India holds all the cards in the Indo-Pacific

[Cobra Arbok]

Asian Angle by Rupakjyoti Borah

Not the US, not China. India holds the cards in the Indo-Pacific

• India has ties with all the major regional players and the heft to alter the balance of power, if it so wished
• But a long tradition of ‘strategic autonomy’ is likely to see the status quo maintained, unless Beijing provokes change

Rupakjyoti Borah

Published: 7:00am, 12 Jul, 2019

Updated: 7:04am, 12 Jul, 2019


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Russia's President Vladimir Putin (left), India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (centre) and China's President Xi Jinping meet on the sidelines of G20 summit in Osaka. Photo: Reuter
At last month’s
G20
summit in Osaka,
India
once again took part in two trilateral meetings – one with
Japan
and the
United States
, the other with
China
and
Russia
.
The first focused on “how the three countries can work together towards an open, stable and rule-based Indo-Pacific region”, according to India’s External Affairs Ministry. The latter, meanwhile, provided an important opportunity for “the world’s leading economies [to have an] exchange of views … on the economic, political and security situation of the world”, according to Indian Prime Minister
Narendra Modi
.

US President Donald Trump, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Modi before their G20 meeting. Photo: AP
Share:Indo-Pacific
region that is in flux.
In the recent past, the US has looked to counterbalance China’s rising influence in the region. But President
Donald Trump
’s unpredictability and diplomatic moves with
North Korean
strongman
Kim Jong-un
have upset the calculations of the leaders of China,
South Korea
and America’s closest ally in the region, Japan. This also extends to India, which is not sure how Trump will deal with China in the long-run.
India could well prove to be a “swing state” in these rapidly evolving diplomatic sweepstakes. As New Delhi’s economic and military muscle increases, it could either tilt the regional balance of power in favour of the US and its allies or choose to side with Russia and China – possibly creating a new multipolar order. India is also a major arms buyer and this is one card which it could play when dealing with countries like the US and Russia.

Xi says China, Russia and India should take ‘global responsibility’
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Delhi has its own reasons for maintaining close communication with the US, Japan, Russia and China. The Modi government wants to spur further economic growth and needs strong ties with its major trading partners to do so.

Read more


The difference between Indo Pacific and Asia-Pacific? The US and China

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The difference between Indo Pacific and Asia-Pacific? The US and China

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China seeks Indian and Russian backing for ‘new’ trading system

Relations with Washington have been bumpy, to say the least, despite India inching closer in recent times with the signing of a memorandum of understanding on logistics exchange and its participation in the Malabar naval exercises with the US and Japan.

India also stopped importing oil from
Iran
after Washington withdrew all sanction exemptions on May 2. This was a big turnaround for a country that had been one of Iran’s biggest oil buyers, importing 23.5 million tonnes over the past year.

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Trumps meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un have upset regional leader’s calculations. Photo: Reuters
Share:Shinzo Abe
noting many times that “the India-Japan relationship has the greatest potential of any bilateral relationship in the world”.
Did Japan and India just launch a counter to China’s Belt and Road?
The pair’s economic ties have been slow to catch up, though. Bilateral trade between the two was a measly US$15.71 billion in 2017-18, as compared with US$84.44 billion for trade between India and China over the same period.

Russia, that other big regional player, is still a major defence supplier for India and the two have been working on
a deal for a delivery of Russian-made S-400 missiles
, putting Delhi back in Washington’s cross hairs. Moscow also has influence in countries like Iran – where India has economic interests in the form of investments in places like the port of Chabahar – and has increasingly been making overtures towards
Pakistan
, India’s neighbour and longstanding rival.
When it comes to China, India has kept its channels of communication open as seen with the informal summit between Modi and Chinese President
Xi Jinping
that was held in Wuhan last year. The two countries are also partners in organisations such as the
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
and the economic bloc
BRICS
, alongside Brazil, Russia and South Africa.

Leaders of the BRICS countries at the G20 summit in Japan. Photo: AP
Share:unresolved border issues
, however, and India is also wary of China’s ties with Pakistan. Earlier this year, China
withdrew its opposition
to Pakistan-based terror chief Masood Azhar being sanctioned by the
United Nations
, which could signal a softening of its position on the issue of Pakistan-based terror outfits and their leaders.
India, with its huge population, military capabilities and strong government, could significantly alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region. However, given its tradition of strategic autonomy, Delhi is unlikely to commit to any one power bloc, even as it grows incrementally closer to the US and Japan.

That being said, it is also unlikely to give up its traditional ties with Russia. So whether India will act as a “swing state” in the Indo-Pacific may well depend on how its relations with China unfold.

Rupakjyoti Borah is a research fellow with the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies in Tokyo, Japan

 

[Cobra Arbok]

This is a good article that makes some excellent points. I really like how he described India as a "swing state," because that is what India essentially is. India is one of the only major world powers that has not completely fallen into one camp. Although that has brought challenges of its own, it gives India leverage over all the other major powers in the Indo-Pacific (Russia, India, China) as all of their strategies to dominate Eurasia revolve around securing India's support in the Indo-Pacific in some way. And going by the "swing state" example, India can be compared to Florida. It is clear that the direction India takes with its foreign policy will determine the geopolitical future of Eurasia

 

[Lincoln]

This is a good article that makes some excellent points. I really like how he described India as a "swing state," because that is what India essentially is. India is one of the only major world powers that has not completely fallen into one camp. Although that has brought challenges of its own, it gives India leverage over all the other major powers in the Indo-Pacific (Russia, India, China) as all of their strategies to dominate Eurasia revolve around securing India's support in the Indo-Pacific in some way. And going by the "swing state" example, India can be compared to Florida. It is clear that the direction India takes with its foreign policy will determine the geopolitical future of Eurasia

How much koolaid are you on? Don't other Indians here find this guy's comments as cringe?

India a Major Power.
Modi will decide future of world.
Self licking articles.

Turn it down a notch.

 

[Cobra Arbok]

So many Pakistanis are butthurt that India is a major world power with an important role to play in the recent geopolitical developments of Eurasia. And I never even mentioned Pakistan once in this thread. The obsession and butthurt is evident.

 

[Lincoln]

So many Pakistanis are butthurt that India is a major world power with an important role to play in the recent geopolitical developments of Eurasia. And I never even mentioned Pakistan once in this thread. The obsession and butthurt is evident.

That's cuz it's an indian article, you baboon

 

[Keysersoze]

So many Pakistanis are butthurt that India is a major world power with an important role to play in the recent geopolitical developments of Eurasia. And I never even mentioned Pakistan once in this thread. The obsession and butthurt is evident.

You can't influence America China or Russia....You whined to Sweden and USA when their equipment was used to shoot down Indian planes. China has the most influence in the region.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

So many Pakistanis are butthurt that India is a major world power with an important role to play in the recent geopolitical developments of Eurasia. And I never even mentioned Pakistan once in this thread. The obsession and butthurt is evident.

Where is the independent, genuine, reliable, honest and irrefutable evidence that india is even a remotely powerful nation? The above source is indian so is FAKE NEWS and a propaganda piece.

 

[POTTER]

Bhai Pakistanis to kehty hain kay India Regional power ni hai bulky SUPA POWA hai. Aur Kuch

 

[Cobra Arbok]

Where is the independent, genuine, reliable, honest and irrefutable evidence that india is even a remotely powerful nation? The above source is indian so is FAKE NEWS and a propaganda piece.

The fact that all of the world's major powers want India to fall in their "camps" should be proof enough of India's importance. I have also posted some non-Indian articles saying the same thing(BTW, this was published in the South China Morning Post). I will post them below for your convenience. But talking to you is like talking to a brick wall, you aren't actually interested in facts and evidence, you are only interested in confirming you ignorant, preconceived notions

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/russ...shed-in-global-politics.629326/#post-11662324

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/russia-india-china-share-a-room-with-a-view.629324/#post-11662321

 

[Lincoln]

The fact that all of the world's major powers want India to fall in their "camps" should be proof enough of India's importance. I have also posted some non-Indian articles saying the same thing(BTW, this was published in the South China Morning Post). I will post them below for your convenience. But talking to you is like talking to a brick wall, you aren't actually interested in facts and evidence, you are only interested in confirming you ignorant, preconceived notions

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/russ...shed-in-global-politics.629326/#post-11662324

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/russia-india-china-share-a-room-with-a-view.629324/#post-11662321

India is playing to its strenh don't worry, I will make a thread and you will see what Pakistan has that India doesn't.

The fact that all of the world's major powers want India to fall in their "camps" should be proof enough of India's importance. I have also posted some non-Indian articles saying the same thing(BTW, this was published in the South China Morning Post). I will post them below for your convenience. But talking to you is like talking to a brick wall, you aren't actually interested in facts and evidence, you are only interested in confirming you ignorant, preconceived notions

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/russ...shed-in-global-politics.629326/#post-11662324

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/russia-india-china-share-a-room-with-a-view.629324/#post-11662321

Also, author is Indian so...

 

[Mirza Jatt]

I think you should simply post the articles for the interested ones to read and use their brains. If choosing to be live that 'India is not a regional power' gives them a mental satisfaction, you should actually encourage that.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

The fact that all of the world's major powers want India to fall in their "camps" should be proof enough of India's importance. I have also posted some non-Indian articles saying the same thing(BTW, this was published in the South China Morning Post). I will post them below for your convenience. But talking to you is like talking to a brick wall, you aren't actually interested in facts and evidence, you are only interested in confirming you ignorant, preconceived notions

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/russ...shed-in-global-politics.629326/#post-11662324

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/russia-india-china-share-a-room-with-a-view.629324/#post-11662321

The above are not facts but opinion pieces by authors who are not reputable analysts. In order to confirm your original assertions of india being a powerful nation, analysts from the world's best and most powerful think tanks like the CATO institute, Royal Institute for International Affairs or the Tavistick Institute would need to confirm it.

 

[Lincoln]

I think you should simply post the articles for the interested ones to read and use their brains. If choosing to be live that 'India is not a regional power' gives them a mental satisfaction, you should actually encourage that.

I just find his comments funny. I don't have issues with articles persay, but his after comments and how he makes mountains out of peanuts. He is not the only one I criticize for this, I criticize pakistanis too.

I don't get how Pakistan or India are remotely regional powers yet. I always said, if you want to see which countries are regional powers, look no further than Venezuela. Anything else in the immediate region doesn't prove anything because it's a stake for all.

Even the extremist viewers of TOI know that India is not a major power, and that's nothing to be offended about. Just pointing out so this guy can drink a little less koolaid.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

I think you should simply post the articles for the interested ones to read and use their brains. If choosing to be live that 'India is not a regional power' gives them a mental satisfaction, you should actually encourage that.

Here is evidence to the contrary:

https://www.mic.com/articles/89515/...rty-in-india-can-their-new-leader-change-that

https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/half-world-s-poor-live-just-5-countries

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/a-third-of-the-worlds-poor-live-in-india-says-un-45376


The only power india has is all talk and hot air. Nothing else. Just millions of indians on the net and everywhere else continuously repeating that india is a superpower. Nothing more.

 

[mudas777]

So many Pakistanis are butthurt that India is a major world power with an important role to play in the recent geopolitical developments of Eurasia. And I never even mentioned Pakistan once in this thread. The obsession and butthurt is evident.

Lol its not a butt hurt we are your burnol to rub into back side as front side of your guys doesn't works. India is no super power far from it so get off from your self delusion and come down from your high horse and do the donkey work which you guys are good at. How many shoes you licked in the past to isolate us and cage us, one whack from us on your heads in Balakot have put you guys in your place. We never claimed or wish for a super power status all we want is a stable prosperous Pakistan who is at ease with her self and have peace on the borders and its not too much to ask.

Cards what cards India have got showing up in some photo shots doesn't means anything in itself. Trying to intimidate Maldives or muscling on smaller neighbour like Burma doesn't elevate India to decide the future of the Eurasia. India and Indians are all fart and baloney at best and only thing you guys are good at is making money and licking arses I will give you that.