No one is irreplaceable - other nations and companies will step in, and there will be a minor blip for a year or so as the transition occurs.
such as?
software depth is not something you develop in one year or two years. Insiders know how deep this dependency is. The issue is not pure software technology. The real dependency is the extent of specific application and business process knowledge that has been outsourced in such massive numbers to the Indian 'majors' as they are called, that locals in the US simply do not hope to ever bring back.
Secondly to 'bring' that knowledge back there are only two strategies: 1) hire a lot of locals and have them trained over time. You can imaging what this would cost if a company is to replace software talent from India even at a 3:1 ratio. 2) Complete create new software systems using local talent - this actually may be the better long term option BUT it is a non-starter for one reason: good software engineers want to work in Silicon Valley for innovative product startups, NOT developing banking systems!
The only concern Indian IT business had was if China would somehow manage to teach English to its software millions. Over the past 15 years, China has tried real hard and failed. Meanwhile Indian companies have diversified into Europe where I understand now 30 to 40% revenues come from; plus some of these companies are buying up American companies with their cash.
Finally the concept of 'Indian IT' has changed. Would you consider IBM, Accenture, CSC et al to be part of American or Indian IT sector? Yet these companies all have more than half their staff in India. I mean in tens of thousands.
It won't happen with a jerk. We will start transitioning by building capacity in say BD, Nepal, Srilanka, Pakistan, Vietnam, Philippines. First you would see some minor accounts shifting but later after a year or two the big accounts will start shifting.
US companies may incur some extra cost but the cost to Indian economy would be ruinous.
Now I am not being a jerk and saying we will do it out of pure spite! My comment was in response to another Poster threatening India with consequences.
In reality India - US have a thriving partnership which going to grow further as our strategic goals align.
All these countries put together cannot come up with the scale of one Indian major in software. Secondly, Pakistan is not trusted; BD & Nepal do not have IBM AT'16s yet; Srilanka sends its best and brightest to South India colleges; Philippines has been and tried and failed in software, but have indeed developed excellent call centers (which India is happy to give up due to low value). That leaves Vietnam - completely unknown as yet (at least to me...and I happen to be aware of almost ALL major IT deals made in the US).
If India gets its act straight, they have a very real chance of true partnership with the US. The Americans, the Indians and the world deserve that. But it requires India to clean up its act and growing up fast.
I am vehemently against US companies laying off Americans for cheap labor found over-seas be in India or elsewhere but the crux of the matter is for American companies to remain competitive they need to lower costs and hiring Indians is extremely cost-effective. If one company starts hiring Indians then others have to follow suit. It's like a Domino.
One option is to pass a regulation which prevents American corporates from hiring Indians at the lower spectrum of skill. High Skill jobs of which we have a shortage of like Doctors, PHDs, Professors, Management etc are fine by my book. The problem is that every corporate which oppose such measure and since collectively they wield a lot of influence in Senate and Congress such a measure will never pass unless an executive order is given.
It is very difficult to find anyone that will say otherwise. Workers are workers and we all have to slog to make a living. So anytime anyone loses their job, it is impossible to justify that for any reason.
That said it always surprises me to see how many otherwise reasonable and truth-seeking (fellow) Americans fail to look at data before making such statements. If you have a cut in you toe will you put a bandaid there or treat your hair follicle?
America lost its manufacturing base - jobs, capital and intellectual property in massive numbers to China. That is where the malaise is. A good software engineer (not documentation specialiast, not QA tester, not requirements associate...) is HARD to find in the USA. They are all either working for startups for options or located in Israel, India and Russia. There are many many in China too but they have been corralled for cyber warfare by that country.
The place to start is to bring back manufacturing into the USA. Or atleast start diversifying out of China.
If you don't believe that just look at the state of demand and supply for goods from automobile, steel, paper goods, rubber industries in the US. If you see the ratio of demand vs source of supply for these goods (I am talking goods, not raw material) you will realize how many tens of millions of jobs have been lost. And you are worried about 65000 H1b visas! Do you realize H1B visa holders work IN The US and the government at least get taxes from them besides fees. Whereas in the industries I mentioned, the job loss is 100+ times that plus complete loss tax revenue PLUS flight of capital! Come on!