INS Vikramaditya: Waiting for Gorshkov
Right now, there are 2 major concerns in India. One is slipping timelines. INS Viraat was scheduled to retire in 2009. Its only semi-operational, and nearing the limits of its mechanical life, even as shortages of flyable Sea Harrier fighters are creating issues of their own. Meanwhile, the delivery date for Indias locally-built 37,000t escort carrier project appears to be slipping to 2015 or so. This leaves Indias Navy with a serious scheduling problem, and no significant carrier force.
The other concern involves Vikramadityas 3-fold cost increase, including worries that Russia will raise it rates yet again once India is deeper into the commitment trap. The carrier purchase has now become the subject of high level diplomacy, involving a shipyard that cant even execute on commercial contracts. An agreement in principle reportedly exists, but negotiations that began in 2007 have yet to lead to a revised contract. Recent Russian demands have continued to raise the price, even as advance work related to Indias new MiG-29K naval fighters continues.
Now, reports surface once again that India and Russia have reached an agreement on the Vikramadityas price. This time, they may even be true
.
Waiting for Gorshkov A History
On Jan 20/04 India and Russia signed a $947 million deal to refurbish and convert the 40,000t Soviet/Russian Admiral Gorshkov into a full carrier, to be re-named INS Vikramaditya. Initial reports of delays sparked controversy and denials in India, but subsequent events more than justified them. The INS Viraats retirement is now set for 2010-2012 but it soon became clear that even that might not be late enough. Slow negotiations and steadily-lengthening delivery times quickly pushed delivery of the Gorshkov back to 2010, and then to 2012 or later, even as Russias asking price more than doubled. Unless the price dispute is resolved, the continued absence of a contract that Russia will honor is likely to create even more delays.
The Vikramaditya project demands extensive modifications to the original ship. The cruiser-carriers guns, anti-shipping and anti-air missile launchers on the front deck would be removed and replaced with a full runway and ski jump, the deck would be widened in numerous places, its boilers would be changed to diesel fuel, the rear aircraft elevator would be enlarged and strengthened, and other modifications would be put in place to make Gorshkov a fully modern ship. The announced delivery date for INS Vikramaditya was August 2008 an ambitious schedule, but one that would allow the carrier to enter service in 2009, around the time as their 29,000t light carrier/LHA INS Viraat (formerly HMS Hermes, last of the Centaur class) was scheduled to retire. The new carrier would berth at the new Indian Navy facility in Karwar, on Indias west coast.
When reports first surfaced that this delivery date would not be met, Indias Ministry of Defence initially tried to deflect the issue with denials. Then, in May 2007, Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Sureesh Mehta said the ships will be delivered:
...by late 2008 or early 2009
. Our officials, who are stationed at the spot, have said that the work is going on as per schedule and we can have a month long delay once the work is completed as that part of Russia is frozen for a long time.
Later comments on this issue included this May 1/07 quote:
The work is only three to four months behind schedule and we can expect the aircraft carrier to be delivered by late 2008 or early 2009
Subsequent updates, however, have proven the critics to be more than correct. Cost estimates and reports concerning the Gorshkovs final total now hover in the $2.9 billion range, of which about $600 million has reportedly already been paid. As is customary with Indian defense procurement issues, that transparency eventually came after all other alternatives had been exhausted. After the delivery delays could no longer be denied, the initial approach was to minimize their length. February 2008 news reports, however, began to give figures of up to 3-4 years before refurbishment and testing could allow the ship to enter service. Subsequent reports by Indian and Russian sources stress 2012, or even later.
That risks a gap with no serving carriers in the fleet if further delays occur, or if INS Viraat cannot have its life or its aircraft extended for another 4 years of unanticipated service. An official Indian CAG report adds that even if inducted, the warship will have no aerial defenses until 2017, whereupon it is scheduled to be retrofitted with a last-ditch CIWS gun.
Meanwhile, China is working hard to refurbish the 58,000t ex-Russian carrier Varyag, and some analysts believe the ship could be operational in a testing capacity by 2010.
Those sunk construction costs, Russian possession of the Gorshkov, the difficulty in finding a substitute carrier to replace the Gorshkov sooner than 2013, and the Chinese push with the Varyag, have all combined to give the Russians substantial leverage in their negotiations. They have exploited that leverage to the fullest. The latest Russian offer would triple the originally-agreed contract price, and reports place the current negotiating gap as sitting between Indias proposed $2.2 billion final price and Russias $2.9 billion.
Gorshkov-Vikramaditya: Aerial Complement
Many of Gorshkovs key modifications are aircraft-related, including the new arrester gear and ski jump. New boilers and wiring are the other major components. The timelines and cost figures for delivery of the ship do not include the aircraft, however, which are bought separately.
The original carriers complement was 12 Yak-38 Forger V/STOL fighters, 12 Ka-28 helicopters, and 2 Ka-31 airborne early warning helicopters. The removal of the Gorshkovs forward missiles, addition of the ski ramp, and other modifications will improve the ships air complement somewhat.
The nature of its original design, however, means that INS Vikramaditya will still fall short of comparably-sized western counterparts like the 43,000t FNS Charles de Gaulle nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, with its 40-plane complement that leans heavily to fighter jets. For instance, the Gorshkov would be large enough to operate full naval AWACS aircraft, but it lacks a launch catapult. If rumors prove true and India does indeed buy E-2C+/E-2D Hawkeyes, they would be likely to operate from shore.
Carriage ranges given for the refitted Vikramaditya seem to average 12-16 fighters and 4-16 of the compact Ka-28/31 helicopters; diagrams seem to suggest total stowage space for a footprint of no more than 15-16 MiG-29Ks, with each Kamov helicopter sporting a comparative footprint of about 0.4, and about 5-6 open footprint spots on deck.
A related $740 million contract for 16 MiG-29K (12 MiG-29K, 4 two-seat MiG-29KUB) aircraft plus training and maintenance was confirmed on Dec 22/04, with an option for another 30 MiG-29Ks by 2015. They would be operated in STOBAR (Short Take-Off via the ski ramp, But Assisted Recovery via arresting wires) mode. The MiG-29K was reportedly selected over the larger and more-capable navalized SU-33, because India also hopes to operate them from smaller Project-71 indigenous carriers.
In addition to its fighters, the Gorshkov-Vikramadityas complement will include Kamov Ka-31 AEW and/or Ka-28 multi-role helicopters, along with a complement of torpedo tubes, and a CIWS gatling gun for close in defense after 2017.
Contracts & Key Events
Dec 5/09: Reports surface once again that India and Russia have reached an agreement on the Vikramadityas price. This time, they may even be true. Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao said that during summit-level talks between Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev:
Both the leaders discussed the [Vikramaditya] issue and noted excellent progress on negotiations on price and technical issues which have been brought to a successful conclusion.
The actual price in question is not discussed, and that political rapprochement may not be shared by the Navy. Defence Minister AK Antony has publicly distanced the Government from Naval Chief Admiral Sureesh Mehtas recent public hard line regarding the Gorshkovs price, and suggestions that India reassess its defense ties with Russia owing to quality issues. Adm. Arum Prakash also issued a warning, saying that: The long-term price that we pay for 25 years of mischief, of twisting our arm will be much more than what we pay now.
Dec 4/09: Ending a year-long wait, the first batch of MiG-29K naval fighter jets, purchased from Russia for the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier, arrive in Goa in a knocked down condition packed in containers on board an AN-124 cargo aircraft. Press Trust of India.
Nov 30/09: Defence Minister Shri AK Antony, in a written reply to the Lok Sabha (Indias Parliament):
The Russian side had submitted a revised Master Schedule indicating delay and increase in prices for repair and re-equipping of aircraft carrier ex-Admiral Gorshkov. The Government has agreed to conduct negotiations for finalizing a revised Repair and Re-equipping contract. Negotiations are in progress with the Russian side. Details of final prices would be known only after completion of these negotiations.
An exhaustive list of equipment to be fitted on the ship was included in the original contract. The Aircraft Carrier is scheduled to be inducted in December, 2012.
Nov 16/09: Amidst rumors of major British defense budget cuts, The Guardian reports that India has expressed formal interest in the 65,000t CVF/Queen Elizabeth class carrier program. The UK MoD is desperately looking for long-term budget savings, but canceling either of its full-size carriers at this point would be rival the cost of finishing them:
According to senior defence sources, Whitehall officials are examining the feasibility of selling one of the carriers. It is understood they are planning to put forward the option as part of the governments strategic defence review, which will start early next year
. Selling a carrier is one very serious option, a defence source said this weekend, although the government is a long way from committing to any sale. It could take between six and 12 months to reach a decision, he added.
Each Queen Elizabeth carrier costs about $3.5 billion, and the negotiating difference around the Admiral Gorshkov is currently around $2.2+ billion. The question is whether India would be able to buy one of the CVF carriers for less than the UK paid, in order to offer the Treasury monies that it could not otherwise obtain from the CVF program. If a refund could be forthcoming from the Russians, and a deal done with the British, investing the Vikramadityas $3 billion could net India a comletely new ship rather than an old and refurbished one, with double the Gorshkovs aerial complement. Key questions include whether those deals could be secured, and whether India is prepared to wait until 2016 for the British carrier, as opposed to 2013 (and sliding
) for Gorshkov.
Then again, $2.2 $2.5 billion could also secure India an America class light carrier from Northrop Grumman, with a similar tonnage and aerial complement to the Gorshkov, but markedly better electronics and defensive systems. If India begins to look beyond Russia for options, Britains CVF program is not its sole alternative.
Nov 1/09: The Times of India reports that INS Viraat is now on the verge of completing its sea-acceptance trials and work-up phase, after an 18-month-long comprehensive refit and upgrade program in Mumbai and Kochi. This will give India an aircraft carrier again. The 28,000-tonne carrier will complete its 50th year as an operational warship in November 2009, having serves as both HMS Hermes and INS Viraat.
Oct 23/09: A British BBC report explains some of the hurdles on the road to Vikramadityas delivery:
In this hurry [on both sides to sign a deal], fine points including the ones relating to what was expected of Russia were overlooked
. India agreed to buy and get a ship refurbished without Gorshkovs design [presumably means a detail design blueprint].... When the ship was ripped open, it was found that the wiring was ageing and needed to be redone. A Japanese contractor awarded the rewiring contract found the job overwhelming given the costs involved and left. Now a new contractor has been found for the purpose. Gorshkovs steel plates and machinery, too, needed to be pulled apart and new ones fitted
. With Gorshkovs induction delayed, the government decided to refit its only aircraft carrier, INS Viraat, but it will not be operational till 2015. That leaves the Indian navy with no aircraft carrier for some time.
Oct 15/09: Despite prior reports that an agreement on the Vikramadityas final cost would be reached during Defence Minister A.K. Antonys 2-day visit to Moscow, India and Russia have failed to reach agreement. Negotiations will continue. India MoD | Indo-Asian News Service.
Sept 24/09: Russias Vedemosti newspaper reports that the Russian Navy may decide to replace its 19 larger and longer-range SU-33 fighters on its Admiral Kuznetsov carrier with 24 MiG-29Ks, when the SU-33s must be retired in 2015. Caution is advised, since the article is based on a source who sees a contract as possible in 2 years; thats not exactly a rock-solid basis for concluding that India will avoid the potential trap of being the MiG-29Ks only operator. Vedemosti [in Russian] | Barents Observer.
Sept 3/09: Indian media report that a deal to finish the Vikramaditya refit is expected by mid-Octiber 2009. Some caution is advised, as past reports and predictions in this area have later been proven false by events. Indias Business Standard | The Hindu | Hindustan Times.
Aug 16/09: Indian media report that the government has cleared a $122 million bridging payment for continued modification work on the Gorshkov, while negotiations continue. The payment was sanctioned in early August, following demands by Rosoboronexport. domain-b | Economic Times of India.
July 31/09: Indias Business Standard conducts an interview with Russias outgoing ambassador to India, Vyacheslav Trubnikov. Excerpts:
[VT] Not changing [the Gorshkov order], but the Indian Navy was eager to get the best, the most modern equipment [to insert into the hull].
[IBS] So the Navys appetite kept increasing, they wanted more and more..
[VT] Yes.
[BS] Reports are that it will cost around $2.2 billion?
[VT] It would be irresponsible of me to comment. Price negotiations are now entering the final stage. What is important for India is also the time of delivery. But the point is that if India wants additional equipment, the carrier will cost even more. So if both sides stop and decide, okay no request from India and no increase in price from our side, then we can finalise price and delivery.
July 29/09: The CAG report begins to generate political opposition to the Gorshkov deal, as well as media op/ed calls for a re-think. In the course of one such op-ed, The Hindustan Times offers a report on the negotiating spread:
The Russians now want $2.9 billion (Rs 14,500 crore) for the warship, while the defence ministry is bargaining for $2.2 billion (Rs 11,000 crore). [Defence Minister Antony said that] The Russians have demanded a substantially huge amount. We are still negotiating the deal. No final decision has been taken.
July 25/09: Indias Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) issues a scathing report, saying that:
The objective of inducting an aircraft carrier in time to fill the gap in the Indian Navy has not been achieved. The cost of acquisition has more than doubled [from $875 million] to $1.82 billion (Rs. 7,207 crore) in four years. At best, the Indian Navy would be acquiring, belatedly, a second-hand ship with a limited life span, by paying significantly more than what it would have paid for a new ship
The largest cost escalation is in sea trials, which have risen from $27 million to $500 million, and the CAG report sharply criticizes the Navy for poor project supervision practices. The report adds that planning failures will leave the warship with no air defense upon delivery, and only a Close-In Weapon System (CIWS) when one is retrofitted in 2017. Risks are also cited with respect to the aircraft arresting gear, which has not been finalized due to development problems. India CAG they do not archive reports | DNA India | The Hindu | Indian Express | Rediff | Times of India | Agence France Presse.
May 25/09: Indian media report that the government has decided to speed up renegotiation with Russia, after a recent Moscow trip undertaken by defence secretary Vijay Singh failed to break the long-standing deadlock. The government has reportedly scheduled 3 visits to Russia by Indian officials, in hopes of sealing the deal by the end of July 2009. During those visits, they will also discuss the larger subject of Indian-Russian defense relations.
Another senior official of the Controller of Warship Production and Acquisition will reportedly visit Russia in the middle of June 2009, to work out the warships hoped-for 2011 trials in Barents Sea. Assuming that a deal can in fact be reached this time. Times of India.
April 6/09: India inaugurates the first phase of the MiG-29K maintenance and and training facility at the INS Hansa naval base in Goa. Vice-Admiral J. J. Bedi, Commander-in-Chief of Indias Western Naval command, is quoted as saying that:
This is the first time in my service career of 40 years that I witness construction and availability of major infrastructure project prior to the induction of hardware in the Indian Navy.
He expects the first batch of 4 aircraft to be with us by middle of this year. The Hindu.
March 16/09: Still no agreement on the Gorshkov refit. Meanwhile, The Times of India reports a Russian decision to ground its MiG-29 fleet, following accidents caused by the disintegration of the planes tail fins. It quoted an unidentified senior officer, who said that:
We continue to fly our MiG-29s
. Our checks are stringent since we operate our MiG-29s also from coastal airbases (Jamnagar) and Russian metallurgy is susceptible to salinity.
Thats a somewhat worrying assertion, in light of the MiG-29K naval buy. India is scheduled to finish its MiG-29A upgrades to MiG-29SMT status in 2014, thanks to a contract signed in March 2008. That effort will not be delayed by the news from Russia, but the news will reportedly delay delivery of the new MiG-29Ks to the Indian Navy.
Feb 28/09: The keel for Indias first Project-71 37.5t-40t indigenous carrier project is laid at the Cochin Shipyard in Kerala. The new carrier will be named INS Vikrant, after the 20,000t World War 2 era carrier HMS Herculaeus that was sold to the Indian Navy, and served as the Vikrant (from Sanskrit vikranta, courageous/ victorious) from 1961-1997. Ptoject-71 currently has a budget of INR 32.6 billion (currently about $650 million), but few observers believe that the final cost will remain on budget.
Delivery is scheduled for 2014-2015, and these carriers are expected to carry their own complement of MiG-29K fighters. Plans exist for a naval variant of Indias LCA Tejas lightweight fighters, but Indias history of extremely late and failed weapons projects suggests caution. Even a successful project is unlikely to induct a naval Tejas before 2016-2018, leaving both of Indias future carrier classes strongly dependent on Russian goodwill. The Hindu | Indian Express | Sindh Today.
Feb 23/09: Indian media report that Russia has demanded another $700 million, on top of their demand for an additional $1.2 billion which had been approved by Indias cabinet, on top of the original $947 million contract. The shipyard is also demanding $190 million immediately, in order to continue work. Delivery is still scheduled for 2012, but this assumes the schedule promises are kept, and that there are no work stoppages or other production delays owning to contract negotiations.
Assuming that this is in fact Russias final demand, it would bring the asking price for the Gorshkov to $2.85 billion. That figure could buy a similar 45.7t new-build America Class LHA-R medium carrier with funds left over, and might even buy one of Britains new 65t CVF Class carriers. Hindustan Times | Indian Express | Forecast International report/op-ed | Indian Express op-ed.
Feb 22/09: The Hindu quotes UAC VP and RAC MiG Director-General Mikhail Aslanovich Pogosyan, who says that Indian naval pilots have been training in Russia since October 2008. The theory portion of the course is done, and:
Indian pilots are already training to fly the MiG-29Ks from a shore-based facility. They have been doing even 15 sorties in a day during the winter. We expect the first four MiG-29Ks to arrive in India later this year, with the other 12 being delivered by 2010.
So far, 4 certified MiG-29Ks have been transferred to the Indian project team in Russia, after Russian test pilots have conducted carrier landing check-outs. After the course is complete, Indias Navy hopes to continue their own pilots training by using a Shore-based Test Facility (SBTF), built with Russian help at INS Hansa in Goa.
Feb 12/08: RIA Novosti reports that Russia has delivered the first 4 MiG-29 naval fighters to India. Oddly, they use the designation MiG-29 Fulcrum D, which is the NATO reporting code and not Russian or RAC MiG nomenclature.
Dec 3/08: Indian Express reports that Indias Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) on Tuesday gave in to Moscows demands, and will renegotiate the Vikramaditya upgrade on terms acceptable to Moscow.
Nov 22/08: Australias the Age newspaper reports that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has cut back his December 2008 India visit to a single day, a signal usually associated with a strained geo-strategic relationship. The visit will now take place on Dec 5/08.
Nov 13/08: As negotiations regarding the Gorshkov continue to drag on, pressure for timely resolution is building on the Russian side, as well. Sevmash (Severodvinsk Machine Building Enterprise) shipyard Deputy General-Director Sergey Novoselov tells RIA Novosti new agency that:
We are essentially constructing a new aircraft carrier at the open assembly berth of Sevmash. In the last two years, work has only proceeded thanks to internal loans
.
That cannot continue indefinitely but Sevmash is not backlogged with projects, which means it needs to hang on to the Admiral Gorshkov refit. So, what if India proves unwilling to pay? Novoselov pointed out that even at $2 billion, a refitted Gorshkov costs only 50-67% of the $3-4 billion involved in building a medium sized carrier. Novoselov would not be pinned down to any firm figure, of course, but some Russian defense planners are either taking him seriously, or willing to help him put added pressure on India. RIA Novosti, via Forecast Interational:
If India wont pay the money [over the agreed $617 million], we will keep the aircraft carrier ourselves. It will be very useful to us, because the situation in the world is complicated. Vessels like that are needed to patrol the waters of the Atlantic and the Mediterranean, noted a Russian defense industry official.
If Russia did make that move, India would need compensation for costs incurred to date reportedly about $400 million.
Nov 11/08: Russia now says that the delivery of Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier to the Indian Navy will be delayed till 2012. The shipyard also claims that New Delhi has not made any payments since last year, although extra work to the tune of $1.7 billion has been done by the shipyard. ITAR-TASS reportedly quoted a shipyard representative as saying that:
At this juncture, the completion of work in 2010 would be realistic. Two more years would be required to complete the vessels sailing trials, including testing its aircraft in the severe conditions of Barents Sea.
DID isnt quite sure why arctic operations would matter to India. India Defence.
Nov 2/08: Indias finance ministry has for the second time rejected a proposal from the MoD to approve an additional $1.2 billion in funds, in order to complete the INS Vikramaditya retrofit project. The article reports that India has already paid Russia about 67% of the original program cost, but has made no further payments since January 2007. The India Defence report adds, cryptically:
The finance ministrys latest decision also stemmed from a request to allocate $60 million to perform sea trials of the refurbished vessel during 2011.
Oct 18/08: The Hindu newspaper quotes Sevmash Shipyards deputy director for foreign defence contracts Sergei Novosyolov, who says that Gorshkov will be taken out of dry dock by the end of the month.
The ships hull has been fully done and painted and scaffolding will be dismantled by the end of October
Sept 21/08: Still no firm deal on the Gorshkov refit, but Indias Defence Acquisition Committee (DAC) has given approval in principle to add another 29 MiG-29Ks to the original 16-plane, $1.5 billion deal.
No price negotiations have taken place, but the contract is expected to be worth close to $2 billion when it is signed. The Navy is reported to have set its sights on a 3-squadron goal for its MiG-29K/KUB force. Indian Express report.
Sept 19/08: Indian Express reports that after Indian officials expressed concern over the slow progress in overhauling Gorshkov at the Sevmash shipyard in North Sea, Russian asked South Block to immediately pay the cash-strapped shipyard $200 million, without prejudice to the on-going price negotiations, in order to speed up work.
The report adds that Russian Defence Minister A Serdyukovs visit to Delhi later in September 2008 is expected to result in a revised price for the Gorshkov refit, which must then receive political approval in India.
June 3/08: Press Trust of India reports that Russias Sevmash shipyard has promised readiness by 2012 maybe. RIA Novosti quotes Sevmash officials as saying that:
The successful solution of all the financial issues will enable the shipbuilders to sail the aircraft carrier out into the Barents Sea for trials. In the winter of 2012, the ship is expected to be finally refitted and trials will continue in the summer of that year
At the end of 2012, the aircraft carrier is expected to be fully prepared for its transfer to the Indian navy in accordance with the schedule approved by the Russian Navy.
Negotiations and maneuvering around the contracts final details continue, and Sevmashs history of delivery, detailed below, must also be considered when evaluating such statements.
June 2/08: Defense News reports that Indias MiG-29Ks will be based on land, because the country has no operational carriers. With INS Viraat unavailable due to upgrades and Vikramaditya badly behind schedule, the MiG-29Ks will go to the Naval Aviation Centre at INS Hansa in Goa instead. Hansa is the based used to train naval pilots. Deliveries of all 16 MiG-29Ks are expected to be complete by 2009.
May 30/08: Reuters reports that American Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was asked about rumours that the USS Kitty Hawk might be sold to India at the at the Shangri-La Dialogue forum of regional analysts, defense and security officials. I am aware of no such plans, Gates replied.
May 9/08: News Post Indias Indian Navy To Order Another Aircraft Carrier claims that the Indian Navy will supplement the Vikramaditya with 2 of its 37,500t indigenous Air Defence Ship carriers, instead of just one. The article also includes additional information about the Vikramadityas schedule and the potential risks.
April 9/08: Despite an agreement that was supposed to be finalized in March, Indian Defence Secretary Vijay Singh describes the parties as still locked in intense negotiations over the price details, adding that technical assessment of the work needed on the carrier is still on
The expected responses re: the deal being on track, and having a final price proposal to bring to the Cabinet soon, were also voiced. Zee News.
March 18/08: During Chief of Naval Staff Sureesh Mehtas visit to Russia, the first serially produced MiG-29KUB (tail number 113) performs its maiden flight at the RAC MiG test airfield in Lukhovitsy near Moscow. The MiG-29KUB is the 2-seat variant of the carrier-capable MiG-29K. RAC MiG release.
March 10/08: The Indian governments DDI News reports that India has reconciled to a price hike for procurement of Russian carrier Admiral Gorshkov and the government has constituted an experts committee to work out the increase.
Naval Chief Sureesh Mehta, who had opposed additional payments under the contract, said that: There will be some price hike. We need to pay extra amount and whatever amount is due as per contracts we will pay. This does not sound like an encouraging report from ongoing negotiations.
March 3/08: India opts to pay Russia more, in hopes of getting the Gorshkov ready in time. Figures given vary between $500 million and $1.2 billion; exactly how much more India will agree to pay will reportedly be decided later in March 2008, after 2 more rounds of negotiations. Indias Defence Secretary Vijay Singh is quoted as saying that:
It should be completed by mid-2010. After that, it will undergo 18 months of extensive sea trials by the Russian navy to ensure all systems are working properly.
Retired Admiral Arun Prakash was head of the Indian Navy in 2004 when the original deal was laboriously and painstakingly negotiated for 11 months, and the contract sealed and signed. He told BusinessWeek that he is disappointed by Russia reneging on the deal and says Russia gifted the Gorshkov to India in exchange for a $1.5 billion contract to buy planes and helicopters and revive their terminally ill shipbuilding and aircraft manufacturing industries.
India will also reportedly send 500 shipyard workers, technicians and managers to Russia, to take direct charge of the work, cover Russias labor shortage, and keep an eye on quality control so that its caught immediately. Whether this will suffice, in the wake of Sevmash shipyard disasters like the Odfjell contract (q.v. Feb 21/08), remains to be seen.
What also remains to be seen at this point is whether Indias MiG-29K contract becomes the next bottleneck. India remains the only customer for this substantially different aircraft, and MiG will need to make production line changes that the existing contract may not adequately finance.
Meanwhile, BusinessWeek has its own speculation re: Why India Talked Up A US Carrier Deal. As an interesting second perspective on the larger Russia-India relationship, see also the Navhind Times March 4/08 article Indias Defence: Looking Beyond Russia.
March 3/08: Indias Defence Minister Shri A K Antony confesses that Indias Sea Harrier fleet has an availability problem, due to the rotation of aircraft through the current upgrade program.
Indias Sea Harrier Shortage looks at numbers and planned upgrades for Indias legacy naval aircraft, as the Navy prepares for future operations with MiG-29Ks.
Feb 27/08: Indias Minister of Defence Shri A K Antony, asked about this issue, says:
The overall progress of repair and re-equipping of the ship, ex-Admiral Gorshkov, in Russia is behind schedule. Execution of contract for construction of three ships of Project 1135.6 (follow-on-ships of Talwar Class) is on schedule. Russia has indicated an increase in price for repair and re-equipping of ex-Admiral Gorshkov. There is no proposal under the active consideration of the Government to contact some other country in this regard. The need for contacting other country does not arise as the existing contract with Russia is still valid.
A fine politicians reply. If another country contacted India instead, his denial would still be true in the strict sense of the term
Feb 23/08: Progress on Gorshkov? According to the India Times Economic Times, Indian Defence Secretary Vijay Singhs 5-day delegation visit to Sevmash Shipyard, and talks with Russian Energy and Industries Minister Viktor Khristenko, may have made progress. Russian senior officials reportedly assured Singh that the Russian government was making strenuous efforts to improve the situation.
Feb 19-23/08: Crazy Sams Carrier Clearance Sale? As reports begin to suggest that Russia and India are too far apart to agree on the Gorshkov refit, speculation grows that the USA intends to solve Indias problem with a stunning offer during Defense Secretary Gates imminent visit to India. instead of retiring and decommissioning its last conventionally-powered carrier, the 81,800 ton/ 74,200t USS Kitty Hawk [CV-63, commissioned 1961], would be handed over to India when its current tour in Japan ends in 2008. The procedure would resemble the January 2007 hot transfer of the amphibious landing ship USS Trenton [LPD-14], which become INS Jalashva. The cost? This time, it would be free. As in, $0.
Naturally, there is a quid pro quo that accompanies these rumors. In return for an aircraft carrier that would be larger than its counterparts in every navy other than the US Navy, India would select at least 60 F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets in its MMRCA fighter competition, to serve as the carriers air wing. Unlike the Gorshkov, the Kitty Hawk is a purpose-built carrier whose full air complement is a whopping 75+ aircraft and helicopters. India has also expressed interest in the USAs E-2 Hawkeye carrier AWACS aircraft, which would be a natural fit for its new ship.
As a number of sources point out, this is a multi-pronged move that would achieve several objectives at once. First, the offer removes all Russian negotiating leverage over India by removing the issues of sunk costs, foreign possession of the Vikramaditya, and any danger of being left without a carrier. The Indian Navy would be greatly strengthened, and its ability to police the Indian Ocean from the Straits of Malacca to South Africa would take a huge leap forward. Any additional work to upgrade or refurbish the carrier could be undertaken in India, providing jobs and expertise while maintaining full national control over the refit. The USA gains financial benefits of its own, as the Navy avoids the expensive task of steaming the Kitty Hawk home and decommissioning it. Americans would almost certainly receive maintenance contracts for the steam catapults, and possibly for some new electronics, but those economic benefits pale in comparison to the multi-billion dollar follow-on wins for Boeing (Super Hornet), Northrop Grumman (E-2 Hawkeye), and possibly even Lockheed Martin (F-16 E/F, F-35B). All of which works to cement a growing strategic alliance between the two countries, and creates deep defense industrial ties as well.
Then theres the effect on Russia, whose relations with the USA currently border on outright hostility. With the MiG-29Ks no longer necessary for India, that contract would almost certainly be canceled. At which point, the commonality value of choosing the MiG-35 as a lower-cost secondary MMRCA buy drops sharply, opening the door for other MMRCA split-buy options that could include the Saab/BAE JAS-39 Gripen, or a complementary American offer of F-16E/Fs and/or F-35Bs. The combined effect of these blows would be a severe setback for Russias arms industry, though rising oil & gas revenues in Russia and other export opportunities may lead to less shrinkage and civilian re-purposing than publications like the Weekly Standard believe. The question now is: will this happen? Barents Observer |
Weekly Standard | Information Dissemination: Feb 20th/ 23rd.
Feb 21/08: Galrahn of the respected blog Information Dissemination passes a key tip along to DID. First, recall that the Sevmash shipyard in Severodvinsk, Archangel Oblast is responsible for the Gorshkov refit. Until recently, they also had a $544 million contract to build up to 12 tankers for the Norwegian shipping form Odfjell. When it was signed in 2004, it was promoted as a historic deal in Norwegian-Russian industrial relations.
Now it has been canceled, and Odfjell CEO Terje Storeng has used terms like no will to try to understand that this is a commercial project, deliberately sabotaged and delayed the project et. al. to Dagens Næringsliv. He adds:
Following serious delays in the construction process, combined with demands for further price increases from the Yard, continuous cooperation problems as well as protracted negotiations, Odfjell decided today to serve formal notice of cancellation to Sevmash. The instalments already paid are covered by standard refund guarantees from international banks. Odfjell will further claim full compensation for its costs and losses caused, on account of wilful misconduct and massive contract breaches by the Yard. Unless the matter is solved amicably between the parties, the issue will be solved by arbitration in Sweden, as provided for in the contract.
Note the Russian officials comments in the Feb 7/08 entry. Closure may once again become a very real possibility for Sevmash. Worse, Odfjells experience has to give India serious pause re: the reliability of Russias new refit cost estimates, and the likelihood of further extortion to adjust the deal down the road. Barents Observer | Dagens Naeringsliv report [Norwegian] | Odjfell.NO release
Feb 7/08: Zeenews quotes an unnamed Russian official with interesting and somewhat unsettling arguments, in advance of a high-level delegations arrival led by Indian Defence Secretary Vijay Singh:
Moscow feels that the agreement for supply of the 45,000 tonne warship was signed at a time when the Russian ship-building company was in bad shape and India used the situation to sign the contract at lower price. The ship-building company was facing closure and was ready to sign any kind of contract when the contract was signed.
Defense Industry Daily needs to look up the exact definitions to be certain, but we believe this process is known as shrewd negotiation, followed by a deal. Indian Naval Chief Admiral Sureesh Mehta appears to be using the same lexicon, and has publicly said that there should be no revision to the Goshkov contract. Still, India cannot receive the carrier she wants if the shipyard goes bankrupt, and Russia is holding the carrier. This gives the Russians considerable leverage in negotiations, unless India can find an alternate provider. There may be a way out, however:
But Russia is willing to compensate for the cost of Gorshkov if it gets more military orders, which Moscow insists is not linked to 126 fighter planes that India is planning to buy but other defence purchases.
Nov 19/07: Indias MoD confirms delays in the Gorshkovs delivery and slow progress, without really answering any questions. It acknowledges that the Russian side has submitted a revised Master Schedule, attributing the delays to Growth of Work. In response, an apex level Indian committee under the Defence Secretary, and a Steering Committee under a Vice Admiral, have been set up. A team has also been stationed at the shipyard.
No word on the timelines or costs suggested; indeed, these are likely to remain under negotiation. Indian MoD release.
Nov 6/07: A top-level Indian Navy delegation is heading for Moscow to discuss the delay and price escalation in the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier deal. A detailed financial and technical plan outlining the specific justifications and amounts will be presented to the Indian side, who is there to listen rather than to negotiate.
The report pegs the original price quoted for refurbishing the carrier was just under $980 million, adding that the Russians are insisting on cost increases of at least $350 million. Indian officials reportedly fear that the final escalation may end up being much more once they are deep enough into the commitment trap of having paid for work. The report also adds that the Navy had reconciled itself to the fact that the delivery of the ship would be delayed from the original deadline of August 2008 by a few years, a surprising development given the limited service life of Indias remaining carrier. If the government is indeed prioritizing cost containment over delivery dates, reconciliation of the INS Viraats service life with Gorshkovs entry may prove difficult. IDRW.
Oct 18/07: Indias MoD finally admits the obvious, as part of an announcement concerning an Indo-Russia fighter development deal. India MoD release:
The Defence Minister described the Agreement on FGFA as a major landmark and said that the Indo-Russian relationship is on a trajectory to reach new heights
. Mr. Antony expressed satisfaction at the outcome of discussions on other important projects e.g., supply and licensed production of T-90 tanks, SU-30 MKI aircraft and other strategic issues. He admitted that there has been a delay in the delivery of the repaired and refurbished aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov along with supply of deck-based fighter aircraft MiG-29-K and said it was decided that some more studies by technical groups would be done to go through the details. He appreciated the efforts made by the Russian side to resolve issues relating to life cycle support of equipment of Russian origin.
June 16/07: India Defence: High Level Indian Delegation In Russia To Re-Negotiate Defense Deals Pricing:
With differences over prices delaying the delivery of upgraded Sukhoi multi-role fighters and Gorshkov aircraft carrier, India today rushed a high-level defence team to Russia with fresh proposals to break the logjam
. The visit of the team assumes significance with Defence Minister AK Antony admitting that New Delhi was facing problems in acquisition of the carrier Gorshkov as well as in negotiating a new deal to buy 40 more upgraded Sukhoi-30 fighters for the Indian Air Force.
May 17/07: India Defence: No Delays in INS Vikramaditya Acquisition from Russia: Defence Minister.
