Indian Army gets Battle ready on Jaisalmer border with Pakistan.

[KRAIT]

Sir

Lets hold our horses here. If you look at the history, both sides at no point targeted civilians during civilians in 65 and 71. We both have professional armed forces and a professional soldier considers it beneath his honour to deliberately kill innocent civilians. IAF planes hovered over Pakistani cities and vice versa with Pakistani planes hovering over Indian cities close to the border, at no point did these planes drop bombs in civilian areas. Neither did the artillery boys on both sides deliberately targeted civilians.

Exactly....I was just telling that guy....killing civilians is never accepted even in war......

 

[Alfa-Fighter]

I know cowardice was the feeling running through you Indians in Kargil when your boys were getting mowed down by machine gun fire.

Yes right, we cowards indian taken back Tiger HIll but what about Brave PAK solders ??? the brave PAK finest commondo tried to Take Siachin , but cowards indian killed all Pak Commandos , one by one , they practice shooting ...enjoyed when Finest PAK commando fallen from mountain Peaks.....one by one ,

Go and Lean ..first ....

 

[deltacamelately]

Hon Sir

I would respectfully disagree with you. Pakistan achieved the gun type nuke long back in the 80's during Zia ul Haq's era. Mirage aircraft were modified and to carry out an operation. Pakistan has reached this stage where it has a very modern missile program. Do you honestly believe that Pakistan would spend all these billions and bear the brunt of international community to just achieve a gun type solution. That itself would be unacceptable to the strategic high command and the DG would be fired from his job outright. Pakistan has been conducting cold tests since the end of late 1990's and the introduction of super computers have made the process even easier. Lack of nuke would have ensured a military strike from India post the 26/11 attacks. I can assure you that PA Generals are confident of mating a strategic nuke and delivering it to India. Under the leadership of Lt Gen Gillani whom i might add is a very fine officer, the assembling time has been brought down considerably. Thus, i would conclude by stating that please don't make the mistake of thinking that Pakistan does not has the capability to miniaturize her warheads.

Though I am no authority on the subject being debated here, whatever open source material available suggest, no one (outside the subcontinent) is confident that Pakistan and possibly India too, have till date, been able to miniaturize their warheads, enough to mate them to missiles.

Hell, people even doubt Israel's capabilities in this regard. The most notable reason being stated is the lack of further tests that is required to validate the designs. Let me evaluate a little.

Even though the five nuclear tests carried out in the Ras Koh Hills were widely publicized, claiming that the tests involved one large and four "low yield" tests, something that most western experts disagree with, specially regarding the yield. Further, there are many diverging, even contradictory views expressed by the very people involved. Samar Mubarakmand, who was in charge of the Pakistani Atomic Energy Commission's Directorate of Technical Development, claimed that the test tunnel, rather than being straight, was "designed in the form of a double-S shape".

Pakistani Defence Journal's claim that the tunnel had a "fishhook" at the end to allow for a device emplacement that would result in the tunnel self sealing after the detonation.

Another report also claimed that the tunnel was "M" shaped, suggesting that the tunnel may have also bifurcated near the end to allow for the single large test to be emplaced in one fishhook, with the set of four smaller ones possibly at a second fishhook.

It thus seems absurd that a ultra serious thing such as a nuclear test, which involves detailed, layered, well documented and elaborate planning is marred by multiple contradictory claims.

Also, plutonium weapons are lighter, and have a higher explosive yield than weapons based on enriched uranium, which have been the mainstay of Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme since its inception in the 1970s. Recognizing that Pakistan requires lighter plutonium warheads for miniaturization and fitment on missiles, the development of plutonium reactors and reprocessing plants needs greater momentum. Pakistan's efforts to build plutonium weapons capabilities started quite late, i.e. in the 1990s. Pakistan today has one operational plutonium reactor in Khushab, whose capacity is estimated to be between 40-50 MW which doesn't seems adequate.

All the nuclear haves, had their fair share of duds and test failures, before they could actually fit a working warhead into a missile. In the process which involved multiple tests, they have collected enough data that can be consumed by super computers in order to simulate a real test, something that Pakistan nor India can't boast about. If you thus look into the very fact, that both India and Pakistan have so far kept their nukes in component form and have not actually mated the warheads with the delivery platform, it gets obvious that their respective programs are still evolving and there's a lot that still remains un-fulfilled.

For any foreign power, which might seek to takeout Pakistan's nukes, a 3:1:3 hit in all the three elements of its nuclear forces, namely the warhead, the delivery vehicle and the C2I nodes, will be required to say the least. As it seems, Pakistan has done its math and has decided to make this job extremely difficult, if not impossible, by going for maximum number of warheads that it can get. Once achieved, it will give your nuclear forces the required confidence to retain the capability to nuke one or more targets, whether counter force or counter value, even in the worst possible scenario. India's case in that respect is different, as it seeks to just maintain the balance vis-a-vis China and Pakistan by going through the triad analogy.

 

[The Deterrent]

Though I am no authority on the subject being debated here, whatever open source material available suggest, no one (outside the subcontinent) is confident that Pakistan and possibly India too, have till date, been able to miniaturize their warheads, enough to mate them to missiles.

Hell, people even doubt Israel's capabilities in this regard. The most notable reason being stated is the lack of further tests that is required to validate the designs. Let me evaluate a little.

Even though the five nuclear tests carried out in the Ras Koh Hills were widely publicized, claiming that the tests involved one large and four "low yield" tests, something that most western experts disagree with, specially regarding the yield. Further, there are many diverging, even contradictory views expressed by the very people involved. Samar Mubarakmand, who was in charge of the Pakistani Atomic Energy Commission's Directorate of Technical Development, claimed that the test tunnel, rather than being straight, was "designed in the form of a double-S shape".

Pakistani Defence Journal's claim that the tunnel had a "fishhook" at the end to allow for a device emplacement that would result in the tunnel self sealing after the detonation.

Another report also claimed that the tunnel was "M" shaped, suggesting that the tunnel may have also bifurcated near the end to allow for the single large test to be emplaced in one fishhook, with the set of four smaller ones possibly at a second fishhook.

It thus seems absurd that a ultra serious thing such as a nuclear test, which involves detailed, layered, well documented and elaborate planning is marred by multiple contradictory claims.

Also, plutonium weapons are lighter, and have a higher explosive yield than weapons based on enriched uranium, which have been the mainstay of Pakistan's nuclear weapons programme since its inception in the 1970s. Recognizing that Pakistan requires lighter plutonium warheads for miniaturization and fitment on missiles, the development of plutonium reactors and reprocessing plants needs greater momentum. Pakistan's efforts to build plutonium weapons capabilities started quite late, i.e. in the 1990s. Pakistan today has one operational plutonium reactor in Khushab, whose capacity is estimated to be between 40-50 MW which doesn't seems adequate.

All the nuclear haves, had their fair share of duds and test failures, before they could actually fit a working warhead into a missile. In the process which involved multiple tests, they have collected enough data that can be consumed by super computers in order to simulate a real test, something that Pakistan nor India can't boast about. If you thus look into the very fact, that both India and Pakistan have so far kept their nukes in component form and have not actually mated the warheads with the delivery platform, it gets obvious that their respective programs are still evolving and there's a lot that still remains un-fulfilled.

For any foreign power, which might seek to takeout Pakistan's nukes, a 3:1:3 hit in all the three elements of its nuclear forces, namely the warhead, the delivery vehicle and the C2I nodes, will be required to say the least. As it seems, Pakistan has done its math and has decided to make this job extremely difficult, if not impossible, by going for maximum number of warheads that it can get. Once achieved, it will give your nuclear forces the required confidence to retain the capability to nuke one or more targets, whether counter force or counter value, even in the worst possible scenario. India's case in that respect is different, as it seeks to just maintain the balance vis-a-vis China and Pakistan by going through the triad analogy.

Sir, I'm sure you know about cold-testing a nuclear warhead design. Since 11th March 1983, Pakistan conducted 24 cold tests in the Kirana Hills (Sargodha). 6 nuclear weapon designs were finalized, all of which were tested in 1998.
After that the cold testing was shifted to the Kala Chitta Mountain range, and God knows how many more designs have been developed there till now. Cold tests are enough to validate the design, because the emission of neutrons confirms it.

You really think that the Organization in Pakistan working on Nuclear Weapons Design for the last 30 years, hasn't miniaturized them enough to be fitted on missiles?

 

[deltacamelately]

Sir, I'm sure you know about cold-testing a nuclear warhead design. Since 11th March 1983, Pakistan conducted 24 cold tests in the Kirana Hills (Sargodha). 6 nuclear weapon designs were finalized, all of which were tested in 1998.
After that the cold testing was shifted to the Kala Chitta Mountain range, and God knows how many more designs have been developed there till now. Cold tests are enough to validate the design, because the emission of neutrons confirms it.

You really think that the Organization in Pakistan working on Nuclear Weapons Design for the last 30 years, hasn't miniaturized them enough to be fitted on missiles?

There is a reason why experts disagree on whether you can have reliable nuclear arsenals, especially ones using advanced warhead designs, such as thermo nukes, miniaturized warheads etc. without testing, because it is very unlikely to develop significant nuclear innovations without testing.

Cold tests are essentially Sub critical tests involving nuclear materials and possibly high explosives, that purposely result in no yield. It is basically the lack of creation of a critical mass of fissile material required to determine the quantity of fissile material required for criticality with various fissile material compositions, densities, shapes, and reflectors.

Now since sub-critical, or as you say Cold tests do not reach critical mass, whether sub critical or super critical, the only other way left to determine whether your design is a workable nuke or a dud, is to use supercomputers to conduct virtual testing, but then your codes need to be validated against test data. Where is the data in case of Pakistan or India? Hence, it is higly unlikely that without viable data, Pakistani scientists or their Indian counterparts have mastered the art of miniaturizing nukes virtually in a vaccum, an achievement which even the more developed nuclear weapon states can not boast of.

It is now the individual's choice to agree/disagree.

Sir, I'm sure you know about cold-testing a nuclear warhead design. Since 11th March 1983, Pakistan conducted 24 cold tests in the Kirana Hills (Sargodha). 6 nuclear weapon designs were finalized, all of which were tested in 1998.
After that the cold testing was shifted to the Kala Chitta Mountain range, and God knows how many more designs have been developed there till now. Cold tests are enough to validate the design, because the emission of neutrons confirms it.

You really think that the Organization in Pakistan working on Nuclear Weapons Design for the last 30 years, hasn't miniaturized them enough to be fitted on missiles?

One more thing, in your case the fission fragments have such low excitation energy that no neutrons or gammas are emitted.

 

[SQ8]

but then your codes need to be validated against test data. Where is the data in case of Pakistan or India? [/B].

A certain nation that has already done so before..up north..and others based on a country that hosted an IPL recently.
However .. that data was not exactly matching the requirements of the designs Pakistan uses...so the designs are still untested...and hence in prototype production only(miniature).

The Plutonium design has been based on a "tested" system..
Less said the better.

 

[deltacamelately]

A certain nation that has already done so before..up north..and others based on a country that hosted an IPL recently.
However .. that data was not exactly matching the requirements of the designs Pakistan uses...so the designs are still untested...and hence in prototype production only(miniature).

The Plutonium design has been based on a "tested" system..
Less said the better.

That leaves no space for any further academic arbitration.

The Chinese are known to have provided the blue print of a gun type nuke, you are opening a new chapter here altogether.

The Vela incident is unsubstantiated till date. And there are NO credible sources that hint at any iota of Pakistani involvement, neither Chinese. Hell, even the much toued Israeli connection is nowehere established.

 

[2105av]

Hi.Am new to this site and really appreciate the manner in which people from both the countries(India-Pakistan) converse here like civilized human being instead of rabid dogs.Hats off to the admin for maintaining strict decorum.

I have observed that a lot of senior Pakistani member's standard response in otherwise conventional warfare forums here boils down to 'The strategic doctrine' and how Pakistan will not resist from a nuclear First Strike in case of 'Indian aggression'..I have one or two humble points on this which might help to get the 'N' word out of the discussion..

1)India has NEVER EVER been the first to attack Pakistani soil. Siachen may be an exception in our otherwise reactive policy in all the previous wars.It may be pointed out that in case Pakistan yet again attempts any adventure across Indian borders and then chooses to 'defend itself' with nukes in the face of Indian retaliation,it would have dug its own grave.This is because after that,India will have justification when it retaliates on a massive scale..The international community will also join hands to seize Pakistan's WMDs in the interests of mankind..After all,no one likes a chap who fires nukes first..

2)Lets say Pakistan has fool proof delivery platforms for its nukes..Lets also suppose that it has more of them than India.Let's further suppose that we Indians are incompetent fools and do not know the present precise location of most of Pakistan's capabilities inside their relatively small country.. In this ideal scenario(for Pakistan) and in keeping with its first-use policy,Pakistan launches its missiles against the Indian forces,Delhi,Mumbai,whatever.Even then,the thing that will work in India's favor is its intense strategic depth,vis-a-vis Pakistan..Logic dictates that whatever Pakistan's capabilities might be,they cannot identify all of India's asset locations.India,on the other hand will have a relatively easy task...The Pakistanis may hit one,two,even three(dumb as we Indians are..) cities..What happens after that is massive retaliation by India,the result of which should better be left out of this discussion.There is a reason why nobody could ever conquer Russia..Its called 'Strategic depth'.

Therefore,my Pakistani friends,my point is that you should refrain from so much of jingoism with respect to your nuclear weapons,especially in civilized and gentlemanly forums such as these..The net result will not be something that will ultimately be in Pakistan's favor.Of course,the best way would be to forget the past,resolve our differences peacefully and thrive.After all, even the British and Germans are the best of friends now...Regards.​