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India Will Burn its 100 Billion in Five Months

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India will burn its $100 billion in 5 months​

India's reserve has dropped $52 billion since the beginning March but $21 billion of that decline has occurred in the past month​


Literally -

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We atleast have $100 bn to burn, its still more than 10 times of what our rich neighbour has.
 
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India will burn its $100 billion in 5 months​

India's reserve has dropped $52 billion since the beginning March but $21 billion of that decline has occurred in the past month​



Modi has been single handedly crashing Indian Economy with his foolish policies.

First - Demonitization, Second - COVID lockdown and now defending Indian Currency using their Dollar Reserves.
 
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Why does India even bother to defend their currency right now?

It's nowhere near a hard currency, so it doesn't seem like a good use of money at all.
 
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Why does India even bother to defend their currency right now?

It's nowhere near a hard currency, so it doesn't seem like a good use of money at all.

Because skyrocketing energy and commodity prices that look like will still going on quite long by seeing the determination of Russia and Ukraine in their war.

Currency depreciation will make energy cost getting expensive which is not good for Indian industry competitiveness, and also with commodity price increase, lower income people will get the effect, not good for both economic and political point of view.

Indian government also worried with their private sector that has many debt from foreign loan and foreign denominated bond.

The pledge I believe for long term, and it is good to scare the speculators before it is too late

I think it will be a combination of interest rate hike and market intervention to defend Rupee
 
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Because skyrocketing energy and commodity prices that look like will still going on quite long by seeing the determination of Russia and Ukraine in their war.

Currency depreciation will make energy cost getting expensive which is not good for Indian industry competitiveness, and also with commodity price increase, lower income people will get the effect, not good for both economic and political point of view.

Indian government also worried with their private sector that has many debt from foreign loan and foreign denominated bond.

The pledge I believe for long term, and it is good to scare the speculators before it is too late

I think it will be a combination of interest rate hike and market intervention to defend Rupee
It doesn't do anything to indian export industry competitiveness, as the input is equaled out in the output.

The only thing it will do is decrease import consumption.

India's forex reserves are all from investment and loans.

None of what you said will stop speculators.

The only way to stop the negative externalities of naturally depreciating currency (without fixing the current account balance) is to implement capital controls.
 
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Its not burning, they are controlling supply demand and keep indian rupees strong to avoid economy unsustainability. Not like PKR
 
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It doesn't do anything to indian export industry competitiveness, as the input is equaled out in the output.

The only thing it will do is decrease import consumption.

India's forex reserves are all from investment and loans.

None of what you said will stop speculators.

The only way to stop the negative externalities of naturally depreciating currency (without fixing the current account balance) is to implement capital controls.

Capital control ? Indian equity market is full of foreign investors, that will be a massive capital outflow going on and could end up like what happen during 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis

Yep you also forget the foreign loan and foreign denominated bond Indian private sectors have

Essential consumption that we are speaking, not cars or luxury items, as Indians will keep importing oil, coal, palm oil, etc what ever the international price is
 
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Capital control ? Indian equity market is full of foreign investors, that will be a massive capital outflow going on and could end up like what happen during 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis
If the scenario of the next year plays out like my current base case, massive capital outflow from India will happen regardless, as their entire investment sector is basically a high p/e growth stock.

Foreign loans and foreign denominated bonds can be paid from export profits.

If they cannot, they will simply refinance those loans.

Then that is a natural limit to india's population growth of poor indians.

That's a good thing, not a bad thing.
 
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If the scenario of the next year plays out like my current base case, massive capital outflow from India will happen regardless, as their entire investment sector is basically a high p/e growth stock.

Foreign loans and foreign denominated bonds can be paid from export profits.

If they cannot, they will simply refinance those loans.

Do you think those who has foreign loan and foreign denominated bond are all export oriented industries ?

India is not China with strong export oriented industry, India projected trade deficit with China for this year alone is about 100 billion USD, and I believe we are talking about manufacturing goods from China.

Mostly Indian industry is serving domestic market, so currency depreciation will increase input cost and increase the out put prices, this will effect demand (quantity)
 
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Do you think those who has foreign loan and foreign denominated bond are all export oriented industries ?

India is not China with strong export oriented industry, India projected trade deficit with China for this year alone is about 100 billion USD, and I believe we are talking about manufacturing goods from China.

Mostly Indian industry is serving domestic market, so currency depreciation will increase input cost and increase the out put prices, this will effect demand (quantity)
Less domestic consumption will naturally help balance the current account.

You keep saying these things as if they are bad.

It will lower the fake portion of India's GDP, but that's about it as far as downsides.

Who cares if the fake part of a number goes down.
 
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