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Rising food prices to hit rural India in 2016 - The Times of India

India's villages face a sharp spike in food prices in 2016, as a second year of drought drives up the cost of ingredients such as sugar and milk, and poor transport infrastructure stops falling global prices from reaching rural areas.

India's first back-to-back drought in three decades also complicates government spending calculations as Prime Minister Narendra Modi tries to prune a subsidy regime that has long propped up the rural economy, and he can ill afford to alienate rural voters after a bruising weekend electoral defeat in Bihar.

READ ALSO: Why dal prices have doubled: Here's the math

It is bad news for the central bank, too, which faces a conundrum achieving its 4 percent inflation target for the medium term as levels diverge in town and country, and infrastructure development would take years to fix it.

India's overall retail inflation eased to 4.41 per cent in September, helped by falling commodity prices, but rural inflation was at 5.05 percent, mostly due to food prices. That, some analysts argue, could worsen, despite the dampening effect of lower wages and sluggish growth in the agricultural sector.

READ ALSO: Concerned over high food prices, especially of dal, says Jayant Sinha

"The impact of this year's drought will cut supplies of sugar, milk and vegetables, which the market hasn't factored in yet fully," said Harish Galipelli, head of commodities and currencies at Inditrade Derivatives and Commodities.

"The first half (of next year) will be more painful than the second half."

While urban dwellers have seen some cheaper imported food products, benefiting from global deflation, that has not filtered through to rural areas, given poor roads, rail and a lack of storage facilities for perishable goods.

READ ALSO: Congress targets Modi government over price rise on World Food Day

Prices of vegetables like onions, tomatoes and potatoes have already been rising, with some staples up as much as 20 percent in a month. Palm oil prices have also climbed in the last two months, while milk prices have risen by 10 per cent.

India will release monthly retail inflation data for October on November 12.

Faltering rural economy

There is little sign of relief.

Indian sugar futures are up by a quarter since a late July low, and producers say lower output because of the drought will push them up further in 2016.

Edible oil prices in India, which meets nearly 70 per cent of demand through imports, are also likely to rise, given scant rainfall in palm oil-producing countries.

Meanwhile, scarcity of fodder and water is expected to hit local milk production from February.

READ ALSO: Food delivery startups feel the heat

"The country's milk production could drop by 5 to 7 per cent in 2016. The reduction will obviously allow prices to rise," an official with the Maharashtra state milk cooperative said.

Food accounts for more than 50 per cent of rural consumer price inflation in India, compared with a third of urban inflation, while categories like fuel, which has seen a considerable price drop, has a much smaller impact in rural areas, where families use firewood or biogas from manure.

The rural economy contributes around 50 per cent of Indian gross domestic product and is already showing signs of strain as government cuts the once-generous subsidies that shielded farmers and villagers. Motorbike and tractor sales were weak in October, traditionally an auspicious time to buy.

Two-wheeler sales rose just 0.36 percent in April-October compared with 16.4 percent growth in the same period a year ago.

"My income dropped nearly 50 percent due to drought," said farmer Sunil Gujar, 42, from the interior of Maharashtra.

"I had borrowed money from a bank for seeds and fertilizer, but now I don't know how to repay the loan."

To ab kya kare...reservations to hain hi.

Free mein food bhi de do

TMC SP JDU RJD JAYLALITHA cong will surely support
 
Still don't have faith on the Indian populace to choose what is right for them...

Im not negative here.
I support n believe him as much as you do.

NDA urban and middle class support will not erode.

He has to think of increasing beyond 30% voting percentage and thats y villages and rural areas are important.

I suggested it as a strategy. Pls note...CONg and all other dogs will try to create shining India like situation of 2004...

He will win and survive only if he also wins rural parts of countries.

I recommend he focus om populist measures to all farmers for next 3 years..

Winning hearts is very important now for next 3 years. Similar win in 2019 will show writing on the wall for CONg and other dogs including media and LW
 
Im not negative here.
I support n believe him as much as you do.

NDA urban and middle class support will not erode.

He has to think of increasing beyond 30% voting percentage and thats y villages and rural areas are important.

I suggested it as a strategy. Pls note...CONg and all other dogs will try to create shining India like situation of 2004...

He will win and survive only if he also wins rural parts of countries.

I recommend he focus om populist measures to all farmers for next 3 years..

Winning hearts is very important now for next 3 years. Similar win in 2019 will show writing on the wall for CONg and other dogs including media and LW

Drought is not working in out favor , its severe this time and media is not even bothered to cover it...
 
Good news. FDI norms eased in 15 business sectors. FIPB approval limit increased to 5000 crores from previous 3000 crores.

Should have done last year but good start nonetheless
And despite that FDI jumped significantly this past year, the next few years should be good on that front...

Haha, how often do you see any politician (anywhere in the world) able to claim such a thing. If true, this is exceptional.
 
Any credible breakdown of this figure? £9BN is a pretty significant figure but I can't seem to understand what this translates to.

+ What is nuclear agreement suggested in the article? The UK has no sovereign nuclear reactors anymore so I can't see it relating to the transfer of reactor designs or British nuclear power plants for India.

Some investment by YES bank can't find the details about it .. but few of them are here

Trade deals, protests mark UK visit by India's Modi| Reuters


"Late on Thursday, the British government said six deals had been agreed, including a 1.3 billion pound ($1.98 billion) investment by Vodafone.

The two prime ministers also welcomed a package to promote clean energy worth 3.2 billion pounds of commercial agreements, joint research programmes and initiatives to share technical, scientific, and financial and policy expertise."
 
"Late on Thursday, the British government said six deals had been agreed, including a 1.3 billion pound ($1.98 billion) investment by Vodafone.
This alone is quite a significant signal even if the deal is, on a macro level, rather minor. Vodafone was at the forefront of the counter-productive taxation policies the UPA-2 had tried to implement that had done HUGE damage to India's image in the investor community. The fact that Vodofone are now pumping in their own capital back into India is an incredibly positive signal and does show that the NDA is successfully making India a more attractive place to invest.

The GoI deserves quite a bit of credit for what they have managed to achieve in a short span os time especially considering that I had seen a remark by one investment analyst calling the investment environment in India "toxic" back in 2013.


The two prime ministers also welcomed a package to promote clean energy worth 3.2 billion pounds of commercial agreements, joint research programmes and initiatives to share technical, scientific, and financial and policy expertise."
£3.2 bllion is not chump change at all, and yet the subsequent wording is incredibly wishy washy. There is clearly something big here (a megaproject or two) but the details are not apparent right now.
 

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