Exports fall, gold imports surge, trade deficit widens in October: Key takeaways
India's trade deficit widened to $13.35 billion in October as exports contracted 5.04 percent and gold imports surged, the government data showed yesterday. In the year-ago period, the deficit stood at $10.59 billion.
Gold imports jumped 280 percent to $4.17 billion in the month, widening the trade deficit to $13.35 billion as against $10.59 billion in October last year.
Top exporting sectors that registered negative growth in October are engineering (-9.18 percent), pharma (-8.33 percent), gems and jewellery (-2.25 percent) and petroleum products (-0.16 percent).
Overall, imports grew by 3.62 percent to $39.45 billion.
Oil imports in October dipped by 19.2 per cent to $12.36 billion. Non-oil imports, however, grew by 18.9 percent to $27.08 billion.
During April-October period, exports were up 4.72 percent to $189.79 billion, while imports were up 1.86 percent to $273.55 billion. Trade deficit during the period stood at $83.75 billion against $87.31 billion in the same period last fiscal.
Here are the key takeaways from the data:
1) When it comes to gold, Chidu is the way to go: There is no respite from gold imports, which have been rising over the last three months. In October, the imports jumped to 106.3 tonnes, which is the highest monthly imports this fiscal year, from 26 tonnes a year ago. While the demand for the yellow metal may moderate after the festival season, there is no reason to believe that it will fall significantly as lower global prices will retain the attractiveness. Rating agency Crisil estimates that gold imports this financial year are likely to hit 800 tonnes, much higher than 653.5 tonnes last fiscal.
According to a PTI report, this has prompted the government to take a relook at shipment norms for the precious metal. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is in discussions with the government on ways to curb gold imports, the report said quoting RBI Deputy Governor S S Mundra said here. Faced with a scary CAD situation, former finance minister P Chidambaram had also resorted to similar steps. In a desperate bid to contain the surging imports, the UPA government had raised import duty on gold to 10 percent. It also made it mandatory to export 20 percent of all gold imports as jewellery. Then there were criticisms that the steps were just short cuts and are likely to back fire. However, expect more of such import curbs now. In other words, the new government does not yet have a new game plan when it comes to gold. Chidambaram is the way to go.
2) No hope from overseas: After six long months, exports fell into the negative zone. This should sound alarm bells. According to PTI, exporters have attributed the fall in outbound shipments in October to subdued demand in the US and European markets. The pain will only get worse, Japan with falling into a recession. There is nothing much the new government can do here.
3) Recovery? Yes and no: In a trade data, import figures hold special significance. This is because imports of non-oil and non-gold goods are an indication of domestic demand. This figure in October has risen by 5.6% on year, offering hope that there is a small revival in domestic demand. According to Crisil, this is the sixth consecutive month of expansion. But it is too early to rejoice. As Crisil notes, "Sustained growth in core imports in the past few months confirms that a nascent recovery in domestic demand has begun. However, the numbers are still too weak to provide a relief." Even the corporate earnings indicate so.