China’s Malacca Dilemma Alternate Routes For Shipping
In a thinly veiled reference to the United States, President Hu Jintao of China was quoted by Xinhua News Agency as warning that “certain major powers” might seek to control oil flow through the strait. Analysts say China and some Middle East countries, including Iran, that depend heavily on the strait to supply East Asian consumers would welcome alternative routes and reserve storage facilities.
The above subject was taken up by CMC of China since 2003. If Malacca Straits are closed by any chance China will be without feed to its rapacious appetite for resources but emergency solutions to China’s ‘Malacca Dilemma’ with huge reserves has been worked out by China and IDU offers what these are. India has to think this out and co-operate with China or confront it if need arises, and USA’s pivot is aimed for this and the South China Sea dispute which IDU will unfold soon after the East Asia summit as Indian stance has been ambivalent..
It must be noted in China there are more decision takers than there are decision makers and advisers. This is seen in their CPC central committee and Central Military Commission (CMC) in which Xi Jinping has taken charge with military officers only and his second wife is a service singer. In India we have more decision makers and advisers (Bloated Bureaucracy, PMO full of advisers along with NSA, Planning Commission in A/C offices, over 220 Flag officers in Delhi and no CDS) and less DECISION TAKERS. Addtionally PM Dr Manmohan Singh’s slow motion committees which are now are running short of houses for themselves and soon funds are more of a burden on decision making. Even strategy is made in our wonderful Jugad fashion in which we excel. China is thinking out its cultural, economic and military challenges for the 21st century and Malacca dilemma is one prime one. At the Zuhai Aero Show PLA showcased the new CM -400 air launched aircraft carrier missile which will go to Pakistan’s JF-17s also.
It also became clear last month at EURONAVAL at Le Bourget Paris where IDU was invited to a discussion on China- India Maritime and Economic Competition in the 21st Century and USA’s Pivot. It was prefaced by the statement of the French Defence Minister Le Drian, that geo-politically the world has shrunk and added, “ that this is both a good thing and a risk. We must take this matter into consideration …..Protecting the freedom of the seas must be one of the concrete pillars of our defense strategy”.
To further this on 23rd October to look in to the theme of EURONAVAL which was ‘Future at Sea’, French CNS Admiral Bernard Rogel and Brazilian CNS Admiral Julio Soares de Moura Neto of 12 years standing made it clear that the challenges at sea will have a decisive effect on a nation’s economy and for France and Brazil it will be no different as ‘Maritimization’ in the 21st century was the twin sister of ‘Globalization’. IDU adds that there is also ‘Informalization’ in the world with swift transfer of intelligence, funds and data which brings about the need for cyber security and swifter decision making by experts based on intelligence not jugad..
IDU was asked to study and address Malacca dilemma syndrome and it was clear that China and PLA(N) are clear on what to do if The Straits of Maraca and Singapore the most important sea lines of the world are threatened and China runs short of energy and other resources which the West will try to ensure. It was Hitler who said, “Oil won the War “ when Germany ran out of oil supply and routes.
China has four alternate routes, though they will take time from 1 weeks to 1 month to operationalise.
1. The Road route from Gwadar along East West Corridor of the Karakoram road highway on which its all weather friend Pakistan has allowed China to work as it connects China’s ‘core business area’ of Xinjiang to Central Asia via Urumqi and Lanzou and to Kashgar called the ‘Silk Route’ in olden days. Hence the desire of the Pakistanis to resolve Saichen for its side effects and the need to get to Karakoram pass if possible. This route also connects the Wakhan corridor. It is inhospitable territory at 13,000 feet but will and can be made operational as Chinese M-11 and other missiles and nuclear components and aircraft parts etc come via this rugged route. The Chinese contingency for few thousand tons (like US sends to Afghanistan in convoys) and rising in summer per month is being planned for Central China . For emergency air freight will be considered for light and valuable resources.
2. Lesser known is the dormant Malaysian Trans-Peninsula Petroleum, or TPP, a privately held company that is spearheading a project, which has completed land survey and confirmation by the government of the existing land titles, where tankers can come to the Eastern Coast of Malaysia’s port at the narrows and the oil be pumped by a quickly laid pipe line across 120 miles to the Western Coast port of Malyasia and Chinese tankers will take the oil and gas across to Chinese ports. In this case road tankers can be used till the pipe line is ready and an oil pipe line company has been set up but at present it is not cost effective even if this route saves few hundreds of miles of sea passage but at $ 150 a barrel it looks feasible. See Map. Malaysia has $ 75 bill trade with China so it is playing ball.
3. The Kra canal was proposed in Thailand’s narrow and China was and is willing to fund it but US has ensured the project does not move despite feasibility studies of cost saving. Canal dues will pay back. Any infrastructure that can last long or forever will pay back is what Strauss head of Bank of America said when he was asked to fund the Berkeley Bridge in San Fanscisco. India has seen how Highway toll roads are paying back but infrastructure is crumbling and decision making and contract awarding is dilatory. It is criminal.
4. The fourth alternate are all the secondary sea routes listed in the Indonesian archipelago led by Sunda and Lombok. It needs noting today Singapore Straits carries 3,000,000,000 tons cargo worth $ 390 bill with 75,510 ships in max depth of 3.5 metres. Sunda carries 111,000,000 tons worth $ 5 bill in unlimited depth with 1,320 ships and Lombok and Makassar carry 36,000,000 tons worth $ 40 bill deep 604 ships in unlimited and easy navigation depth worth $ 40 bill.
That is the quick fix solution to the Chinese Malacca Dilemma and needs study as China has offered $ 474 mill to the ASEAN maritime fund in cheque book diplomacy and its Tribute system and will press its S China Sea claim at the forthcoming meet.