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Earlier this month, SIPRI, the respected Sweden-based arms control and non-proliferation think tank, reported that China, India, and Pakistan had increased their nuclear arsenals by 10 to 20 weapons each during the past year. In this interview with Chidanand Rajghatta, SIPRI researcher Phillip Schell explains how they estimate the arsenal size of each country and the motivations driving their expansion
How does one arrive at the number of nuclear weapons that countries have when they dont declare it themselves or confirm your assessment?
Some countries release very detailed data. The US and Russia declare their nuclear weapons covered under the new START treaty. The US releases very detailed data, and Russia more selectively. No official declarations exist on tactical nuclear weapons and those in reserve and awaiting dismantlement, which in theory can be made operational, but we have a good idea of nuclear arsenals of these two countries.
But non-nuclear countries do not declare so how do you arrive at the numbers for their arsenal?
We extrapolate from a number of factors. SIPRI uses exclusively open-source material. Primarily, it is from government statements on nuclear strategies and policies, we conduct interviews with experts working in this area, fissile material production capacities, and information on the development of delivery systems that can give an idea of the numbers of war heads on delivery vehicles. We work with the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM) to estimated fissile material production and with Federation of America Scientists to derive the numbers of nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles.
Has there ever been an instance when a country had challenged your numbers?
Only the US and Russia officially declare information about their respective nuclear arsenals. France and the UK unilaterally and voluntarily released a great deal of information about their nuclear forces, declaring the upper ceilings for the total number of nuclear warheads in their arsenals. Then President Sarkozy announced a planned reduction to fewer than 300 warheads in 2008; the UK announced a reduction of its overall nuclear weapons stockpile to no more than 180. China, and also the NPT outliers India and Pakistan do not provide any information on the size of their nuclear arsenal. This is mostly because their nuclear forces are a lot smaller compared to Russia and the US. Israel neither confirms nor denies that it even has nuclear weapons.
Which was true of the non-declared nuclear powers till India and Pakistan became overt nuclear states. But they still dont declare the size of their arsenal.
Thats correct. It is basically unverifiable and like I explained the numbers are derived from a number of different aspects, but should be regarded as estimates.
Your 2013 yearbook says China, India, and Pakistan each increased their nuclear arsenal by 10 to 20 weapons in the last year. Can you explain how these numbers were arrived at and what they mean?
For China, we e s t i m at e d a slight increase. (SIPRI estimates Chinas nuclear weapons at 250). China is the only country among the five recognized nuclear powers that appears to be gradually increasing its arsenal. The increase appears to be part of a long-term modernization program, which has been going on for a while. China is pursuing a qualitative improvement of its inventory, US spending, including on long-range conventional strike capabilities, is driving China to make its own missiles more mobile and harder to attack. At the same time, despite recent debates caused by the publication of Chinas latest defense white paper, the Chinese nuclear policy still appears to be based on minimum nuclear deterrence and no first use. The increase is estimated to be in their road mobile systems like the DF-31 and DF-31A. China is consolidating and replacing its silo-based system with a road mobile system.
India is similarly working on expanding its capabilities to use nuclear weapons through new ballistic missiles in development. With India we see the gradual expansion of its longer-range ballistic missile capabilities which are not really targeted at Pakistan but rather at China. India appears to be moving towards a faster consolidation of Indias nuclear deterrence posture based on an operational triad of nuclear forces.
What about Pakistan?
Pakistan has taken to battlefield nuclear weapons, which in some way account for the numbers increase. That is the main characteristic of Pakistans modernization a focus on short range ballistic and cruise missiles. They appear to want to counter Indias ballistic defense system so they are trying out more classes of cruise missiles.
So by your count, the numerical value of a nuclear weapon is one, whether it is a battlefield or tactical nuclear weapon or it is a thermonuclear weapon?
That is correct, yes.
What about North Korea and Iran?
North Korea is a subject of much debate. It maintains a secretive and highly opaque military nuclear programme. Although there is no evidence of an operational nuclear weapon capability, obviously there have been three nuclear tests, which point at technical progress in that direction. But at this point we can say North Korea has probably produced enough plutonium for about six to eight rudimentary weapons. Iran appears to be trying to get close to the ability of making a nuclear weapon but there has neither been clear statement nor evidence that they will do so.
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How does one arrive at the number of nuclear weapons that countries have when they dont declare it themselves or confirm your assessment?
Some countries release very detailed data. The US and Russia declare their nuclear weapons covered under the new START treaty. The US releases very detailed data, and Russia more selectively. No official declarations exist on tactical nuclear weapons and those in reserve and awaiting dismantlement, which in theory can be made operational, but we have a good idea of nuclear arsenals of these two countries.
But non-nuclear countries do not declare so how do you arrive at the numbers for their arsenal?
We extrapolate from a number of factors. SIPRI uses exclusively open-source material. Primarily, it is from government statements on nuclear strategies and policies, we conduct interviews with experts working in this area, fissile material production capacities, and information on the development of delivery systems that can give an idea of the numbers of war heads on delivery vehicles. We work with the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM) to estimated fissile material production and with Federation of America Scientists to derive the numbers of nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles.
Has there ever been an instance when a country had challenged your numbers?
Only the US and Russia officially declare information about their respective nuclear arsenals. France and the UK unilaterally and voluntarily released a great deal of information about their nuclear forces, declaring the upper ceilings for the total number of nuclear warheads in their arsenals. Then President Sarkozy announced a planned reduction to fewer than 300 warheads in 2008; the UK announced a reduction of its overall nuclear weapons stockpile to no more than 180. China, and also the NPT outliers India and Pakistan do not provide any information on the size of their nuclear arsenal. This is mostly because their nuclear forces are a lot smaller compared to Russia and the US. Israel neither confirms nor denies that it even has nuclear weapons.
Which was true of the non-declared nuclear powers till India and Pakistan became overt nuclear states. But they still dont declare the size of their arsenal.
Thats correct. It is basically unverifiable and like I explained the numbers are derived from a number of different aspects, but should be regarded as estimates.
Your 2013 yearbook says China, India, and Pakistan each increased their nuclear arsenal by 10 to 20 weapons in the last year. Can you explain how these numbers were arrived at and what they mean?
For China, we e s t i m at e d a slight increase. (SIPRI estimates Chinas nuclear weapons at 250). China is the only country among the five recognized nuclear powers that appears to be gradually increasing its arsenal. The increase appears to be part of a long-term modernization program, which has been going on for a while. China is pursuing a qualitative improvement of its inventory, US spending, including on long-range conventional strike capabilities, is driving China to make its own missiles more mobile and harder to attack. At the same time, despite recent debates caused by the publication of Chinas latest defense white paper, the Chinese nuclear policy still appears to be based on minimum nuclear deterrence and no first use. The increase is estimated to be in their road mobile systems like the DF-31 and DF-31A. China is consolidating and replacing its silo-based system with a road mobile system.
India is similarly working on expanding its capabilities to use nuclear weapons through new ballistic missiles in development. With India we see the gradual expansion of its longer-range ballistic missile capabilities which are not really targeted at Pakistan but rather at China. India appears to be moving towards a faster consolidation of Indias nuclear deterrence posture based on an operational triad of nuclear forces.
What about Pakistan?
Pakistan has taken to battlefield nuclear weapons, which in some way account for the numbers increase. That is the main characteristic of Pakistans modernization a focus on short range ballistic and cruise missiles. They appear to want to counter Indias ballistic defense system so they are trying out more classes of cruise missiles.
So by your count, the numerical value of a nuclear weapon is one, whether it is a battlefield or tactical nuclear weapon or it is a thermonuclear weapon?
That is correct, yes.
What about North Korea and Iran?
North Korea is a subject of much debate. It maintains a secretive and highly opaque military nuclear programme. Although there is no evidence of an operational nuclear weapon capability, obviously there have been three nuclear tests, which point at technical progress in that direction. But at this point we can say North Korea has probably produced enough plutonium for about six to eight rudimentary weapons. Iran appears to be trying to get close to the ability of making a nuclear weapon but there has neither been clear statement nor evidence that they will do so.
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