India Delays Fighter Jet Deal (MRCA)

[TechLahore]

A few questions:

1) How does this impact IAF squadron strength assuming that there is an 18-24 month delay in MRCA acquisition. I understand that with the Mig-21 phase out, there was an issue with numbers.

2) Does it really make sense to complete induction of any of the jets being considered for the MRCA project as late as 2024? (again, adding 2 years to the original date) Most of these planes by that time will be 30-50 years old as far as the base design goes. If these planes serve for 30 years, we're talking potentially an 80 year old design (in the case of the SH) by the time the jets retire. Since India will have access to the PAK-FA, why doesn't the IAF use this money to double up on that option?

3) How does this impact Pakistan's FC-20 plans? Will we stick to the original timeline or delay until we know the result of the MRCA competition? Also, in terms of strength, I would assume that we will now have at least 36 FC-20s - and probably more - before a single MRCA is inducted into the IAF. Is that correct?

 

[jagjitnatt]

A few questions:

1) How does this impact IAF squadron strength assuming that there is an 18-24 month delay in MRCA acquisition. I understand that with the Mig-21 phase out, there was an issue with numbers.

Yes, It is going to impact. This is the reason Bisons will not be retired before 2025. The other Mig21s will start retiring from 2017, when LCA will be in full production. LCA will replace the Mig21s. MRCA is to replace the Mig27.

2) Does it really make sense to complete induction of any of the jets being considered for the MRCA project as late as 2024? (again, adding 2 years to the original date) Most of these planes by that time will be 30-50 years old as far as the base design goes. If these planes serve for 30 years, we're talking potentially an 80 year old design (in the case of the SH) by the time the jets retire. Since India will have access to the PAK-FA, why doesn't the IAF use this money to double up on that option?

Actually it still makes sense because we won't be going in for the older jets like F16. Other than F16 none of the jets are old.
Gripen NG - development stages
F16IN - not developed yet (although old platform)
EF2000 - 2003
F18 SH - introduced in 1999
Rafale - 2000
Mig35 - development stages

So all the planes are new except for F16. These planes are still being bought and the host countries haven't inducted them in quantity yet. They are here to stay till 2040-2050 at least after upgrades.

3) How does this impact Pakistan's FC-20 plans? Will we stick to the original timeline or delay until we know the result of the MRCA competition? Also, in terms of strength, I would assume that we will now have at least 36 FC-20s - and probably more - before a single MRCA is inducted into the IAF. Is that correct?

I think PAF will follow its own schedule because it should not try to compete with India now. India is going through a massive modernization program and doing it at the same scale in Pak is not possible today.

Pak should get the FC1, FC20 soon. They should adopt new strategies to defend themselves. Quantity and Quality wise comparison with India will not be possible in future.

 

[wangrong]

明日复明日，
明日何其多！
我生待明日，
万事成蹉跎。

Tomorrow upon tomorrow,
So many tomorrows have gone!
If we only eye on tomorrow,
Nothing in the world can be done!

 

[Bang Galore]

A few questions:

1) How does this impact IAF squadron strength assuming that there is an 18-24 month delay in MRCA acquisition. I understand that with the Mig-21 phase out, there was an issue with numbers.

2) Does it really make sense to complete induction of any of the jets being considered for the MRCA project as late as 2024? (again, adding 2 years to the original date) Most of these planes by that time will be 30-50 years old as far as the base design goes. If these planes serve for 30 years, we're talking potentially an 80 year old design (in the case of the SH) by the time the jets retire. Since India will have access to the PAK-FA, why doesn't the IAF use this money to double up on that option?

Bloody good question ! I have not understood why they are even considering the F-16 which the Americans themselves are not buying anymore and which is sought to be replaced by the F-35 starting in a couple of years. I guess they feel that all they need to do is to keep abreast or be somewhat better than the countries of our immediate neighbourhood. Short sighted vision, if you ask me. They must be able to deploy whatever aircraft they select within 6-7 years.

Hopefully they will finalise it this year and not drag it out any more.

 

[karan.1970]

Bloody good question ! I have not understood why they are even considering the F-16 which the Americans themselves are not buying anymore and which is sought to be replaced by the F-35 starting in a couple of years. I guess they feel that all they need to do is to keep abreast or be somewhat better than the countries of our immediate neighbourhood. Short sighted vision, if you ask me. They must be able to deploy whatever aircraft they select within 6-7 years.

Hopefully they will finalise it this year and not drag it out any more.

The F 16 was not that much out of vogue 6 years back when this started. Also out of the 6, this is probably the most proven aircraft and there are chances of experience scoring over freshness at times

But you are right, F 16 just doesnt make sense as a valid choice. I am still leaning towards the super bug (i know am in minority on this forum) and the deal to buy UAE Mirages...

 

[Bang Galore]

I am still leaning towards the super bug (i know am in minority on this forum).....

Make that a minority of two. I lean towards a combination of SH & Gripen, neither of which seems to be the choice of most here.

 

[Imran Khan]

Arre sirji samja karo ... MRCA winner ko prize milega ... jaldi kya hai ?

YAAR PRIZE KAB MILY GA. they waste ten years and they never sold to pakistan many because of this deal now its more and more late french sweden disterb soo much .i think they have to make open policy for every one and never be blackmailed like they done in jf-17 equpment deal.

 

[intelarpit]

YAAR PRIZE KAB MILY GA. they waste ten years and they never sold to pakistan many because of this deal now its more and more late french sweden disterb soo much .i think they have to make open policy for every one and never be blackmailed like they done in jf-17 equpment deal.

Sir ji aap jaldi samajh gaye.....

 

[sivadreams]

Bloody good question ! I have not understood why they are even considering the F-16 which the Americans themselves are not buying anymore and which is sought to be replaced by the F-35 starting in a couple of years. I guess they feel that all they need to do is to keep abreast or be somewhat better than the countries of our immediate neighbourhood. Short sighted vision, if you ask me. They must be able to deploy whatever aircraft they select within 6-7 years.

Hopefully they will finalise it this year and not drag it out any more.

F16 is just to start with, Americans are using it as precursors for JSF. Lockheed is not taking any new orders from outside the partner countries till they roll out the existing requirements. Till that time lockheed wanted to be in the foray to switch to JSF 10yrs from now. Thats what you call foresight from Lockheed. So i will not be surprised in a last minute change that the split deal offer from lockheed will be F16IN and JSF down the line.

Yes all these are speculations as I dont see no other reason why Lockheed is spending so much for the trials with very less prospect.

 

[indushek]

I think the deal going well because it was started in 2004 and was revised as f16 wanted to join the bid in between as per my knowledge right (correct me if i am wrong). If so a 5 year period is natural and the trials are almost complete, the only delay is by Gripen since they could not field NG plane.

 

[jha]

sine LM is trying so hard to woo india even though they also know that they dont have a very good chance to win MRCA..is it possible that something is going on secretly to split the order between 60 f-16 and 60 f-35....this is just my speculation..

 

[gogbot]

I don't know why you guys are making such fuss over this supposed "delay"

The way i see it 4 out of 6 planes are still testing technologies to meet the IAF requirements.
how many of them have already certified their AESA radar.

Only the Americas meet the IAF requirements

two planes the MiG-35 and Griphen NG are still in development

two more planes the Rafale and Euro fighter , have still not fielded their upgraded planes.

I cant belive they set such a foolish deadline in the first place , they clearly needed more time to field and then evaluate the planes.

Now we have this formality where they have to re-submit their bid ,

This can work out to be better , the new bids can also be more cost effective then the last one's.

Given the cutting edge competition so far (F-16 excluded) , A Company now have chance to streak ahead with new bid's.

SAAB for example can now make their price even mroe attractive compared to the others.

Dassault or Eurofighter could reduce their prices overall ( not counting inflation)

 

[harrymohan]

I don't know why you guys are making such fuss over this supposed "delay"

The way i see it 4 out of 6 planes are still testing technologies to meet the IAF requirements.
how many of them have already certified their AESA radar.

Only the Americas meet the IAF requirements

two planes the MiG-35 and Griphen NG are still in development

two more planes the Rafale and Euro fighter , have still not fielded their upgraded planes.

I cant belive they set such a foolish deadline in the first place , they clearly needed more time to field and then evaluate the planes.

Now we have this formality where they have to re-submit their bid ,

This can work out to be better , the new bids can also be more cost effective then the last one's.

Given the cutting edge competition so far (F-16 excluded) , A Company now have chance to streak ahead with new bid's.

SAAB for example can now make their price even mroe attractive compared to the others.

Dassault or Eurofighter could reduce their prices overall ( not counting inflation)

contrary to how world works, warplane prices increase with the time ! somewhere I read like 5-10% pa

 

[faithfulguy]

Stop dreaming.

The MRCA started in 2004. At that time planes in the comprtition were completely different. It was due to international problems that we had to allow change of planes, which caused some delay

The MRCA actually started a lot later. Only RFI was submitted in 2004. US and EF2000 bids were submitted a lot later and were accepted on their request, which delayed it further.
The trials are still not over. How can you expect to select a plane without trials?? It would take a few more months to complete the trials specially after the Gripen NG episode.

A year is not a big deal, since its already known that the first plane will be bought in 2015-2017. The orders would be completed in 2022.

The deal is huge and its all going well as far as I know.

There is nothing to be disappointed about for Indians.

So this would be an LCA equivalent type of delay for purchasing airplane. If 2004 is the year it starts, India can expect to get the planes in 2024? Its sad that India cannot make a purchase properly. Let along build a plane domestically. Someone need to be replaced inside India. I would be ashame instead of defending the delays.

 

[gogbot]

contrary to how world works, warplane prices increase with the time ! somewhere I read like 5-10% pa

that cant be avoided , yes
but i was talking about comparative cost effectiveness.

No point sulking over the increased prices.

We should look at how the company's manage their price comparative competitiveness during the increase.