Commander T
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No matter who is in afghanistan......either it is USA or USSR.......... they are not here for good, they will try to use afghanistan as base camp. and in that case regional powersincluding russia and china specially pakistan will not stand away watching the scene from their windows....... they will climb in the battle field and repeat the history of USSR as it is happening now... so my conclusion is no matter how USA will try to manage it they will have a weakness and that weakness is the thought in afghans that forigners have attacked them, this will be a horror dream for any invaders, as they will be used again and again...... so i think better is to educate them and remove that honour of defeating the 2 superpowers in the past because they will then search for an enemy for war, and they will fight eachother or pakistan..... but pakistan has a trump card that is taliban so pakistan is to some extent safe, but they will then try to go to old soveit states and kashmir and palestain....so the best option for everyone including pakistan is that try to educate them or impose intense phscycological war on them..... ans other points that i raisedActually we need to go back to 1985-86 time frame when Russian Commies showed the world how to control Afghanistan. Not govern it, no no
just keep it under the thumb. That's all
Russian approach strenghts: Very small footprint (10-15 k troops), Use helicopter gunship + troop carriers and have fighter bombers overhead
Russian weakness: another super power USA gave the anti-dote to Muj in the form of stingers
Fast forward to 2001
Americans used the same
GW used the exact same method and kept Talibarbarians on the run
However Prez Obama in order to upend GW, ended up deploying needelessly 100K+ troops.
This was utter $tupidity. Afgh is not Iraq. Geography history and sociology is TOTALLY different. There was no need to do surge. Never.
Afghanistan is not a country to occupy and civilized.
No Siree
It is a country to be "managed" to the minimal extent
So if Prez Obama is willing to learn from history, then he will continue to manage it using 10-15k troops .
However if he is in a hurry to declare victory but accept defeat, he will pull out
It all depends on how USA/NATO manage Afgh later this year and beyond
My hunch is that they will continue to manage.
peace
Rawalpindi actually.
![Mrgreen :D :D](/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/mrgreen.gif)
no mate, no need to get emotional, somebody fight gorilla war because he cannot afford a conventional war.... if gorilla war is fought like conventional war, then why it will be called gorilla war...........and yes, in conventional war they cannot defeat even somalian army........but everybody has it,s own ways..........India just wants to make sure that Afghanistan doesn't return to the chaos it experienced in 1990s.
We both know that many nations stand to lose if this happens.
Terrain plays crucial role in war,
Can the same Talibanis fight US in open grounds? No.
I am not denying that they are good gorilla fighters, but we have to take all factors into consideration.
Biggest example for my theory is Mujahids failing to achieve their aim in Kashmir in 1990s; remember these same mujahids fought Soviet forces fiercely in Afghanistan.
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