India to become 5th or 6th Largest Economy (Nominal) by 2016-17.

[pursuit of happiness]

That means a tremendous fall in exports as we could become uncompetitive and priced out of American and European markets. If the rupee appreciates further, the exporters stand to lose this competitive edge to other countries. Exports will once again start to decline even as domestic revival is yet to pick-up. This will also encourage more imports resulting in a terrible balance of payments situation.

The Indian economy started showing improvement after the export oriented companies became more competitive in global markets after rupee fell to all-time low of 68.80 in August last year. The exports have been providing support to the economy at a time when the IIP data continued to show weak growth, month after month.

A significant rise in the rupee will also negatively impact earnings in sectors like, IT, Pharma, Leather and Garment exports. All leading to serious pressure on the jobs market.

A Rs 60-61 bracket against the USD I think would be ideal.

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Our economy mainly Domestic market drives and less of export..
even in export see what we are exporting..
we export iron ore and import steel
main export of india
India’s top 10 exported commodities - Livemint
Top 10 non-oil commodities that push up India’s import bill - NDTVProfit.com
India's trade: full list of exports, imports and partner countries | News | theguardian.com
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if you see import more on Oil , gold level ....
export more low end products
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so except IT export and remitance india will gain with Rs .value at Rs.50 -60

Inflation target 5%, dont want rupee back at 45 level: RBI Governor to NDTV Video - NDTVProfit.com

 

[HariPrasad]

If we can bring back some black money and chennalize them in indian economy, it will have a great positive impact on economy. Had 2G auctioned and we would have got 1.86 Lakh crore, they would have been sufficient to build a 15 to 20 room school in each and every village. Had coal block auctioned, we would have build a river grid across the country.

 

[Nova2]

Rupee climbed to 43 Rs from 49 in Vajpayee time.

It had come down to 39.33/$ in 2007 from 44.49/$ in 2006 !
,wonder how much has it affected our exports
Rupee vs dollar from 1990 to 2012

 

[Chanakya's_Chant]

With exception and prediction of rupee strengthening , there is a possibility of India climbing high in Nominal DGP and has a very good chance to become world's fifth or sixth economy surpassing Italy, Russia, Brazil and UK.

Modi as PM can boost Rupee to 45 against Dollar, all time high since 2008: Citigroup | India News Analysis and Op-Ed Commentary | Politics | Governance | Economic Freedom | National Interest

My calculation is as follows:

Rupee strengthening to Rs 45 to 40 against USD in 3 years.

Indian economy grows at 6%, 7%, and 8% respectively for 3 years.

Current GDP 1.9 Trillion.

In 2016-17, Indian GDP will be 3 Tr USD+. Making India 5th or 6th largest economy.

Gentleman let us discuss.

This might Help you >> These are the latest estimates compiled in July 2014.

India to become third largest economy by 2030: PwC - The Hindu

 

[Nova2]

Rupee climbed to 43 Rs from 49 in Vajpayee time.

It had come down to 39.33/$ in 2007 from 44.49/$ in 2006 !
,wonder how much has it affected our exports
Rupee vs dollar from 1990 to 2012

 

[Nova2]

This might Help you >> These are the latest estimates compiled in July 2014.

India to become third largest economy by 2030: PwC - The Hindu

Only $6.1 trillion by 2030, in 16 years we add just $4.1trillion ,china was $1.9 trillion in 2004 in 2014 it's $10.1trillion in just 10 years
He was also refering to were we would be ,say if ,rupee was to climb at 45/$ by 2017

 

[Beidou2020]

India has always been the country of the future, and it always will be.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Rupee will stabilize at 50-55. 40-45 is an overly optimistic view. And maintaining a 6.5% growth rate seems more plausible than 7-8% growth rate, specially when the circulating 'free money' has dried up. I'd delay the time frame to 2020-22.

 

[Chanakya's_Chant]

Only $6.1 trillion by 2030, in 16 years we add just $4.1trillion ,china was $1.9 trillion in 2004 in 2014 it's $10.1trillion in just 10 years
He was also refering to were we would be ,say if ,rupee was to climb at 45/$ by 2017

Then India will be $8.2 Trillion Economy by 2030 if rupee climbs to 45 per Dollar.

 

[Mehrdad1111]

india and pakistan are perfect examples when it comes to development after colonial rule. both were british colonies and had the same starting situation after independence. indien developed and is developing in the right direction while pakistan is standing still. same goes for the influence of indian hindu migrants and pakistani muslim migrants in UK. guess which gfroup is more succesfull? the hindus of course. it's all about the big influence of religion in pakistan. it makes development nearly impossible. i see a good future for india but am sad to say that i see talibans ruling pakistan soon with nukes in their hands. i hope i am wrong.

 

[cirr]

This might Help you >> These are the latest estimates compiled in July 2014.

India to become third largest economy by 2030: PwC - The Hindu

This is completely meaningless since each country adopts a different method of estimating its GDP。

The US for example capitalizes R & D expenditure（which ”inflates“ its economic size by about 2.5%） while China does not。

Another difference lies in the way housing expenditure are calculated。The US for example uses market prices while China estimates its housing expenditure at cost，with the result that American owner-occupiers are deemed to spend an average of 1200 USD a month on ”rent“ while the comparable figure for China is only 158 yuan！

China has decided to adopt SNA 2008 following the US’s practice in 2015. So there should be a fairly big upward revision of GDP from next year onwards。

 

[HariPrasad]

Rupee will stabilize at 50-55. 40-45 is an overly optimistic view. And maintaining a 6.5% growth rate seems more plausible than 7-8% growth rate, specially when the circulating 'free money' has dried up. I'd delay the time frame to 2020-22.

Your projections are worst case scenario.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Your projections are worst case scenario.

Nope, more plausibility has been factored it.

 

[HariPrasad]

Nope, more plausibility has been factored it.

I remember when Yashwant sinha was a finance minister, he was complained by IT company that they are loosing revenue due to rupee appreciation. He had replied that IT companies have to learn to Hedge against rupee appreciation. I do not think that you can be a wealthy nation without rupee being appreciated.

 

[Kloitra]

I remember when Yashwant sinha was a finance minister, he was complained by IT company that they are loosing revenue due to rupee appreciation. He had replied that IT companies have to learn to Hedge against rupee appreciation. I do not think that you can be a wealthy nation without rupee being appreciated.

You can be pretty wealthy. Rupee is far more valuable than Yen or Won. Idea is to increase the exports, more than the imports not just cheapen out imports at the cost of exports.