India-Russia Divorce and its impact on Indian defence

[wiseone2]

If Russia loose one customer even partially they could deal massively with Pakistan which always turned down by Russia on Indian pressure which is fading away, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka jointly replace the loss of one customer.

russia can replace india with pakistan provided you place serious orders
you have to send business you send to china russia's way

even if india stops new purchases they need to order spares from russia. that business is substantial.

 

[salarsikander]

If any such thing happens Indians will be severely hit, considering the fact that even today 70% of their hardware is or Russian origin

 

[dadeechi]

The Real impact on Indian Defence is of Spare Parts for the existing Equipment

about Future and proposed equipment

India can get Planes from US and France options are there like
Rafales (already gonna signed)
F-16 Block xx
F-18
F-35 (5th Gen)

IL-78s
IL-76s as a Replacement India can get More C-17's and C-130's

New fighter jet induction is going to take time. India is hardly keeping up with the attritions/retirements.

Indian defense would be severely compromised and India would be forced to go into a bilateral defense pact with US for protection else India would not survive as a country.

China & Pakistan are going to go for the kill.

 

[Armani]

I just don't get the OP. Why are you assuming that India is moving away from Russia? @dadeechi

Some of India's biggest defence projects of the future are tied with the Russian industry. That level of cooperation is not seen and is largely not possible with any other country.

Lolss
How comes when they already have customer like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Iran

Don't be silly - all those countries combined don't order even 20% of the value India alone deals with Russia.

 

[dadeechi]

the impact on the Russian defense industry will be significant

May be or may not be but it would not help Indian defense.

 

[X-2.]

Seems like India & Russia are going for a slow and painful divorce.

How does this impact the availability of the existing Russia equipment and future procurements. What are alternatives?

Current Equipment
=================================================
T-90s
T-72s
SU-30MKI
MIG-29s
IL-78s
IL-76s
MI-17s
Tu-142M
Nuclear sub (leased)
Brahmos
S-300s


Proposed Equipment
===================================================
Ka-226
Super Sukhoi Upgrade
FGFA
S-400s
Brahmos-M
MTA (Dead)
Yassen Sub

Strategic Fallout
=================================================
Loose Veto at UN
Loose support for NSG
Increased Russia-Pakistan defense ties

Seems like India & Russia are going for a slow and painful divorce.

How does this impact the availability of the existing Russia equipment and future procurements. What are alternatives?

Current Equipment
=================================================
T-90s
T-72s
SU-30MKI
MIG-29s
IL-78s
IL-76s
MI-17s
Tu-142M
Nuclear sub (leased)
Brahmos
S-300s


Proposed Equipment
===================================================
Ka-226
Super Sukhoi Upgrade
FGFA
S-400s
Brahmos-M
MTA (Dead)
Yassen Sub

Strategic Fallout
=================================================
Loose Veto at UN
Loose support for NSG
Increased Russia-Pakistan defense ties

It will not impact on nsg or other forums as India Russia will hv business deals until it dent that then it will be same relations like pak Russia in cold war

 

[dadeechi]

Russia has not lost the indian market completely

BUT IT IS TRUE that the last ten years more and more hardware is Israeli USA & French.

Russia will have try harder to get future indian orders

And we do not see any signs that either side is trying...

 

[Muhammad Omar]

New fighter jet induction is going to take time. India is hardly keeping up with the attritions/retirements.

Indian defense would be severely compromised and India would be forced to go into a bilateral defense pact with US for protection else India would not survive as a country.

China & Pakistan are going to go for the kill.

I don't think that's gonna happen

 

[dadeechi]

I don't think that's gonna happen

Why? A balkanized India favors both China & Pakistan.

 

[Indika]

Tell me more about the 'latter'. Why do you think so?

have you ever played cut throat in billards?

The way it works is that China is of short term interest to Russia. But if it grows unchecked Russia or India will be their next target . Russia does not want rabid fundamentalist regimes like taliban on its border which will destabilize Central Asia (Chechnya ). On Iran , it is another country which has similar views on US cow boy attitude as Russia. All these concerns are shared by India as well.

In Grand scheme of geo-politics.
Russia wants some one who is not a direct threat but supportive. India not only fills the criteria but also counter balances china. India does not want US to come out on top, bcos if it does India will be the next target. US is fan of India but only due to china they tolerate India. As such India gets support from US only on China not on Pakistan. But Russia is willing to support India on pakistan. All in all every one balances each other. Every country will try to get some one whom they can deal with or comfortable with but not exceed them.

You can do all the permutation & combination for the big 10 , if one of them weakens the game changes drastically.

Why? A balkanized India favors both China & Pakistan.

If India is balkanized then of what value is pakistan to China? Then why will not pakistan export radicals to Uighur area along with turkey?

 

[Mamluk]

have you ever played cut throat in billards?

The way it works is that China is of short term interest to Russia. But if it grows unchecked Russia or India will be their next target . Russia does not want rabid fundamentalist regimes like taliban on its border which will destabilize Central Asia (Chechnya ). On Iran , it is another country which has similar views on US cow boy attitude as Russia. All these concerns are shared by India as well.

In Grand scheme of geo-politics.
Russia wants some one who is not a direct threat but supportive. India not only fills the criteria but also counter balances china. India does not want US to come out on top, bcos if it does India will be the next target. US is fan of India but only due to china they tolerate India. As such India gets support from US only on China not on Pakistan. But Russia is willing to support India on pakistan. All in all every one balances each other. Every country will try to get some one whom they can deal with or comfortable with but not exceed them.

You can do all the permutation & combination for the big 10 , if one of them weakens the game changes drastically.

Good response.

But geopolitics is very fluid and open ended, and holding on to a fixed notion is deadly.

It would be interesting to see if Russia and India's interests converge in Central Asia.

India is interested in a NATO presence around there, but China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran wants them go. Russia at the moment is more wary of NATO's designs than China's. So there we go, your interests diverge in Russia's own backyard.

 

[wiseone2]

If any such thing happens Indians will be severely hit, considering the fact that even today 70% of their hardware is or Russian origin

this is assuming russia does not supply spares

 

[Indika]

Good response.

But geopolitics is very fluid and open ended, and holding on to a fixed notion is deadly.

It would be interesting to see if Russia and India's interests converge in Central Asia.

India is interested in a NATO presence around there, but China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran wants them go. Russia at the moment is more wary of NATO's designs than China's. So there we go, your interests diverge in Russia's own backyard.

India wants Nato in afghanistan only due to taliban other than that India has no interest in supporting Nato. Its a fact that where US goes it implants itself by creating crisis like korea for example. Implanting US in Central Asia means loss of market but also invitation to strife.

 

[dadeechi]

If India is balkanized then of what value is pakistan to China? Then why will not pakistan export radicals to Uighur area along with turkey?

The northern states from Kashmir valley, Punjab, UP, Bihar, Bengal & Assam would fall to Pakistan.

Northeast, Bhutan, Sikkim, Nepal, Ladakh would fall to China.

Southern and Eastern states would fall to West.

Pakistan would be the buffer state between West & China

 

[Indika]

The northern states from Kashmir valley, Punjab, UP, Bihar, Bengal & Assam would fall to Pakistan.

Northeast, Bhutan, Sikkim, Nepal, Ladakh would fall to China.

Southern and Eastern states would fall to West.

Pakistan would be the buffer state between West & China

What makes you think they wont fight each other for the states? China will try to get access to Indian ocean just like russia tried to get warm water port. And you think pakistan will be happy with what it gets? World is not enough my dear.