Indian Economy-News & Updates
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Nilgiri
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Singapore is another one that punches a lot above its weight.
These countries have very strong financial sectors related to trade for their larger economic regions (Europe for Netherlands and S.E.A for Singapore). The numbers will not be so big for them if we talk only about Greenfield investments (capex). Most concerns opex of existing investments and also various financial related FDI instruments.
Hence huge numbers of trade and investment banks are located there, so often the money circuits through them from other sources of the world, but it gets counted as originating from the most recent country to "handle" the money so to speak.
This is also sort of related to why India has traditionally also gotten a lot of "FDI" from Mauritius....the money actually is circuiting....often from India itself (known colloquially as "round tripping"). The most famous case of this was w.r.t China in the 90s to mid 2000s (and even to this day to some level) via Hong Kong.
It is very useful for inflating capitalization of say energy and resource firms (and also often banks themselves) so they can gain more easy credit to expand and also hedge a lot easier on world markets especially when you want to grow. The legal side of this means a govt has to be on board for it to happen in any significant way.
However when it is used to launder black money (as is often the case with the India - Mauritius - India route), it has a very negative effect on the economy of India in that case and hence the clamp down on black money routes in recent years by India.
The money that arrives and departs from Singapore and Netherlands however is quite clean overall, their regulatory mechanisms are quite good in this regard (from what I have seen and experienced) since they have strong functioning economies on their own that cannot suffer unneeded negative pressure and bubbles etc.
Maybe @Penguin can shed some light on Netherland's in this aspect (huge economic presence in trade and investment). They have historically always been immense traders and bankers so this has just continued into the present day.
It is to be noted that Netherlands got 30 billion USD in FDI in 2014 but gave out 40 billion in FDI. I would be surprised if the figures for this year for either Netherlands or Singapore would have a huge disparity between what comes in and what goes out w.r.t FDI....since both are very highly developed already so there is not as much scope for internal absorption compared to say a large developing country like India.
Penguin
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Nilgiri
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UNCTAD data is verified by RBI data:
FDI quality improves substantially with PM Narendra Modi's Make in India push
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...s-make-in-india-push/articleshow/50764021.cms
MUMBAI: The quality of foreign direct investment (FDI) coming into the country has improved substantially, according to Reserve Bank of India data.
Much of this FDI materialised in the September 2014November 2015 period after Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the Make in India campaign and bettered portfolio inflows during the preceding 15 months.
Gross FDI inflows amounted to $62.6 billion, 31% higher than $47.6 billion in the preceding 15 months.
This is more than triple the amount of net portfolio inflows of $14.3 billion in the same period. An analysis of the monthly trend in foreign investment inflows shows that in most months stable longterm FDI has been more than portfolio inflows, which have been more volatile in the period.
Economists say the surge in FDI is largely due to several initiatives by the government to attract investment in the manufacturing sector. "FDI and portfolio flows over the past yearandahalf suggest that conscious efforts of the government to encourage more stable direct investments are yielding results," said Saugata Bhattacharya, chief economist at Axis Bank. "At a time when global capital markets have become volatile, FDI flows reduce uncertainty about foreign capital outflows and, consequently, currency volatility."
The surge in FDI in India is significant given that investment across the world has fallen by 16%, said Amitabh Kant, secretary at the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, at a recent event.
Though a sizeable amount is estimated to have gone to the manufacturing sector, including consumer goods and food processing, among others, a section of the market feels that a portion of the FDI inflows could have come through the private equity route.
This seldom finds its way into greenfield projects but at the same time provide an important source of finance for entrepreneurs.
"A significant part of the higher FDI has come in as PE and VC funding, which helps finance entrepreneurs," said Bhattacharya.
Prime Minister Modi's Make in India initiative is aimed at turning the country into a global manufacturing hub to generate jobs, raise incomes and drive growth.
The government has been seeking to drum up investment as part of this effort. India's growth is being driven by public spending and consumption with private investment yet to kick in substantially.
FDI quality improves substantially with PM Narendra Modi's Make in India push
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...s-make-in-india-push/articleshow/50764021.cms
MUMBAI: The quality of foreign direct investment (FDI) coming into the country has improved substantially, according to Reserve Bank of India data.
Much of this FDI materialised in the September 2014November 2015 period after Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the Make in India campaign and bettered portfolio inflows during the preceding 15 months.
Gross FDI inflows amounted to $62.6 billion, 31% higher than $47.6 billion in the preceding 15 months.
This is more than triple the amount of net portfolio inflows of $14.3 billion in the same period. An analysis of the monthly trend in foreign investment inflows shows that in most months stable longterm FDI has been more than portfolio inflows, which have been more volatile in the period.
Economists say the surge in FDI is largely due to several initiatives by the government to attract investment in the manufacturing sector. "FDI and portfolio flows over the past yearandahalf suggest that conscious efforts of the government to encourage more stable direct investments are yielding results," said Saugata Bhattacharya, chief economist at Axis Bank. "At a time when global capital markets have become volatile, FDI flows reduce uncertainty about foreign capital outflows and, consequently, currency volatility."
The surge in FDI in India is significant given that investment across the world has fallen by 16%, said Amitabh Kant, secretary at the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, at a recent event.
Though a sizeable amount is estimated to have gone to the manufacturing sector, including consumer goods and food processing, among others, a section of the market feels that a portion of the FDI inflows could have come through the private equity route.
This seldom finds its way into greenfield projects but at the same time provide an important source of finance for entrepreneurs.
"A significant part of the higher FDI has come in as PE and VC funding, which helps finance entrepreneurs," said Bhattacharya.
Prime Minister Modi's Make in India initiative is aimed at turning the country into a global manufacturing hub to generate jobs, raise incomes and drive growth.
The government has been seeking to drum up investment as part of this effort. India's growth is being driven by public spending and consumption with private investment yet to kick in substantially.
Nilgiri
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http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...tput-fm-arun-jaitley/articleshow/50774663.cms
India may clock 8% growth even this fiscal if rural demand rises along with factory output: FM Arun Jaitley
KOLKATA: Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Friday said that India could achieve 8% growth even this fiscal if rural demand can be raised along with factory output even as he criticised the Opposition for stalling the reform agenda of the government.
"7-7.5% growth is below our potential... 8% growth is plausible even this year," Jaitley said in Kolkata. "We have to maintain our momentum of growth. Those who play games in Parliament need to understand that they are stalling growth," he said in a veiled attack on Congress.
The Narendra Modi government has cleared hurdles for freeer entry of foreign capital in India while the initiatives like Make in India aims at turning the country into a global manufacturing hub to generate jobs and drive growth. But the state of political affairs has slowed down implementation of GST and land reform.
"The world refers India as the bright spot.. But within the country there are legitimate concerns," he said. The country is facing lower rural demand weighed by three years of bad monsoon, while the manufacturing output is yet to pick up fully while the overstressed private sector is holding back investment.
If the trend related to these sectors can be reversed a bit, the FM said that economy can look forward to higher growth than the projected 7.4-7.5% in FY16.
The finance minister's assertion on growth may assure many, who have turned cautious ever since China started slowing down, impacting the global growth prospects. International Monetary Fund has revised the global growth forecast to 3.4% from 3.6%.
"What happens in China does not affect the supply chain in India and therefore, we are less impacted than other economies," the FM said in the first Suresh Neotia Memorial lecture organised by CII and Suresh Neotia Centre of Excellence for Leadership.
Jaitley said India has been driven on the strengths of increased public spending, increased foreign investment and higher urban demand.
The government has raised spending on infrastructure, rural roads and irrigation and these areas could continue to attract large budgetary support in the coming budget. "Investment in these sectors gives quick return," the FM said.
The FM said the fall in crude has helped the Narendra Modi government increase spending on social infrastructure. which in turn, contributes to growth. But he lamented the state of disruptive politics in India.
"The world's largest democracy cant function unless it has high quality of politics. Evolution of Indian Politics needs to take place," he said, referring to the bane of castebased politics and the prevalent system of political dynasty.
India may clock 8% growth even this fiscal if rural demand rises along with factory output: FM Arun Jaitley
KOLKATA: Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Friday said that India could achieve 8% growth even this fiscal if rural demand can be raised along with factory output even as he criticised the Opposition for stalling the reform agenda of the government.
"7-7.5% growth is below our potential... 8% growth is plausible even this year," Jaitley said in Kolkata. "We have to maintain our momentum of growth. Those who play games in Parliament need to understand that they are stalling growth," he said in a veiled attack on Congress.
The Narendra Modi government has cleared hurdles for freeer entry of foreign capital in India while the initiatives like Make in India aims at turning the country into a global manufacturing hub to generate jobs and drive growth. But the state of political affairs has slowed down implementation of GST and land reform.
"The world refers India as the bright spot.. But within the country there are legitimate concerns," he said. The country is facing lower rural demand weighed by three years of bad monsoon, while the manufacturing output is yet to pick up fully while the overstressed private sector is holding back investment.
If the trend related to these sectors can be reversed a bit, the FM said that economy can look forward to higher growth than the projected 7.4-7.5% in FY16.
The finance minister's assertion on growth may assure many, who have turned cautious ever since China started slowing down, impacting the global growth prospects. International Monetary Fund has revised the global growth forecast to 3.4% from 3.6%.
"What happens in China does not affect the supply chain in India and therefore, we are less impacted than other economies," the FM said in the first Suresh Neotia Memorial lecture organised by CII and Suresh Neotia Centre of Excellence for Leadership.
Jaitley said India has been driven on the strengths of increased public spending, increased foreign investment and higher urban demand.
The government has raised spending on infrastructure, rural roads and irrigation and these areas could continue to attract large budgetary support in the coming budget. "Investment in these sectors gives quick return," the FM said.
The FM said the fall in crude has helped the Narendra Modi government increase spending on social infrastructure. which in turn, contributes to growth. But he lamented the state of disruptive politics in India.
"The world's largest democracy cant function unless it has high quality of politics. Evolution of Indian Politics needs to take place," he said, referring to the bane of castebased politics and the prevalent system of political dynasty.
Nilgiri
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Indian Q4 (Q3 by fiscal) growth data will be released on February 8th. There will probably be a downward revision of a few base % points from the current 7.5% prediction as more better quality CSO base data from the 2012/13 reference series comes online according to most economists I have read/watched.
What is more important is not sheer growth data and numbers....but actual employment figures in the conceptually good programs (skilling, MSME clusters, MUDRA) through their actual implementation long term. More sustainable and better quality growth will arise from that long term.
Apparently there are only about 500,000 good "formal" jobs being generated every year for an intake of 8 million of the labour force. That % needs to drastically increase, THAT will be the single most important result for Modi administration in this term of govt....not what a SNA 2008 method of GDP growth figure states.
I am very happy that RBI governor Rajan has mentioned this plenty of times to Modi govt (employment issue) already....it puts well directed pressure on the govt to do all it can to ensure this long term problem is addressed.
Thus achieving the balance between short term stabilizing of the ship and setting it in the right direction long term will be the most important thing for this year.
@Dungeness @dadeechi
What is more important is not sheer growth data and numbers....but actual employment figures in the conceptually good programs (skilling, MSME clusters, MUDRA) through their actual implementation long term. More sustainable and better quality growth will arise from that long term.
Apparently there are only about 500,000 good "formal" jobs being generated every year for an intake of 8 million of the labour force. That % needs to drastically increase, THAT will be the single most important result for Modi administration in this term of govt....not what a SNA 2008 method of GDP growth figure states.
I am very happy that RBI governor Rajan has mentioned this plenty of times to Modi govt (employment issue) already....it puts well directed pressure on the govt to do all it can to ensure this long term problem is addressed.
Thus achieving the balance between short term stabilizing of the ship and setting it in the right direction long term will be the most important thing for this year.
@Dungeness @dadeechi
Dungeness
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That is a very big "IF" . It is just like saying "If you have money to buy food, I promise you won't be hungry". I am not sure what is the point of this FM, who keeps surpassing his predictions with lots of "ifs and buts". He is more like a big mouth politician than a realistic economist. I would put my money on RBI chief. By the way, India has just revised down the GDP growth numbers for 2013-2014, and 2014-2015.
80-90% of Indian employment are in "informal" sectors, meaning "day laborer", so I am not sure what the 500 K "formal" jobs means to hundreds of million Indians in working age. In compression, China created 13 million new jobs, which can be categorized as "formal jobs" in India's terms. http://www.afr.com/news/world/china...015-in-effort-to-calm-markets-20160112-gm41nk
Nilgiri
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A lot better than previous FMs. Besides an FM is just part of a team. Its those team members that mean a lot more than the FM in making and implementing actionable policies, who is just the media figurehead like you mention....which is also btw a very important role. After all he is strongly responsible for conducting many negotiations and talks with major foreign investors. It is through a lot of what he has done that FDI has increased by nearly 30 billion USD in one year.
If you choose to see only one side of him, that is on you. But don't expect such views to be allowed to go unchallenged. Have you read any of what FM Jaitley has done regarding tax and bankruptcy reform? His lawyer background was instrumental in convincing both foreign and local private conglomerates that the bad precedent set by the previous administration regarding things such as retrospective taxation is a thing of the past....and he is thorough in explaining the details why. This is just one example.
I am not biggest fan of other things he has done/not done....but overall he is a solid performer relatively speaking. Scores around 5 out of 10 from me...maybe 6.
Same RBI chief that said he never doubted the new GDP numbers after you rushed to imply he did in the other thread.
But yes he is a pragmatic chap, there is mutual respect between the Finance Ministry and him in many areas. In fact one interview with him and the main economic adviser of the govt (they both worked together on various papers and international projects before) was quite revealing as to just how close and integrated many of the policy decisions and conceptualisations are made between the two sides.
This was always expected since last year. Even govt CEA and also many CSO officials and govt. economists have been saying so for some time now given what they already knew about some of the CSO data that will now be activated in the time series and what timeframe this data came from in context of Indian economy.
Overall the drop for 2014-2015 was from 7.3% to 7.2% which is actually way less than I thought....it shows the growth that year was actually more robust than I imagined.
The drop for 2013-2104 from 6.9% to 6.6% is similarly also somewhat less than I thought it would be.
http://www.firstpost.com/business/gdp-growth-for-2014-15-marginally-revised-down-to-7-2-2604190.html
Both are no real concern to the new GDP method conceptually...which will now continue and be better qualitatively than before and gain more improvements over time as well.
Gross capital formation after all is still quite healthy at around 36% of GDP at constant prices. There is room for this to increase in coming years I feel however.
Yah this is completely the issue with India for sure. But what is promising is that job creation in formal sector doubled from the year previous. It goes to show just how even worse it was in the last administration....where it had stagnated at around 200k per annum (I kid you not) and was even dropping lower than that some years. They focused on giving subsidies and govt welfare job programs to mitigate this policy disaster rather than trying to fix it from the source. It will take a few terms of the kind of govt we have now to reverse this completely and massively increase "formal" jobs. There is not one major difference between the RBI governor and govt regarding this (there was a huge difference before if you look at what he said about the previous administration soon after he was appointed - though it was not covered by the media).
The ITI's that have sprung up in the last year or so soon also project to skill and train the labour force to the tune of multiple millions a year by just a couple years from now or so....so that job creation will be at these levels too and then more and more. It has always been an issue of labour supply....there is good demand from companies for skilled labour...they have always complained they cannot expand well because there is shortage of such employable talent to be had.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...december-2014-survey/articleshow/47534655.cms
http://www.hindustantimes.com/educa...zzying-pace/story-7ZHcrnddB47mqiAZRUovYO.html
It will actually be more apt to compare with Chinese job creation data in the 80s and early 90s (if such is available to see how it grew from before and during the economic "renaissance"), that is the stage (w.r.t labour intensive but skilled jobs) that India is just approaching now....rather than the drive to maturity stage numbers that China is in now....that is already increasingly driven more by frictional unemployment + higher value skilling rather than gross skill deficit/underemployment given China's demography and access to economic margins created by the last couple decades of growth.
Thats why for example India is now entering a stage (finally) where such formal job creation will be doubling, tripling etc. each year, whereas China is simply seeking to keep the numbers as high as it can and hope enough of the next economic level jobs are increasing within that overall number etc...
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Dungeness
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The point is, as the FM, doesn't his view represent the consensus his team, on that matter, represent Indian government policy on economics? Or he is just saying it on personal capacity or just to entertain media? If I were a potential investor eyeing a foreign market, I would feel very uneasy to hear lots of "ifs or buts" from the head of financial department of that country. He has thrown out a lot of GDP growth predictions since he took his current FM position.
I noticed that too yesterday. I don't know how he can get away with that. Shouldn't a government official be held accountable for what he said? He would be ridiculed by the whole country if the head of China's Reserve Bank flip-flop like he did.
That is nice to know that India is making progress in "formal" job creation. Hundred of maters and phDs fighting over a cleaner position in government maybe an extreme case, but India has so many new university graduates every year, it needs a lot more serious jobs.
Just curious, people who work in a company less than 100 employees, are considered in formal sector or informal sector? I have always wondering how you calculate the unemployment rate, if 80-90% work force are in "informal sectors".
Nilgiri
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Crux of the issue is you are seeing what you want to see with him (Don't worry many Indians do the same on both sides: admirers and haters). With this "if" its nothing related to policy related to investors and reforms....he is simply saying there is scope for more growth above the minimum that has been predicted if things are more favourable. He is not staking massive amounts of political or development related capital on it.
Various predictions were made before the global scenario worsened and India's own credit crunch has taken longer than anticipated to bottom out + the political logjam of certain top tier reforms.
I prefer on the other hand to look at the actual policies he has pushed/ignored and the work he has organised w.r.t key issues: fiscal deficit, tax reform, investor sentiment. The other long term things will take time to be operationalised, so in mean time it can only be achieving the highest growth possible with what we got...with maximum transfer to those less well off and as little negative impact overall as possible.
Its not a flip flop. Again you read into what he said in a skewed way. He was talking with some Economics students about general theoretical problems with measuring GDP (in any method)....that they must be aware it is an estimate because of what it can never capture (with the data acquisition methods available today). He simply clarified what he meant, after some quarters over reacted to it.
More than university graduates, we also need to improve the quantity and quality of colleges and especially vocational institutes and training...that is the goal behind the ITI expansion and "skilling" India. Its quite an ambitious program....aiming to skill 400 million workers by 2022. The nature,level and impact of this program has just commenced and we can only judge it in the years to come...but a promising start from the figures so far. But they need to accelerate so thats what I have my fingers crossed for...more than any GDP growth figure etc.
There are many definitions that overlap by size. Some go down all the way to 10 workers "officially". As far as I know if its a registered company that has a tax portfolio, its organised....vice versa its informal "unorganised"....and the tax imprint may be only through income tax of its workers if any. For all intents and purposes, the official definition lies at 10 workers IIRC, not 100....below which its "informal" sector in all official definitions.
Unemployment rate is calculated through surveys at various levels (economic units as they are known by CSO and others). Basically questions of the nature "are you currently actively seeking employment" etc. This is quite standard worldwide...and there is no bias by formal or informal economic spheres since it is at its basis almost a personal worker interpretation of his/her situation w.r.t willingness/ability to work.
Different levels of unemployment then stem from the details of the survey regarding how long out of work, nature of unemployment etc depending on what data you are after....and from that you can gain long term "natural" unemployment rate of the economy + short term/seasonal/frictional unemployment...along with underemployment and other such things. Of course they are all estimates in essence since they come from surveys, but thats true for anything related to macroeconomics.
Nilgiri
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Lets hope for strong consolidation and plugging the weaknesses in 2016.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...igh-on-strong-demand/articleshow/50802327.cms
Make in India effect: Manufacturing PMI at a 4month high on strong demand
NEW DELHI: Manufacturing cheer returned to India in the beginning of 2016 with manufacturing sector climbing back into expansion territory in January as the industry recovered following the contraction seen at the end of last year.
At 51.1 in January, up from 49.1 in December, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) moved back above the 50 mark denoting expansion.
Data released on Monday showed that levels of production and total new business registered mild increases following contractions in the prior survey month. The consumer goods sub sector remained the principal growth engine at the start of the year, seeing substantial expansions of both output and new orders. In contrast, producers of investment goods saw output and new orders fall, while production volumes stagnated in the intermediate goods category.
Moreover, the levels of incoming new export business has now risen in each of the past 28 months.
Though there was mild job creation in the month, the survey noted that this increase in employment was insufficient to reduce the pressure on manufacturers' capacity.
"The opening month of 2016 saw a rebound in new business from both domestic and external clients leading manufacturers in India to scale up output following a shortlived downturn recorded in December. Whereas the trends in the growth rates are relatively weak in comparison with the longrun series averages, January's PMI data paint a brighter picture of the Indian economy, " said Pollyanna De Lima, economist at Markit, the agency that compiles the index.
In its outlook, the survey indicated an unchanged repo rate at 6.75% by the Reserve Bank of India in its policy review on Tuesday even though the central bank is likely to continue its monetary policy loosening cycle in 2016.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...igh-on-strong-demand/articleshow/50802327.cms
Make in India effect: Manufacturing PMI at a 4month high on strong demand
NEW DELHI: Manufacturing cheer returned to India in the beginning of 2016 with manufacturing sector climbing back into expansion territory in January as the industry recovered following the contraction seen at the end of last year.
At 51.1 in January, up from 49.1 in December, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) moved back above the 50 mark denoting expansion.
Data released on Monday showed that levels of production and total new business registered mild increases following contractions in the prior survey month. The consumer goods sub sector remained the principal growth engine at the start of the year, seeing substantial expansions of both output and new orders. In contrast, producers of investment goods saw output and new orders fall, while production volumes stagnated in the intermediate goods category.
Moreover, the levels of incoming new export business has now risen in each of the past 28 months.
Though there was mild job creation in the month, the survey noted that this increase in employment was insufficient to reduce the pressure on manufacturers' capacity.
"The opening month of 2016 saw a rebound in new business from both domestic and external clients leading manufacturers in India to scale up output following a shortlived downturn recorded in December. Whereas the trends in the growth rates are relatively weak in comparison with the longrun series averages, January's PMI data paint a brighter picture of the Indian economy, " said Pollyanna De Lima, economist at Markit, the agency that compiles the index.
In its outlook, the survey indicated an unchanged repo rate at 6.75% by the Reserve Bank of India in its policy review on Tuesday even though the central bank is likely to continue its monetary policy loosening cycle in 2016.
Nilgiri
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http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...ndustry-growth-story/articleshow/50830265.cms
India chapter set to overtake global auto industry growth story
India chapter set to overtake global auto industry growth story
Nilgiri
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January services PMI at 19-month high of 54.3
Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
ranjeet
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Hyundai plans to make India mfg hub for global mini SUV
“The investment planned for the project is around Rs 700 crore. The new vehicle should hit the ground within three years,“
http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/...lans-to-make-India-mfg-hub-for-03022016023029
“The investment planned for the project is around Rs 700 crore. The new vehicle should hit the ground within three years,“
http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/...lans-to-make-India-mfg-hub-for-03022016023029
IndoCarib
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India has overtaken the US to become the world’s second-largest smartphone market
http://qz.com/#608005/india-has-ove...-the-worlds-second-largest-smartphone-market/
http://qz.com/#608005/india-has-ove...-the-worlds-second-largest-smartphone-market/
