India is still not in a position right now to use Afghanistan as a base to destabilize Pakistan for perpetuity.
India will never be in a position to destabilise Pakistan from Afghanistan. If anybody thinks otherwise, they are living in fool's paradise.
Indian efforts to destabilize Balochistan and FATA is against US interests, and it is something that will not be encouraged by Americans.
Indian interests do not get defined by American interests. 2014 is crucial. For 2 reasons. A new government will come in to power. Even if the UPA (congress) comes to power, it will be under a new PM. MMS is the softest PM, India has had in a long time. Secondly, the Indian establishment is looking keenly at Kashmir. Let me assure you, if trouble brews in Kashmir, both governments (UPA or NDA) will take an aggressive covert policy vis-a-vis Balochistan and Sindh. All the concerned people in the establishment believe, that there should be a disproportionate cost levied, in case there is an increase in moral support in relevant places.
So the Indians will either have to pay up or shut up. So far what the Indians have put forward is puny change, it won't buy them much influence in Afghanistan. If they want to continue their activities, they will have to drastically increase their aid to Afghanistan.
Indian influence in Afghanistan is not the lynch pin of our strategy to contain Pakistan. Our objective is to ensure anti-India capacities are not built in Afghanistan. Our interests are economic and increased co-operation with the Afghans to reduce the possibility of an anti-India stance from their territory. Pro-India need not mean anti-Pakistan. If the Taliban come to power and ask us to leave, we do exactly that.
Even the Americans have avoided giving the Afghans these sophisticated weapons. I wonder how NATO will react if the Indians do decide to supply these weapons to Afghanistan. This will be a huge commitment from the Indian side because not only will India have to supply these weapons, it will have to supply the infrastructure to support these sophisticated platforms. The ANA can barely keep its utility chopper fleet airworthy, they will require extensive assistance to operate Gunships.
The most potent weapon, which, may get delivered will be the Dhruv or the Rudra. Anything beyond this will require extensive ground infrastructure. Tanks and fighters are way beyond the scope now. But, if there was a wish list, I would suggest handing over a couple of squadrons of the LCA to keep HAL happy and build the Afghan AF. But, this is a remote possibility in my dreams.
Practically, I do not advocate weapons systems to Afghanistan from India. Guns, mortars, trucks, utility choppers and other logistical capabilities, yes. We should restrict ourselves to hospitals, schools, infrastructure and telecom.