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India overestimates its South China Sea leverage

BanglaBhoot

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As a regional major power in Asia, India does not feel at ease with China, a larger and more powerful neighbor. It admires China's imposing changeover, especially its economic takeoff, but it has never relaxed its wariness of China's rise.

The complicated feelings could drive India to make mistakes in its China policy. The Times of India reported recently that Delhi is seeking support from Tokyo during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Japan next week to issue a joint statement about demanding that China abides by the controversial South China Sea arbitration result. The proposal, according to Indian media, was made in retaliation for China blocking India's bid to join the Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG), a symbol of being a nuclear powerhouse.

India knows that it is not yet qualified for membership in the NSG, according to the organization's rules. China's decision was simply a fulfillment of its international duties. It is preposterous for Indian media and government to scapegoat China as a troublemaker, and seek revenge by making more troubles.

As a non-claimant to the South China Sea and an outsider that has no traditional influence on the region, India has been paying keen attention to any activity, because the country has adopted a "Look East" foreign policy since Modi took office. India, however, seems to have overestimated its leverage in the region. Although China's major rivals in the dispute, such as the US and Japan, have been trying to draw India into their camp, the country will be likely regarded as having a token role.

India should realize that the South China Sea disputes have passed the pinnacle of tensions after the announcement of the arbitration result, and some involved parties have begun to reflect on their old way of addressing the disputes - creating conflicts without seeking productive bilateral negotiations. The Philippines, once a major aggressive claimant against China, has restored its relationship with China.

India's proposal to make new waves in the South China Sea first came to Singapore last month, but Singapore, a master of the rebalancing strategy, snubbed it. The rejection shows India lacks legitimacy and leadership in making new waves in the South China Sea. India should beware of the possibility that by becoming embroiled in the disputes, it might end up being a pawn of the US and suffer great losses, especially in terms of business and trade, from China. India and China should put more efforts into resolving problems like the imbalance of their trade ties. India won't benefit much by balancing China through Japan. It will only lead to more mistrust between New Delhi and Beijing.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1016712.shtml
 
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The tribunal ruling that claims of China are in violation validates the US and world opinion. This ruling will definitely presents China as aggressor and its activities in South China Sea as illegal. This puts China in dilemma, to change its policies or continue with its activities in south china sea in open defiance of the international ruling. This ruling presents a good opportunity for India and other Asean countries to engage China for peaceful resolution of disputes between all claimants. China on its part will have to play a major role in not escalating tensions in the region.
 
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confusing article , which clearly states that now china is getting worried.......previously India do not give reply to china , and now ....It is start giving , Major Tension of China is Japan & India getting closer.
 
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It will take some time for new regional realignments to become more visible. It will also become clear to what extent India has given up its strategic autonomy.
Why is India so eager to make a statement about SCS when Philippines, the aggrieved party in the Hague ruling, is willing to back off and give a chance to multi-dimensional engagement with China. And why is the US - itself in an increasingly interlocked business relation with China - trying to sabotage Chinese relations with its neighbors. Philippines seems to have dropped off from the US's Philippines-India-Japan axis to confront China.
Anyway its good news for Pakistan as it gives it more leverage in its engagement with with China (not that friends should think of each other in such terms, but still)
 
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It will take some time for new regional realignments to become more visible. It will also become clear to what extent India has given up its strategic autonomy.
Why is India so eager to make a statement about SCS when Philippines, the aggrieved party in the Hague ruling, is willing to back off and give a chance to multi-dimensional engagement with China. And why is the US - itself in an increasingly interlocked business relation with China - trying to sabotage Chinese relations with its neighbors. Philippines seems to have dropped off from the US's Philippines-India-Japan axis to confront China.
Anyway its good news for Pakistan as it gives it more leverage in its engagement with with China (not that friends should think of each other in such terms, but still)
Where were you living? Under the rocks?
 
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The tribunal ruling that claims of China are in violation validates the US and world opinion. This ruling will definitely presents China as aggressor and its activities in South China Sea as illegal. This puts China in dilemma, to change its policies or continue with its activities in south china sea in open defiance of the international ruling. This ruling presents a good opportunity for India and other Asean countries to engage China for peaceful resolution of disputes between all claimants. China on its part will have to play a major role in not escalating tensions in the region.

Philippines and Malaysia already withdraw and restoring their ties with China .
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China militarize the islands . where is usa ? Oh on a retreat from Asia .
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What will japan do ? Nothing .
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South China sea conflict is dead now .india may jump as much as she want but eventually they will accepted the ground realities . ( just like the claimants).
 
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For starters,
1. China blocked NSG
2. China blocked Masood Azhar
3. China needling in AP
4. China passed CPEC through disputed Kashmir without bringing India into table

Now India is playing the same Game in SCS.
Hence the title "India overestimates its South China Sea leverage".
 
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Philippines and Malaysia already withdraw and restoring their ties with China .
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China militarize the islands . where is usa ? Oh on a retreat from Asia .
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What will japan do ? Nothing .
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South China sea conflict is dead now .india may jump as much as she want but eventually they will accepted the ground realities . ( just like the claimants).

China with its pragmatic attitude will work with its smaller neighbours in resolving the dispute. If past is any indication they are very practical when it comes to economy and trade.There is too much at stake to jeopardise its relations with Asean countries. Malaysia worked it out with China. Other nations will follow. China is investing heavily in their economies for this cooperation. China has the money to placate them and work out an amicable solution. India has no leverage to swing the process to its liking. China is a new dragon and every day we are seeing its tentacles stretch far and wide. That is the new reality. Japan and US are showing restraint as they are mired in their own domestic issues.
 
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