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IMF Reference paper, please use it as needed in debating with those that say India low inflation is due to "luck" from commodity price crash etc. Feel free to read the whole paper like me, but I have posted the conclusion here as a summary for your convenience:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp16166.pdf

CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Over the last decade, inflation has emerged as a primary concern for India’s policymakers. Worries grew as the inflation rate rose since 2006 and remained elevated and sticky at around the 9% level between 2006 and 2013. The inflation rate, however, has fallen dramatically since then. After peaking at 12.1% year-on-year growth in November 2013, headline CPI inflation collapsed to 4.3% in December 2014 and has averaged less than 5% in 2015. This paper analyzes the dramatic decline in inflation, and quantifies the contribution of different factors in explaining the disinflation process.

We estimate an augmented Phillips Curve for India and use it to quantify the extent to which different factors were responsible for the disinflation between 2013/14 and 2014/15. Our main findings are described as follows:

20% of the disinflation can be explained by a sharp decline in the growth of the “discretionary” component of MSPs. 

- The bulk of the disinflation (45%), however, can be attributed to a moderation in the historical dynamics of inflation that influence contemporaneous inflation. This moderation is likely reflecting a softening of backward looking (adaptive) expectations as well as capturing the institutional process of wage and MSP setting that amplifies the effects of shocks and leads to persistence in inflation. 

- We also find an important role for forward-looking expectations. Almost 35% of the disinflation can be attributed to this. That said, forward-looking expectations could capture both the effects of the new monetary policy regime announced in the first quarter of 2014, but may also be reflecting more benign future expectations of oil and commodities, that may have translated into wage and price setting behavior. 

- Finally, we find that the role of global factors, namely global crude prices and exchange rates, in explaining the disinflation between 2013/14 and 2014/15 is less than 15%, though the contribution of global factors rises if we choose alternative time periods. 

- Finally, output gaps are estimated to have closed during this period, and hence the business cycle was actually putting upward pressure on inflation at that time.

There seems a general perception that India’s disinflation has been achieved mainly at the altar of good luck due to the collapse in global commodity prices, or through a sacrifice in domestic growth emanating from a sharp fall in domestic demand. Our empirical analysis, however, finds that these factors do not explain the bulk of the disinflation between 2013/14 and 2014/15. Instead, our findings suggest that the evolution of inflation is a complex mix of the state of the business cycle, inflation expectations, institutional structures and global factors. What we essentially find is that exogenous shocks to inflation – from lower discretionary component of MSPs, a new monetary regime, global commodities – were perpetuated through backward looking expectations and domestic institutional structures that amplified the influence of the original shocks.


@PARIKRAMA @anant_s @Abingdonboy @ranjeet @Ryuzaki @kadamba-warrior @proud_indian @farhan_9909 @Bilal9
et al
 
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IMF Reference paper, please use it as needed in debating with those that say India low inflation is due to "luck" from commodity price crash etc. Feel free to read the whole paper like me, but I have posted the conclusion here as a summary for your convenience:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp16166.pdf

CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Over the last decade, inflation has emerged as a primary concern for India’s policymakers. Worries grew as the inflation rate rose since 2006 and remained elevated and sticky at around the 9% level between 2006 and 2013. The inflation rate, however, has fallen dramatically since then. After peaking at 12.1% year-on-year growth in November 2013, headline CPI inflation collapsed to 4.3% in December 2014 and has averaged less than 5% in 2015. This paper analyzes the dramatic decline in inflation, and quantifies the contribution of different factors in explaining the disinflation process.

We estimate an augmented Phillips Curve for India and use it to quantify the extent to which different factors were responsible for the disinflation between 2013/14 and 2014/15. Our main findings are described as follows:

20% of the disinflation can be explained by a sharp decline in the growth of the “discretionary” component of MSPs. 

- The bulk of the disinflation (45%), however, can be attributed to a moderation in the historical dynamics of inflation that influence contemporaneous inflation. This moderation is likely reflecting a softening of backward looking (adaptive) expectations as well as capturing the institutional process of wage and MSP setting that amplifies the effects of shocks and leads to persistence in inflation. 

- We also find an important role for forward-looking expectations. Almost 35% of the disinflation can be attributed to this. That said, forward-looking expectations could capture both the effects of the new monetary policy regime announced in the first quarter of 2014, but may also be reflecting more benign future expectations of oil and commodities, that may have translated into wage and price setting behavior. 

- Finally, we find that the role of global factors, namely global crude prices and exchange rates, in explaining the disinflation between 2013/14 and 2014/15 is less than 15%, though the contribution of global factors rises if we choose alternative time periods. 

- Finally, output gaps are estimated to have closed during this period, and hence the business cycle was actually putting upward pressure on inflation at that time.

There seems a general perception that India’s disinflation has been achieved mainly at the altar of good luck due to the collapse in global commodity prices, or through a sacrifice in domestic growth emanating from a sharp fall in domestic demand. Our empirical analysis, however, finds that these factors do not explain the bulk of the disinflation between 2013/14 and 2014/15. Instead, our findings suggest that the evolution of inflation is a complex mix of the state of the business cycle, inflation expectations, institutional structures and global factors. What we essentially find is that exogenous shocks to inflation – from lower discretionary component of MSPs, a new monetary regime, global commodities – were perpetuated through backward looking expectations and domestic institutional structures that amplified the influence of the original shocks.

64831860.jpg
 
हरे कृष्ण हरे कृष्ण,कृष्ण कृष्ण हरे हरे
हरे राम हरे राम, राम राम हरे हरे
28-08-2016

#Economy:Govt panel to suggest ways to step up card transactions. The purpose is to reduce cash transactions to promote card payments through incentives such as tax rebates and cash back schemes. The panel has been tasked with reviewing the payment system in the country and suggest measures for encouraging digital payments.

#Finance:The Govt is firm on increasing the proportion of investment from provident fund corpus in equity markets via the exchange traded fund (ETF) route to 10%, from the current 5%.

#After a series of lacklustre festive seasons, the real estate sector is hoping for a much needed bounce-back in the residential market.
Liquidity triggered by the Seventh Pay Commission and muted property prices in most parts of the country could help put the sector back on track.

#Mera Bharat mahaan: India has attracted investment from 37 mobile manufacturing companies in last one year that have generated 40,000 direct jobs and 1.25 lakh indirect employment.

भारत माता की जय
 
Bharat mahaan: India has attracted investment from 37 mobile manufacturing companies in last one year that have generated 40,000 direct jobs and 1.25 lakh indirect employment.

@Bilal9 This is sort of what I was talking about in the earlier thread we were discussing about employment patterns/trends in India.

There is often an indirect job multiplier that varies.
 
Is this part of DFC?
No Sir.
Presently, Double stacked train movement is allowed between Pipavav and Mundra Ports in Gujarat to Rewari/Faridabad in Haryana (ICD terminals).
The video shown above is from same line.
Pipavav_train_india_APM_Terminals.jpg

APM terminal Pipavav
However Western DFC is being designed to operate 4500-5000 Ton Double stacked container trains under electrical traction from JNPT to Dadari (UP).

I think DFC is still being tendered/under construction?
Deadline is december 2019 for both WDFC and EDFC to become fully operational. A 136 km Mughalsarai Son nagar section of EDFC gets operational this october.

slide_43.jpg
 
There is often an indirect job multiplier that varies.

You are correct.

There will be downstream local suppliers for almost every component such as flex circuit boards, housings etc. and onward to more critical components as indigenisation grows more sophisticated. These OEM suppliers will employ more people in R&D as well as manufacturing roles.

Of course Gorilla Glass and Qualcomm chips will be the last to get indigenized.
 
You are correct.

There will be downstream local suppliers for almost every component such as flex circuit boards, housings etc. and onward to more critical components as indigenisation grows more sophisticated. These OEM suppliers will employ more people in R&D as well as manufacturing roles.

Of course Gorilla Glass and Qualcomm chips will be the last to get indigenized.

as far as gorilla glass is concerned we have an alternative in Asahi India Glass co.

@PARIKRAMA
 

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