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India needs to step in
By Sami Al Faraj
The Arab Spring so far has hit countries with medium to low Indian population. The only exception was Bahrain, a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), where the protests have been brought under control. Some GCC states like Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman have prevented the Arab Spring from being successful in their territory, but there are signs that the GCC states are moving towards a critical phase. Their fate will be determined by the sectarian issue, external influence and domestic political repression.
Five years ago, the world did not know much about Shia-Sunni conflict in West Asia. Today, sectarian conflict is among the key factors troubling the GCC states. At stake for India in the GCC states are nearly two-thirds of its total energy imports and four million expatriates, who contribute approximately $35 billion to the Indian economy annually, in foreign remittances. According to estimates, India's oil import from the GCC states is expected to increase to 91.6 per cent by 2020. Given India's close economic and civilisational ties, New Delhi has to consider stepping in to manage the pressure of national political reform and international rivalry in the Gulf region. India being the largest democracy not just in Asia but in the entire world, the Arabs have a lot to learn from it.
To begin with, India can share its rich democratic heritage with the Arabs. Indian democracy has not been hindered by poverty or other disabling factors. Resilience of Indian democracy is of great interest to the Arab society. The Arab Spring has resulted from the search for dignity, which democracy alone can guarantee.
Owing to the absence of democracy, only those organisations with traditional underground networks like the Islamic Brotherhood have survived in the Arab world. The Brotherhood now has the entire political arena to itself, as other players had never prepared for this day. Given the chance to dominate the polity, the Brotherhood will most likely not change its orthodox ways. They have already started enforcing their key principles, like insistence on using the veil. But Salafist extremism is just one dimension of the problem. The other one is Iranian intervention in the region.
Turkey, the key regional power, has been mediating in the tense exchange between the Iranians and the Arabs. But Turkey is not able to handle Iran effectively. Despite Iranian provocation, people in eastern Saudi Arabia have behaved responsibly because they know that they are sitting on the largest reserve of crude oil in the world. In Kuwait, we found out a secret Iranian cell, which had plans to sabotage two oil producing centres. We have given Iranians the evidence.
India can convince Iran to step back from brinkmanship. It has engaged Iran very well and we want to utilise this channel for an Iran-GCC dialogue. India has created a dialogue mechanism with Iran over Afghanistan, where all difficult issues are discussed. We are requesting India to use that platform to take up the issue of Arab-Iran relations. India must understand that, as the great power closest to GCC, it is within its rights to intervene in the Iranian nuclear stand-off, for the sake of non-nuclear Arab states. Iranian intransigence is forcing countries like Saudi Arabia to go nuclear. We must stop this chain of nuclearisation.
India's silence is pushing the GCC states into the hands of the Chinese and if India stays uninvolved, then one day you will see the Chinese shadow in the Gulf as well.
SOURCE :http://week.manoramaonline.com/cgi-bin/MMOnline.dll/portal/ep/theWeekContent.do?tabId=13&contentId=10651417&programId=10350717&categoryId=-169181&BV_ID=@@@
By Sami Al Faraj
The Arab Spring so far has hit countries with medium to low Indian population. The only exception was Bahrain, a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), where the protests have been brought under control. Some GCC states like Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman have prevented the Arab Spring from being successful in their territory, but there are signs that the GCC states are moving towards a critical phase. Their fate will be determined by the sectarian issue, external influence and domestic political repression.
Five years ago, the world did not know much about Shia-Sunni conflict in West Asia. Today, sectarian conflict is among the key factors troubling the GCC states. At stake for India in the GCC states are nearly two-thirds of its total energy imports and four million expatriates, who contribute approximately $35 billion to the Indian economy annually, in foreign remittances. According to estimates, India's oil import from the GCC states is expected to increase to 91.6 per cent by 2020. Given India's close economic and civilisational ties, New Delhi has to consider stepping in to manage the pressure of national political reform and international rivalry in the Gulf region. India being the largest democracy not just in Asia but in the entire world, the Arabs have a lot to learn from it.
To begin with, India can share its rich democratic heritage with the Arabs. Indian democracy has not been hindered by poverty or other disabling factors. Resilience of Indian democracy is of great interest to the Arab society. The Arab Spring has resulted from the search for dignity, which democracy alone can guarantee.
Owing to the absence of democracy, only those organisations with traditional underground networks like the Islamic Brotherhood have survived in the Arab world. The Brotherhood now has the entire political arena to itself, as other players had never prepared for this day. Given the chance to dominate the polity, the Brotherhood will most likely not change its orthodox ways. They have already started enforcing their key principles, like insistence on using the veil. But Salafist extremism is just one dimension of the problem. The other one is Iranian intervention in the region.
Turkey, the key regional power, has been mediating in the tense exchange between the Iranians and the Arabs. But Turkey is not able to handle Iran effectively. Despite Iranian provocation, people in eastern Saudi Arabia have behaved responsibly because they know that they are sitting on the largest reserve of crude oil in the world. In Kuwait, we found out a secret Iranian cell, which had plans to sabotage two oil producing centres. We have given Iranians the evidence.
India can convince Iran to step back from brinkmanship. It has engaged Iran very well and we want to utilise this channel for an Iran-GCC dialogue. India has created a dialogue mechanism with Iran over Afghanistan, where all difficult issues are discussed. We are requesting India to use that platform to take up the issue of Arab-Iran relations. India must understand that, as the great power closest to GCC, it is within its rights to intervene in the Iranian nuclear stand-off, for the sake of non-nuclear Arab states. Iranian intransigence is forcing countries like Saudi Arabia to go nuclear. We must stop this chain of nuclearisation.
India's silence is pushing the GCC states into the hands of the Chinese and if India stays uninvolved, then one day you will see the Chinese shadow in the Gulf as well.
SOURCE :http://week.manoramaonline.com/cgi-bin/MMOnline.dll/portal/ep/theWeekContent.do?tabId=13&contentId=10651417&programId=10350717&categoryId=-169181&BV_ID=@@@
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