i m counting that as a minimum, adding massive gains in Rajasthan, out of 121 it should be 60+
jbond197
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11 AM Analysis with Dr. Praveen Patil
The second major day of polling in the 2014 calendar also happens to be the biggest day when 122 Parliamentary constituencies spread across 13 states and union territories will elect their MPs. Early voting trends are quite interesting to say the least.
At 11 AM, different states are reporting different dynamics, which is why Indian elections are such a maze that haunt political analysts and psephologists alike. If Rajasthan saw very high early polling (indicating a preconceived vote?), then the heartland, like always was a slow initial turnout region. Maharashtra and Karnataka also saw some brisk early polling.
In Bihar, very early trends were showing BJP+ in the pole position by a long distance. Looks like Bihar is fast emerging as a one horse race for all practical purposes.
As expected, MP is today showing a big BJP lead of more than 15% across the spectrum in very early trends. What is important to note here is that BJP’s vote is almost equal along gender lines, whereas Congress’s vote has a male bias to it, which indicates that Shivraj Singh Chohan, who is widely known Shivraj Mama, still has considerable hold over the female populace.
Karnataka
BJP has taken a big lead in North Bangalore and a slender lead in South Bangalore. There are some big surprises in store for our reports in the subsequent hours.
The second major day of polling in the 2014 calendar also happens to be the biggest day when 122 Parliamentary constituencies spread across 13 states and union territories will elect their MPs. Early voting trends are quite interesting to say the least.
At 11 AM, different states are reporting different dynamics, which is why Indian elections are such a maze that haunt political analysts and psephologists alike. If Rajasthan saw very high early polling (indicating a preconceived vote?), then the heartland, like always was a slow initial turnout region. Maharashtra and Karnataka also saw some brisk early polling.
In Bihar, very early trends were showing BJP+ in the pole position by a long distance. Looks like Bihar is fast emerging as a one horse race for all practical purposes.
- There seems to be a solid consolidation of upper castes behind BJP in the ratio of about 70% for BJP and 30% for the rest
- OBCs including Yadavs and Kurmis seems to be behind BJP in the range of 50% for BJP and 50% for the rest
- Even a substantial number of Muslims of Bihar (possibly the only heartland state) seem to be voting for BJP, in continuation with the trends reported on 10th April. In fact, there is a tight race between BJP and JDU as the number two choice for Muslim voters of Bihar behind UPA.
- Currently UP seems to be divided something like this – 3:2:2:2, where BJP is getting 3 out of every 10 votes while SP, BSP and Congress-RLD are all getting about 2 votes each. At a similar point of time on 10th April BJP was getting about 4 to 5 votes.
- Surprisingly, Congress seems to be in race in the early voting period at least, which could only help BJP eventually by dividing the opposition votes.
- Worryingly for the BJP, a substantial section of the MBC (Most Backward Caste) vote is accruing to the BSP; this process began on April 10th and is probably gaining some traction now. BSP also seems to be slowly becoming the number one choice of the Muslm voter. Since we classically tend to under-estimate the BSP’s core Dalit vote which is probably now getting augmented by MBC and Muslim vote, the dynamics of UP electoral scene may change. These are very early trends, but we will have to keep a close watch on all the happenings over the course of the day today.
- Is BJP emerging as the party of Upper Castes and upper crust of OBCs only, while BSP seems to be getting the MBC-Dalit-Muslim vote? Are some of the disgruntled SP voters moving towards BSP rather than BJP, or is this just limited to early trends of a few seats in today’s phase? We will try and answer these questions today and tomorrow.
As expected, MP is today showing a big BJP lead of more than 15% across the spectrum in very early trends. What is important to note here is that BJP’s vote is almost equal along gender lines, whereas Congress’s vote has a male bias to it, which indicates that Shivraj Singh Chohan, who is widely known Shivraj Mama, still has considerable hold over the female populace.
Karnataka
BJP has taken a big lead in North Bangalore and a slender lead in South Bangalore. There are some big surprises in store for our reports in the subsequent hours.
arp2041
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& they say they want to have CLEAN POLITICS 
@Prometheus chk this one, any thing now for winning ???
@JanjaWeed @ExtraOdinary @Sidak @Indischer @jha @GreenFoe @chak de INDIA
jbond197
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Constituency Watch on 17th April
Bangalore South (Karnataka): In this high profile battle of the Brahmins which has attracted all the eyeballs of India, Nandan Nilekani of Congress is taking on 5 time MP of BJP, Anant Kumar. A high-end analysis of this seat tells us that Congress should take big leads in at least 4 assembly segments – BTM Layout, Vijayanagar, Govindrajanagar and Chikpet to defeat Anant Kumar who is strong in Banashankari, Jaya Nagar, Bommanahalli and Padmanabha Nagar.
What is actually happening on the ground? Anant Kumar has taken slender leads in Vijayanagar and Govindrajanagar, while Congress’s lead in BTM layout is not too huge. This has created a favourable situation for BJP’s Anant Kumar till at least the lunch hour, will he be able to hold on to this leads till the end of the day remains to be seen
Rampur (Uttar Pradesh): This is the Azam Khan Stronghold where filmstar Jaya Prada had been elected the last two times. This time there is a three cornered fight between BJP, SP and Congress which has once again fielded the Rampur royalty from Suar.
This is once again a seat which we can use as a prime example of how the Muslim vote is getting divided in Western UP, not just in overall terms but also within a constituency. Yet, this is also a seat that BJP has won only once in 1999, so this should be a barometer for the Modi wave in UP. As of lunch hour BJP is trailing at the third position, so we are keeping a close watch on this seat.
Pataliputra (Bihar): This is one of those high profile contests that has drawn the attention on the nation. This was a seat that RJD top leader Lalu Prasad Yadav had lost in 2009 and had fielded his daughter this time around.
Here, as elsewhere in Bihar, BJP has taken a big lead and Lalu’s daughter is possibly in for a rout! Till lunch hour BJP was almost double that of RJD.
Bangalore South (Karnataka): In this high profile battle of the Brahmins which has attracted all the eyeballs of India, Nandan Nilekani of Congress is taking on 5 time MP of BJP, Anant Kumar. A high-end analysis of this seat tells us that Congress should take big leads in at least 4 assembly segments – BTM Layout, Vijayanagar, Govindrajanagar and Chikpet to defeat Anant Kumar who is strong in Banashankari, Jaya Nagar, Bommanahalli and Padmanabha Nagar.
What is actually happening on the ground? Anant Kumar has taken slender leads in Vijayanagar and Govindrajanagar, while Congress’s lead in BTM layout is not too huge. This has created a favourable situation for BJP’s Anant Kumar till at least the lunch hour, will he be able to hold on to this leads till the end of the day remains to be seen
Rampur (Uttar Pradesh): This is the Azam Khan Stronghold where filmstar Jaya Prada had been elected the last two times. This time there is a three cornered fight between BJP, SP and Congress which has once again fielded the Rampur royalty from Suar.
This is once again a seat which we can use as a prime example of how the Muslim vote is getting divided in Western UP, not just in overall terms but also within a constituency. Yet, this is also a seat that BJP has won only once in 1999, so this should be a barometer for the Modi wave in UP. As of lunch hour BJP is trailing at the third position, so we are keeping a close watch on this seat.
Pataliputra (Bihar): This is one of those high profile contests that has drawn the attention on the nation. This was a seat that RJD top leader Lalu Prasad Yadav had lost in 2009 and had fielded his daughter this time around.
Here, as elsewhere in Bihar, BJP has taken a big lead and Lalu’s daughter is possibly in for a rout! Till lunch hour BJP was almost double that of RJD.
jbond197
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Elections 2014 LIVE: 60 pc voting in Bengal till 1 pm; Jaitley slams Rahul over ‘ullu’ barb | The Indian Express
60% voting till 1 pm in WB.. something is not right!!
Even Maharashtra is also 31% till 1 pm..
Live: 31% votes cast in Maharashtra till 1pm in LS polls - Hindustan Times
60% voting till 1 pm in WB.. something is not right!!
Even Maharashtra is also 31% till 1 pm..
Live: 31% votes cast in Maharashtra till 1pm in LS polls - Hindustan Times
Jason bourne
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jbond197
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yes looks like WB will end 125% voting
Yeah, after all there are good number of secular votes there!! Best part is - they got privilege to vote for multiple secular parties!!
Star Wars
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60% by 1 pm is very suspicious ...thats an unrealistic figure ....
Soumitra
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@Prometheus chk this one, any thing now for winning ???
@JanjaWeed @ExtraOdinary @Sidak @Indischer @jha @GreenFoe @chak de INDIA
EC should take strict note of this
jbond197
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If there is no mischief and the numbers are genuine then that is a kind of bad news for Didi!!
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