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India reveals ambitions to vaccinate its population by December 2021, but how?

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India reveals ambitions to vaccinate its population by December 2021, but how?
29/05/2021 - 16:05
A drive-through vaccination centre in India. The country's vaccination drive is making slow progress due to shortages and squabbling between the central government and state authorities.

A drive-through vaccination centre in India. The country's vaccination drive is making slow progress due to shortages and squabbling between the central government and state authorities. Prakash SINGH AFP
The Indian government firmly maintains that at least 1.08 billion will have been vaccinated before December 2021 and assured the public that health facilities are currently being upgraded in the event of a third wave.

“The health ministry last week made it clear that within December, the nation will produce 2.16 billion doses of Covid-19 vaccines which means that at least 1.08 billion people will be able to get their jabs,” union minister Prakash Javdekar told reporters on Friday.

While the government did not get into specifics how the vaccination rollout will happen and where the vaccines would be procured, the head of India’s Covid task force, V K Paul indicated a day earlier that the government was in touch with major international vaccine manufacturers including Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson and Moderna.


“It is not that their vaccines are available in free supply. We need to understand that buying vaccines internationally is not similar to buying ‘off the shelf’ items,” Paul said.

The government’s clarification comes in the wake of criticism of its vaccine rollout, especially from the principal Opposition party, the Congress which lashed out at the government for its Covid management.

"My understanding and the understanding of experts is the current rate of vaccination of 3 per cent almost guarantees a third wave of virus when the lockdown goes, which is completely unnecessary," said Congress leader Rahul Gandhi.

“Going by the current pace of vaccinations, the entire inoculation exercise will take another three years, till May 2024, and the country will witness several Covid waves by then.”

Slow production

Vaccine supplies have become a sore subject in India, with several states insisting they do not have enough doses to vaccinate both age cohorts - 18 to 44 and 45+, amid concerns over slow production.

India’s foreign minister S Jaishankar, currently in the US, is tasked with meeting top officials and vaccine manufacturers to secure supply deals. President Joe Biden has agreed to ship 80 million doses of vaccine to needy countries, and India hopes to land as many of those as it can.

Vaccination numbers for May dropped by half from April. The Serum Institute of India, which produces ‘Covishield’ and Bharat Biotech, ‘Covaxin’ have been unable to ramp up production.

Earlier this week, India became only the third country to administer 200 million doses of the Covid vaccine. But this number hides more than it reveals.

Over 3 billion doses needed

As a share of its population, India has been able to vaccinate fewer people than in other populous developing countries such as China, Brazil, and Mexico.

Of this, only 42.6 million have received their two jabs, constituting just over 3 per cent of the population.

With the present Indian population of over 1.3 billion plus people, the number of vaccines required would be about 3.1 billion doses.

This is the number of doses required with provisions of about 15 percent process losses, which is inevitable in any vaccination strategy, say scientists.

India, meanwhile, showed a decline in daily cases and reported 173,790 new Covid-19 cases and 3,617 deaths in the last 24 hours, according to health ministry data.

The country’s total cases now stands at 27.7 million while total fatalities are at 322,512. Experts believe the actual infection and death numbers could be five to 10 times higher.
 
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