India to outpace China in 2011: WB

[SpArK]

In their dreams..... down down World Bank..

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Well, it's already more than 8 months in 2011 -- where does India stand compared to China today?

The prediction seems to have been badly wrong.

India Economic Growth Slowest Since 2009 - WSJ.com

In fact... it is India that has slowed down significantly to 7.8% growth. Meanwhile, China is on 9.5%.

Could anyone of you shed a light on the inflation levels and it's contribution in Chinese growth?

Inflation is a big problem in China, but the levels are nowhere near close to the inflation rates in South Asia.

To prevent overheating, the Chinese government wants to reduce annual growth to 8%, but they always overshoot the target. The oft-held view in the West, is that inflation is relatively more dangerous in China, due to the inflexible political system. Though personally, I think the CCP is a lot more flexible than most outsiders give it credit for.

 

[Galaxy]

The prediction seems to have been badly wrong.

India Economic Growth Slowest Since 2009 - WSJ.com

In fact... it is India that has slowed down significantly to 7.8% growth. Meanwhile, China is on 9.5%.



Inflation is a big problem in China, but the levels are nowhere near close to the inflation rates in South Asia.

To prevent overheating, the Chinese government wants to reduce annual growth to 8%, but they always overshoot the target. The oft-held view in the West, is that inflation is relatively more dangerous in China, due to the inflexible political system. Though personally, I think the CCP is a lot more flexible than most outsiders give it credit for.

7.8% was only 1 quarter growth. Overall it's 8.5% only on yearly basis. Our Priority is to control Inflation 1st. Growth can take back seat as of now. Inflation is world problem now with rise of commodity prices. 8% Growth is fine with soften of Inflation. 9%+ growth will come once Inflation will be under control. Also, US and EU market are facing huge debt crisis so World Economy will have effect. Let see what happens to US/Europe and it's effect to Asia. We will have less impact in long run that is sure. Our market is not dependent on US unlike your high exposure. Today your Hang Seng market is down 5% same like US was down 4% yesterday.

 

[Vibs]

The prediction seems to have been badly wrong.

India Economic Growth Slowest Since 2009 - WSJ.com

In fact... it is India that has slowed down significantly to 7.8% growth. Meanwhile, China is on 9.5%.



Inflation is a big problem in China, but the levels are nowhere near close to the inflation rates in South Asia.

To prevent overheating, the Chinese government wants to reduce annual growth to 8%, but they always overshoot the target. The oft-held view in the West, is that inflation is relatively more dangerous in China, due to the inflexible political system. Though personally, I think the CCP is a lot more flexible than most outsiders give it credit for.

Any idea about the inflation figures of China in numbers? I know India is in the 9.xx% figures. Google throws up figures of 7-8% for China. But I did read somewhere that China was trying to control growth. Wonder how you do that??

 

[Galaxy]

Our Inflation is high now which is 9%, China 7% i suppose. 2% makes all difference. . India is behind by 1.5%.

Anyway, Situation has changed after west debt crisis

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Any idea about the inflation figures of China in numbers? I know India is in the 9.xx% figures. Google throws up figures of 7-8% for China. But I did read somewhere that China was trying to control growth. Wonder how you do that??

China's inflation in 2010 overall was 3%.

However, it has been rising quickly this year, with a rate of 6.4% in June, the highest point in three years.

BBC News - Chinese inflation hits three-year high -> Neutral source

The real problem is food inflation and house price inflation. China is not a democracy, so it's harder to vent public frustrations (as many experts like to say).

But I did read somewhere that China was trying to control growth. Wonder how you do that??

That's where not being a democracy, pays dividends for us.

China can (and has already done this several times) "order" the Banks to stop lending so much money. Also if you consider the size of the Public sector in China compared to the Private sector, you can see that the government has an enormous amount of direct control over the economy.

Which is why I'm slightly puzzled that the Chinese government has not managed to slow down growth rates to their target of 8%. I am guessing it is more of a political target than an economically practical one.

 

[Galaxy]

India RBI has increased various lending rate multiple time (Highest in Asia). profit margin for major companies has hit heavily. The RBI says that India is sacrificing growth to control inflation. they are doing correct thing.

Everyone has to understand, Inflation is more important than Growth. both India and China can maintain 8%-10% growth with a year of sacrifice. unfortunately Commodity price specially crude and food staple is not in our hand. Thankfully, we both don't have major debt crisis like west and that what matters in long run.

 

[Vibs]

China's inflation in 2010 overall was 3%.

However, it has been rising quickly this year, with a rate of 6.4% in June, the highest point in three years.

BBC News - Chinese inflation hits three-year high -> Neutral source

The real problem is food inflation and house price inflation. China is not a democracy, so it's harder to vent public frustrations (as many experts like to say).



That's where not being a democracy, pays dividends for us.

China can (and has already done this several times) "order" the Banks to stop lending so much money. Also if you consider the size of the Public sector in China compared to the Private sector, you can see that the government has an enormous amount of direct control over the economy.

Which is why I'm slightly puzzled that the Chinese government has not managed to slow down growth rates to their target of 8%. I am guessing it is more of a political target than an economically practical one.

Oh ok..That's not much different that what the RBI did in India by hiking lending rates, making it costlier for companies and individuals to get loans. But for China, being a manufacturing hub for most of the companies in the world, how can you slow down growth unless the growth of the companies buying from you slows? As long as they grow,they will keep manufacturing more in China. And as long as that happens, the economy is going to grow!!!

 

[Vibs]

India RBI has increased various lending rate multiple time (Highest in Asia). profit margin for major companies has hit heavily. The RBI says that India is sacrificing growth to control inflation. they are doing correct thing.

Everyone has to understand, Inflation is more important than Growth. both India and China can maintain 8%-10% growth with a year of sacrifice. unfortunately Commodity price specially crude and food staple is not in our hand. Thankfully, we both don't have major debt crisis like west and that what matters in long run.

Well India is building strategic oil reserve to counter that. Staple is a problem as it's under layers of bureaucracy and we have food grains ******* than being distributed.
India to have strategic oil reserve by October 2011 - Times Of India
That's where China is ahead of us. Surprisingly China has a strategic reserve of a commodity most countries in the world would downplay and it's paying rich dividends for them.

Many countries have strategic oil reserves but China has strategic pork reserve for social stability
Many countries have strategic oil reserves but China has strategic pork reserve for social stability

 

[Shardul.....the lion]

China's inflation in 2010 overall was 3%.

However, it has been rising quickly this year, with a rate of 6.4% in June, the highest point in three years.

BBC News - Chinese inflation hits three-year high -> Neutral source




That's where not being a democracy, pays dividends for us.

China can (and has already done this several times) "order" the Banks to stop lending so much money. Also if you consider the size of the Public sector in China compared to the Private sector, you can see that the government has an enormous amount of direct control over the economy.

RBI has managed to raise interest rates 11 times in last 16 months to curb inflation in a democratic india.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

But for China, being a manufacturing hub for most of the companies in the world, how can you slow down growth unless the growth of the companies buying from you slows? As long as they grow,they will keep manufacturing more in China. And as long as that happens, the economy is going to grow!!!

Well, remember that many of the largest companies in China, are in fact state-owned. Which of course gives the CPC an enormous amount of influence in the Public sector (which is very large).

Also, according to the World Bank, exports only make up 27% of China's GDP. World Bank - Exports as a percentage of GDP

Consumption and investment make up the lion's share of China's GDP, and state investment in particular is easily controlled.

The biggest hurdle to reducing GDP growth rates I think, is that there will be less jobs created (and less money to go around), which leads directly to increased civil unrest. Which of course the Chinese government doesn't want to see.

 

[Foreigntrademan]

That's the great thing about global trade. We can ALL benefit from it... it's not a zero-sum game.

As a side-note I'd like to point out that growing 8.5% at China's current economic size is still enormous growth.

In real terms (not in percentage terms), the amount of growth would still be increasing.

EDIT: I know the CCP is trying to "cool down" the Chinese economy to prevent overheating, but I don't think it will fall by that much. I think it's more accurate to say that the Indian rate of growth will surpass the Chinese one in 2013, not in 2011.

Mostly because of the real estate investment. Govnment pay attention to it at the right time.

 

[Foreigntrademan]

You guys must be kiddin..The value of building is $1 billion which includes Land as well. The construction cost him only $77 million but because of the exorbitant real estate value in Mumbai, the value of the land raised 15 times, which is reflected as 1 billion.

Its his money, he can do whatever he wants. Yet, he is one of the leading Job providers in India. India is democratic country where Individual has certain rights not like communist China. Please if you are happy with your way of life, good for you, but please don't rub it in our face. We aren't doing badly either.

Individual has certain right not like communist China
Sorry, I want to say you are ignorant. Do you mean we Chinese people do not have certain right??? Where did you get this??? Don't tell me you get it from your stupid and blind media in USA. Or all I can say is that you are cheated by your media. They report for audience rating not based not fact..know what everytime I read news from US which referred to China. I want laugh, and sure your releases are joking or drunk,,,,or maybe they use drug first then write news themselves.
The most funny thing is ..you guys trust it.....hehehehehe...I can not stand it..

 

[Foreigntrademan]

The two countries are too much different in economy development,even the way to calculate the GDP growth is different,so no way to compare.
My personal view is that China's economy is more dangerouse than the Indians since we are on a way to higher level.So far the Chinese economy is facing severel problems:world economy crisis,inflation threat,the industrial uppdation,structural change and so on will eventurally slow down the economy grow in the next few years.
China"s economy needs a break to addjust and improve itself.The one who firstlly finished the self addjustion in this world crisis will be the one who will win the most in the future.

Choice remark!!

 

[Foreigntrademan]

What kind of audacious statements did I make?

He is totally angry.. Forget it and leave him along. You hurt his feeling actually. As long as you tell the truth, no matter whether he feel audacious or not...