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Rupee measures fail to cheer market
Rupee measures fail to cheer market | Reuters
Mon Jun 25, 2012 7:08pm IST

(Reuters) - India announced steps on Monday to bolster the embattled rupee, including a $5 billion increase in the foreign investment cap in government bonds, but disappointed markets hoping for bolder action to prop up a currency that hit a record low on Friday.

After the central bank raised the bond limit to $20 billion and announced other relatively minor steps, the rupee trimmed gains built up earlier in the day on hopes for more aggressive moves. Stocks tumbled.

"Well, not the 'shock and awe' the market was looking for but we shall see what else gets announced. Not surprised to see dollar/rupee higher," said Jonathan Cavenagh, senior forex strategist at Westpac in Singapore.

"Until they address longer-term structural issues around capital flows and competition in the domestic retail sector which can help bring down inflation pressures, I think markets will be left disappointed," he said.

The steps were the latest by Indian policymakers trying to combat a loss of confidence in the economy, which slumped in the March quarter to its worst growth in nine years.

The rupee has hit a succession of record lows this year in a slide that began in the middle of 2011. It has fallen about 7 percent this year, making it the worst performing currency monitored daily in Asia by Reuters.

After the rupee hit another record low, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on Saturday that steps to arrest the slide would be unveiled on Monday, spurring rampant market speculation.

The comments from Mukherjee, due to step down on Tuesday so he can run for the largely ceremonial post of president, seemed to catch India's policymaking establishment off-guard.

Three finance ministry officials ordinarily in the loop on such plans said at the weekend that they were unaware of the pending measures.

At the finance ministry in New Delhi, officials rushed in and out of a meeting for more than three hours. At one point a participant said officials were themselves trying to "figure out" what to do.

"Once again, the government unnecessarily raised expectations only to disappoint," CLSA economist Rajeev Malik said in a client note.

The rupee rose as high as 56.37 per dollar before the measures were announced but ended domestic trading at 57.01/02, edging back towards Friday's record low of 57.32.

The central bank stepped into markets late in the day to support the currency.

The BSE Sensex fell 0.53 percent, having traded higher on the day before the measures were unveiled.

"India's macro imbalances cannot be fixed by a patchwork of Band-aids or by applying balm," CLSA's Malik wrote.

Policymakers have come under intense pressure to revive the fortunes of the economy, which before the global financial crisis was growing closer to 10 percent a year.

However, growth declined to a nine-year low of 5.3 percent in the March quarter. Ratings agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings are threatening to downgrade the country's credit rating to junk and foreign investors have exited as the government fumbled economic reform and raised the prospect of retroactive taxes.

ASIA LAGGARD

Economists have long said India needs to improve its economic fundamentals, including addressing its current account and fiscal deficits, to bolster the rupee.

Critics say the government needs to cut back on fuel subsidies, which are stretching the fiscal deficit and lead to wasteful demand and therefore pressure on the current account and the currency.

"I don't believe these measures will do much to improve the currency situation, because the problem plaguing the currency are the twin deficits, and that can only be addressed by cutting the fiscal deficit. And that is a much tougher job," said A. Prasanna, economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership.

Morgan Stanley estimates India's current account deficit will widen to $72 billion by the end of June, from $49 billion a year earlier. That would put the current account deficit at between 4 percent and 4.5 percent of India's GDP.

"A sustainable solution would need a reduction of the current account deficit to around 2-2.25 percent of GDP with tighter fiscal policy, acceptance of slower consumption growth, and implementation of reforms that improve the business climate to encourage FDI inflows," the bank said in a Sunday note.

Other central bank measures on Monday included relaxing restrictions on how long foreign investors have to hold some government bonds, and the opening of investment in debt securities to more types of foreign buyers, adding sovereign wealth funds, central banks, pension funds and insurers to the list of eligible buyers.

India also reduced the minimum holding period for foreign investors in some long-term infrastructure bonds to one year from three years.

The measures may not generate significant new fund inflows because investors, wary of further weakness in the rupee, would bring in dollars only on a fully hedged basis, two traders at foreign banks said. They declined to be identified.

FLIGHT TO SAFETY

Other emerging market currencies have also weakened against the dollar as investors, worried about the global economic slowdown and the euro zone crisis, fled to the perceived safety of the U.S. currency.

But India's economy also has specific problems to overcome, economists say, which has added to pressure on the rupee. The government has struggled to garner political support for change, such as opening up the domestic retail market. Inflation also remains stubbornly high, largely because of supply bottlenecks in the economy.

India needs to shore up its credibility among investors, both in sticking to its projected fiscal deficit of 5.1 percent for the fiscal year ending March 2013 and to narrow its current account deficit, analysts said.

Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings have cut their outlook on India's sovereign ratings to negative, threatening its investment-grade status, citing a slowdown in economic reforms.

However, Moody's Investors Service said on Monday it was maintaining a stable outlook for India's Baa3 rating. It said slowing growth and higher levels of inflation were already factored into the outlook.

In a shot in the arm for the economy, Sweden's IKEA, the world's largest furniture retailer, said on Friday it would invest 1.5 billion euros to open 25 stores in India.
 
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Short Term measures for Long Term problems. What a government:

Expert Views: Foreign investment limit in govt bonds raised

Expert Views: Foreign investment limit in govt bonds raised | Reuters

(Reuters) - India took a handful of measures to prop up the embattled rupee on Monday, including increasing the limit on foreign investment in government bonds by $5 billion to $20 billion, the Reserve Bank of India said.

COMMENTARY

JONATHAN CAVENAGH, SENIOR FOREX STRATEGIST, WESTPAC, SINGAPORE

"Well not the 'shock and awe' the market was looking for but we shall see what else gets announced. Not surprised to see USD/INR higher.

"Until they address longer term structural issues around capital flows and competition in the domestic retail sector which can help bring down inflation pressures, I think market will be left disappointed."

ROBERT PRIOR-WANDESFORDE, ECONOMIST, CREDIT SUISSE, SINGAPORE

"From a long-term perspective, raising the foreign investment limit in government bonds is moderately helpful not only for the currency but also for the government to finance its deficit. But it is unlikely to transform the situation.

"To make a meaningful difference to the currency, more stronger measures are required."

SURESH KUMAR RAMANATHAN, FX AND RATES STRATEGIST, CIMB, KUALA LUMPUR

"While it does not arrest the immediate pressure on the INR, the structural reforms of engaging foreign flows for a medium term investment should be seen as positive for the INR.

"The INR may have underperformed in the first 6 months of the year but it is increasingly now under an overshoot category, which will ease in coming months. Our call for a firmer INR by year end closing at 51.00 still remains intact."

M. NATARAJAN, HEAD OF TREASURY, BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA, MUMBAI

"The market was expecting a slew of measures. The measures announced now won't have any direct material bearing on the rupee. Unless the RBI comes in with more measures, the rupee will fall back to the 57-58 to a dollar levels."

A. PRASANNA, ECONOMIST, ICICI SECURITIES PRIMARY DEALERSHIP LTD, MUMBAI

"Given the kind of expectations generated, these measures are definitely underwhelming. The hike in investment limit for foreign institutional investors in government bonds is a positive, because we have seen that foreign investors have been investing in bonds earlier. And so, at the margin, it is a positive for the rupee.

"Fundamentally, I don't believe these measures will do much to improve the currency situation, because the problem plaguing the currency are the twin deficits, and that can only be addressed by cutting the fiscal deficit. And, that is a much tougher job."

RUPA REGE NITSURE, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BANK OF BARODA, MUMBAI

"These measures are okay to improve the sentiment in the short term only. These steps will help improve the depth in the government bonds market to some extent, it is a gradual step to more easing. However, investors were looking for introduction of long pending structural reforms, and unless that happens, rupee will not recover on a sustainable basis. But the positive from these measures may linger for a longer time for bonds."

SHAKTI SATAPATHY, FIXED INCOME STRATEGIST, AK CAPITAL, MUMBAI

"The measures indicate limited offerings at the government's end to restore the near-term investment sentiment in the economy. Raising the FII (foreign institutional investor) debt investment limit and ECB (external commercial borrowing) relaxation are clearly temporary measures lacking any promising determination to keep the fiscal worry under control. More of the sectoral specific reforms are needed to give the growth impetus to the economy."

PARESH NAYAR, HEAD OF FIXED INCOME AND FX, FIRST RAND BANK, MUMBAI

"Obviously the market had discounted much more than the announcement, thus markets have reacted negatively. Few of the measures on ECB and allowing SWFs (sovereign wealth funds) to invest may turn positive but such measures take time".

ABHEEK BARUA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, HDFC BANK, NEW DELHI

"These measures, if they are the complete set of measures, are tame, and disappointing compared to the market expectations. The market was expecting hefty inflows through some millennium deposit scheme, or so, but these measures alone won't do much.

"Global factors are likely to take over, and negative momentum may return and the rupee may breach 57 to a dollar and beyond. Will wait for the rest of the day, to see if more measures are coming."

RADHIKA RAO, ECONOMIST, FORECAST PTE, SINGAPORE

"Knee-jerk reaction has seen the rupee and stocks pare early gains. The changes announced are positive and will further deepen the domestic bond markets.

"Markets, however, will be disappointed due to the limited boost to fund inflows from these measures and consequently of little immediate help to the local currency."

UPASNA BHARDWAJ, ECONOMIST, ING VYSYA BANK, MUMBAI

"The measures announced may provide some relief in the near term, but more drastic measures are required by the policymakers to curb the slide in Rupee. For a more sustained stability in INR, it is imperative that the government initiates some corrective reforms on fiscal management or FDI."

SUBRAMANIAN SHARMA, DIRECTOR, GREENBACK FOREX, MUMBAI

"The bigger problem is on the supply-side for dollars. The government needs to boost capital inflows. It needs to address the GAAR (General Anti-Avoidance Rules) and retrospective taxation issues. The current measures will do little to boost sentiment. The rupee is likely to trade in a 56.60-57 band for the session."

MARKETS

- The rupee was at 56.96/97 to the dollar, weakening from 56.55 levels before the announcement. The currency was still up on the day, after closing at 57.12/13 on Friday.

- Benchmark stock indexes erased earlier mild gains to fall, with the main BSE index down 0.2 percent.

BACKGROUND

- The Indian rupee posted its worst weekly fall in nine months last week, having slumped to a record low of 57.32 against the U.S. dollar on Friday, hurt by dollar demand from oil firms and gold importers as well the broad risk-off sentiment.

- The Reserve Bank of India left interest rates unchanged last week, defying widespread expectations for a rate cut as it warned that doing so could worsen inflation, disappointing markets.

- Economy has been slowing sharply due to a combination of factors such as high borrowing costs, government inaction on key policies and sluggish global environment.

- Standard & Poor's has said that India could become the first of the so-called BRIC economies to lose its investment-grade status, less than two months after cutting its rating outlook for the country.

- Industrial output rose just 0.1 percent in April, lower than expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.7 percent increase. Output fell in March from a year earlier by 3.5 percent.

- Economic growth slowed to 5.3 percent in the March quarter, its weakest pace in nine years and sharply off 9.2 percent rise in the year-earlier period.

- Price pressures remain high with the wholesale price inflation accelerating to 7.55 percent in May from a year earlier, driven by double-digit rises in food and fuel prices
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Big Mouth India government fails again, Rupee drops back to 57. Once again, the government unnecessarily raised expectations only to disappoint.

Big Mouth Indians style :lol:
 
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India keen to invest in Indonesia's East Java

Jakarta, June 26 (IANS) Indian companies are interested in investing in various businesses in Indonesia's East Java province, especially in steel, textile, education and human resource development sectors, a top Indian official has said.

India's Ambassador to Indonesia Gurjit Singh said this to H. Soekarwo, governor of East Java, during a visit to provincial capital Surabaya, also the second largest city in the country, the Indian embassy said in a statement.

Singh told Soekarwo that business delegations from India would include Surabaya as part of their tours to explore greater possibilities in the region.

Major Indian companies have already made substantial investments in East Java, and more plans will be considered, Singh said.

India would also offer five technical scholarships to people from East Java for short-term training programmes in India.

Singh said several students from the province have been shortlisted for grant of scholarships for graduate courses in India, and would be leaving for the country in the current academic year.

The Indian envoy met a few senior educationists from the universities of East Java to discuss further educational collaboration with India.
India keen to invest in Indonesia's East Java (With Image)
 
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Is this an Indian thread or a Chinese one? :undecided:

its good to have critics around or you will have no choice than to belive the government.
its give you the picture that the govt. will avoide. so its actually good.


secondly they are too obsessed about India & hence read more about it.
 
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India: Water cut likely if no rain by next week

26-06-2012

The delayed rains has raised concerns of the civic administration over the management of water available in dams and it has decided to take the final call on a water cut by next week if there is no rainfall by then.

Water cut likely if no rain by next week: Pathak - Indian Express

in fact monsoon rainfalls are good for the farmers bad for the cities as the drainage systems in the latter are so poorly constructed that flooding is a daily battle for the city / slum dwellers!
 
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Ikea’s decision to invest €600m in the first stage of a possible €1.5bn investment over the next 15-20 years gave a precious boost to the Indian government on Friday – reinforced by Moody’s on Monday, when it declined to follow Fitch and S&P’s downgrades of India’s outlook and held its own outlook steady.

Anand Sharma, trade and industry minister, made the point talking with reporters in Belgium: “Investors [have shown their] confidence in India, irrespective of the country’s rating… the fundamentals of our economy are strong and will remain strong.”

With India presenting high budget and current account deficits, high inflation, low growth and a weak currency, Sharma’s claim might be debatable. But seven months after the government rolled out a policy allowing foreign companies to own 100 per cent of single-brand retail outlets – while also rolling back a proposal to allow them to take control of multibrand outlets – Delhi has its tent pole project in Ikea.

“It is a confirmation of investors’ continued confidence in India and its economy and endorsement of our policy. I expect many more such announcements,” Sharma added.

Ikea in India: others on the way? | beyondbrics
 
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India-EU free trade to support both stumbling economies | Firstpost

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If India is able to bounce off of these levels, which I think is a strong possibility, then last week was just a temporary reaction. The rupee ( INR , quote ), after all, has fallen by such a large amount that the devalued currency alone will make India's economy pick up speed. More time is needed, but the Indian economy remains one to pay close attention to.

Indian economy: a temporary breakdown, or something else? - NASDAQ.com

Read more: Indian economy: a temporary breakdown, or something else? - NASDAQ.com
 
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