India--Iran--Afghanistan Finalise Agreement on Chabahar TRANSPORT and TRANSIT pact

[Stephen Cohen]

There is no smart way with all due respect. If you have some interest in history - I would like for you to consider US-Mexico relations. How Mexico was systematically undermined, it's waterways diverted, industries destroyed all so that it remains the moon to USA's sun. Well US had it going good for a long time but ultimately it has come back to haunt them

All the money, power and mightiest military mankind has ever known can't save kids of US from the menace of drugs. We talk about war on terror but before that there was a war on drugs which failed as a result of which US has the highest per capita prison population. Drugs finance the gun culture leading to thousands of dead each year.

Even CIA has given up on fighting the war and stopping the drug supply from across the borders. Consensus among all enforcement agencies including DEA is that there is too much money in it to stop. So they instead try to manage and direct the flow. They try to cultivate relationship with cartels so that flow can be directed. What a mess!

Point of this rant is that even US which supposedly took the smart way ended up with thousands dead every year and hundreds of thousands of lives ruined. So there you go Sir

P.S. Plans are excellent on paper but law of unintended consequences is a bit ch!

I believe Mexico is the Luckiest country in the world

They are doing quite well; One Trillion economy ; 10000 Dollars per capita income

No security threat

The US drug menace is due to their dysfunctional family life

 

[Dash]

The issue with trying to make a hellhole from a neighbour is just that; they are your neighbour and the spillover will happen.
Moreover, there are smart ways to make a place a hellhole and then there is the route Pakistan took


As mentioned to @Spectre , the issue is not the idea of what needed to be done but the bumbling about in its execution.
One has to remember, the idea was to get Haqqani in power at the end of the war..but the bloody early 90's in Afghanistan are testament to how well that plan worked out.
Then the Taliban happened and everyone was left thinking what to do next.

With Haqqani, there was direct influence; the Taliban were like a mischievous child you had to try and coax and prod into doing anything.
The most powerful years of the ISI were in the 90's, and were also the most non-cohesive and disjointed. You had various sections playing their own game without any semblance of what was to be done on a strategic level.

So the idea to get Haqannis to power was well thought out when ISI was in its peak. And if it was then needless to say it was a poor plan.

The ramifications of a post war Afghanistan was not that mischievous that a powerful spy agency would miss out in its policies without having a proper back up plan.
Or so did they thought completely biased over their Pastun links.

Hard to guess.

 

[SQ8]

So the idea to get Haqannis to power was well thought out when ISI was in its peak. And if it was then needless to say it was a poor plan.

The ramifications of a post war Afghanistan was not that mischievous that a powerful spy agency would miss out in its policies without having a proper back up plan.
Or so did they thought completely biased over their Pastun links.

Hard to guess.

You clearly did not read my post. Read again before commenting on this.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

So the idea to get Haqannis to power was well thought out when ISI was in its peak. And if it was then needless to say it was a poor plan.

The ramifications of a post war Afghanistan was not that mischievous that a powerful spy agency would miss out in its policies without having a proper back up plan.
Or so did they thought completely biased over their Pastun links.

Hard to guess.

Everything was going well for the Taliban and the ISI but then 9 /11 happened

And the rest is history

At least now US will Never allow the Pre 9 /11 situation to return

 

[Spectre]

I believe Mexico is the Luckiest country in the world

They are doing quite well; One Trillion economy ; 10000 Dollars per capita income

No security threat

The US drug menace is due to their dysfunctional family life

You must visit Juarez if you get a chance. It makes Gaza look like Switzerland. Apart from pockets of prosperity confined to uber rich and posh enclaves, mexico is hell hole.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-33671636

The war on drugs is a consequence of not knowing them. Drugs arent all financing the prison culture, a lot of it has to do with ridiculous laws and a systematic targeting of poor communities which is also evident if you go into history.
The problem lies with the overstretch of any strategy. Mexico needed to be kept down because history shows that it can rally and become a threat to the US, the same goes for Afghanistan.

A stable Afghanistan under anyone else other than religious extremists is one that is lost in its Pushtoon unity ideals and a threat to Pakistan. Better to keep that place a hell hole than a consistently hostile nation. There is greater hostility in Afghanistan to Pakistan from our inception than there ever was or will be from India.
To that end, Afghanistan can remain as it is for eternity; it is still better off for Pakistan.

I ain't debating the need, in the end justification can be found for round about anything so it really doesn't matter. I am just cautioning against the millions of consistently shifting variables which can't all be possibly be predicted and accounted for.

As of now Afghanistan in chaos is not working out for Pakistan clearly, now with the benefit of hindsight you might say what if changed X in the equation to Y which in this case means ISI getting their man on the top - it might turn out well or it might have turned out even worse. That is the result of playing with forces one can't possibly control. Sometimes people forget that this isn't a strategy session or a computer sandbox.

Oscar this commentary isn't directed towards Pakistan specifically, I would say the same to folks in Foggy Bottom, Kremilin, Zhongnanhai or Raisina Hills

 

[danger007]

There is no alternate of CPEC.

Yes Pakistan don't have alternative... at least this project serves our interests... unlike CPEC more likely to have Chinese investment Chinese work force... anyways all hail to CPEC can you please stop boasting about CPEC in this thread...

 

[Stephen Cohen]

You must visit Juarez if you get a chance. It makes Gaza look like Switzerland. Apart from pockets of prosperity confined to uber rich and posh enclaves, mexico is hell hole.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-33671636



I ain't debating the need, in the end justification can be found for round about anything so it really doesn't matter. I am just cautioning against the millions of consistently shifting variables which can't all be possibly be predicted and accounted for.

As of now Afghanistan in chaos is not working out for Pakistan clearly, now with the benefit of hindsight you might say what if changed X in the equation to Y which in this case means ISI getting their man on the top - it might turn out well or it might have turned out even worse. That is the result of playing with forces one can't possibly control. Sometimes people forget that this isn't a strategy session or a computer sandbox.

Oscar this commentary isn't directed towards Pakistan specifically, I would say the same to folks in Foggy Bottom, Kremilin, Zhongnanhai or Raisina Hills

What happens to Afghanistan in future depends totally on USA

How much force and money it wants to use to keep the Taliban from coming back

 

[SQ8]

You must visit Juarez if you get a chance. It makes Gaza look like Switzerland. Apart from pockets of prosperity confined to uber rich and posh enclaves, mexico is hell hole.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-33671636



I ain't debating the need, in the end justification can be found for round about anything so it really doesn't matter. I am just cautioning against the millions of consistently shifting variables which can't all be possibly be predicted and accounted for.

As of now Afghanistan in chaos is not working out for Pakistan clearly, now with the benefit of hindsight you might say what if changed X in the equation to Y which in this case means ISI getting their man on the top - it might turn out well or it might have turned out even worse. That is the result of playing with forces one can't possibly control. Sometimes people forget that this isn't a strategy session or a computer sandbox.

Oscar this commentary isn't directed towards Pakistan specifically, I would say the same to folks in Foggy Bottom, Kremilin, Zhongnanhai or Raisina Hills

What you are talking about is the lay of the world. It never is a perfect simulation or a positive simulation that works.
Be it the IPKF or the UN mission to somalia, good intentions, bad intentions or any intentions.

 

[muhammadali233]

You are exaggerating CPEC like your establishment.

China can utilize Pakistani human resources and can gain foot hold in Indian sub continent.

Regarding oil tankers , yes China can get through this corridor but the world is moving in the direction of electric vehicles and China is investing heavily in this technology.

Well I would agree with you but i am afraid then we'd both be wrong.

 

[That Guy]

Afghanistan is war ravaged country. Do not expect huge volumes of trade to justify the Gwadar port.

The Wakhan corridor gets you to Tajikistan. The largest and richest Central Asian Republics are Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan - none of which share a land border with Tajikistan.

The whole region needs to be stable if any reasonable amount of trade with Central Asia needs to develop

Pakistan's relationship with Tajikistan is based on access to the rest of Central Asia. Take a look at this map route I made. It's rough, but it should answer most of your questions...

Keep in mind, this doesn't take terrain into account, and is meant as a rough idea as to the possible trade routes.

Really, the only region that needs to be stable is the Wakhan corridor. The rest of Afghanistan could be the doorway to hell, but as long as the Wakhan corridor is relatively stable (which Pakistan can achieve with both China's and Tajikistan's help), then the routes are relatively safe.

@Oscar @Abu Zolfiqar @WebMaster @Horus @Windjammer @TankMan @Akheilos @WAJsal @waz @MastanKhan @cb4

Thoughts? Did I get it right, or am I completely wrong?

 

[VCheng]

Access to Central Asia? Please look at this map too:

PS: Please note that Earth's geography has not changed much in the last 6 years.

 

[That Guy]

Access to Central Asia? Please look at this map too:

View attachment 301063

It's not just access to sea that's important, as always you post half truths and present them as whole. Not to mention that all those charts and maps you've posted are all at least 6 years old, with this one being 11.

[Edit]: In fact, this map is completely irrelevant, simply because access to central Afghanistan is no longer needed, it's not even being considered.

 

[VCheng]

It remains a fact that the CAS states will use their well-developed links to Russia for reaching Europe, and develop new links to Iran and China as their trade expands. Looking at a map will help, probably. Reaching the sea is only one aspect, obviously.

As for Gawadar itself, this paragraph remains as relevant today as when it was written:

 

[That Guy]

It remains a fact that the CAS states will use their well-developed links to Russia for reaching Europe, and develop new links to Iran and China as their trade expands. Looking at a map will help, probably. Reaching the sea is only one aspect, obviously.

As for Gawadar itself, this paragraph remains as relevant today as when it was written:

View attachment 301066

Yeah, thanks for posting ANOTHER OUT OF DATE POST, WHICH DOESN'T EVEN CORRELATE WITH YOUR POINT. Why the mods are tolerating you, is beyond me, because now you're just plan posting low quality comments.

Where the hell did I say that CAS states would use Gwadar to reach Europe? Just like your comment, that would be the pinnacle of stupidity. Not only are you EXTREMELY poor at geography, but your sense of logic is completely gone.

LOOK AT THEMAP...

Where the hell would anyone, myself included, say that CAS would use Gwadar to reach Europe? In fact, I have said that, AND EVEN SHOWED IT ON THIS VERY MAP, Pakistan would allow central Asian nations access to Gwadar, in exchange for Pakistan gaining a route through to CAS, Russia, and Europe.

Gwadar allows CAS to reach Africa and the middle east far easier. Iran's Chabahar port is still FAR FAR behind in development.

LEARN HOW MAPS AND LOGIC WORK!

From now on, every time you post a low quality reply or comment, I will be givng you a negative rating, considering this your only warning.

 

[sankar]

another useless comment

You cannot give anything useful ever ??