AugenBlick
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10% will be optimal but hard to achieve.. With GST and a bit favorable international climate including depressed oil prices, we can reach 8.5 to 9 easy
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Yes This Brain Fart is Predicted By Every Major Economic Organisation around the World IMF ,World Bank,CIAAnother Indian brain fart. India is hardly growing at 7% and they dream of 10%
As far as I know, India is only going and seeming to go near goal, so not a propaganda.such a prediction is nothing but propaganda.
If you will research, you'll come to know that Government is building 18000km more highways and a dense high speed network to connect the nation for easy flow of money.India does not need to grow at 10% to reach 10 trillion mark. It can be achieved even with 7% groth which is more sustainable anyway. Rupee appreciation (in nominal terms) may even expedite the process before 2032. I think 10% growth days are truly over for any middle to major economy, advances in 3D printing will lead to more localised manufacturing in the built up world and will have an impact on India becoming a manufacturing hub,thus, would be even harder to achieve 10% growth for prolonged period. From now onwards, export oriented economies such as Korea, Japan and Taiwan will grow at meager rates. Chinese have already figured it out during GFC that this manufacturing binge is not sustainable, and have taken steps to drive towards consumption based growth.
If you will research, you'll come to know that Government is building 18000km more highways and a dense high speed network to connect the nation for easy flow of money.
There are several economic corridors being planned and 98 Developed cities to pull backward states near richer states.
Current 5 years plan is from Congress. Next five year plan (2017-22) is going to decide who's correct. Your satisfaction or my optimism.
Arun Jaitely has already said that 11% is even feasible.
If not 10%, India will grow much faster after a huge skilled(30-40% target by 22) labour force, 60 crore internet users (today 47 crore), and 98 economic cities,
2017-22 will be era of construction of India.
This isn't a joke man, a country like India must grow much faster than 7.5%.
Today, we have an IT centred, and service based economy. Onve we get skilled people in metallurgy and electronics, our tech will also get enough room for civilian and military platforms.
But the major boom will be after 2022, with all of plans implemented.
1. 400-500 million skilled labour force.
2. High speed and probably even bullet if completed by then, train systems.
3. 20 Metro systems.
4. 19-20000 km highway connecting different States (means reducing gap between Punjab and Bihar).
5. 70-80 crore internet users.
6. A population of 140 crore.
7. An HDI of around 0.700, poverty ratio around 7-8% and literacy rate 80-85%.
8. A middle income economy with GDP per capita around $3000-3200 in nominal and $10000+ in PPP
9. Government has target to produce lakhs of industrialists by Start Up India, Stand Up India plan.
10. 2-5 Chilp Fabrication Plants (FABs) to produce electronics locally.
11. Less than 15% open defecations.(Must complete this target, it's a huge shame to our country).
12. A 4.5-5 trillion nominal economy, almost of size of UK, Japan and Germany and 14-1 5 trillions in PPP around 55-60% of US Economy at that time if current growth goes on.
13. Bringing a dozen Indian institutions into top 100 of world.
These are some projections of current growth and targets decided by government.
Though population growth will slow down significantly so we'll need higher GDP per capita growth to maintain growth.
In fact, structure of our economy was never made to do what we want. That's problem of manufacturing and technical advancement.
It we can file 3400+ USTPO patents in such conditions, think where our IQ and technological knowhow can go in a competitive environment?
5 year plan 2017-22 can reshape our economy.
Please contribute, pay your taxes on time, if getting any poor, help them and try to get in contact with government plans, if you're an NRI, try to come back and work for India (my uncle and cousin moved business here. ), if you've significant amount of money and wanna do business, don't hesitate in taking loan for doing it better, India needs business man badly.
It not only gonna benefit you, it will make lives of those $1.3 billion people easier.
Regards
Did you read my post? Or know about next five years plan.I totally agree with your sentiment for a country like India 7.5% growth is not acceptable, although more than 10% growth is possible, however, not for prolonged period of time. It is also due to the size of Indian economy, pretty tough to grow 10% year after year when you are 2 trillion economy. I know some people in Macquarie Group, who have first hand knowledge of Chinese infrastructure development, they have spent money like there is no tomorrow over there, you may have heard about ghost cities/malls in inland Chinese cities. And even spending these humongous amounts, their growth rate stayed pretty close to 10%. Yanks spent billions in 50s-60s on infrastructure development and reaped the rewards in 70s-80s. India is no way spending the amount of money on infrastructure to my liking, feel free to correct me if that is not the case. Indian population gonna start plateauing around 2030 and it may even start to decline post 2045, and it'll increase overall per capita income.
One aspect I'm really bullish about is the startup scene in India, it is going through the roof at the moment. Most of startups at moment are low IP ones such as justdial, flipkart, zomato etc., however, high IP ones are not far away, especially opening up of defence sector will certainly catch entrepreneurs eye, most likely in army combat vehicles and satellite making space. Few of my mates have actually moved back to India for good, and I'm planning to do the same, trying to convince better half atm and she is not very keen on this.