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Increasing foreign debts: When will Pakistan be truly ‘independent’?

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Increasing foreign debts: When will Pakistan be truly ‘independent’?
Global Village Space |


Rida Hussain |

Pakistan soon would be marking the 70th year of its independence and within these 70 years, Pakistan has gone through a roller coaster ride of economic upheavals and downturns. Amid all these ups and downs, though, we could not understand the meaning of the term “independence”.

The question is, can we really consider ourselves an independent state? It is not hard to understand a basic principle that economic and monetary sustainability is the key to becoming an independent state. The criteria of being called an independent state demand the state to be economically self-sufficient and less dependent on help from external sources.

Since 2008 to 2012, the ratio worsened and reached to 60.1 % by the end of PPP government with horrifying figures of borrowing Rs11,726 billion.

In reality, it is quite hard to say as to what extent Pakistan is an independent country owing to the heaps of foreign debts Pakistan is incurring in each fiscal year with an added inability to repay those debts. Borrowing money to suffice the needs of the establishing economy is not a bad idea, but what the country is doing with this borrowed amount is the real matter of concern. Since 2003 to date, no government has shown any kind of reluctance in borrowing money and loans rather a number of loans have seen an upsurge.

Read more: Corruption in the guise of development funds: Any accountability?

Though at the start of every year, we are given a narration by the finance minister on the floor of the National Assembly about the planned investments on the page. How much of that planned investment is turned into reality has always been a question.

A brief analysis of the figures of the external borrowing since 2003 shows that though the foreign debt was not decreased, the ratio of a debt-to-GDP ratio (which measures the country’s debt to its economic output and also the country’s ability to pay back without further borrowing) showed improvement by the end of 2007.

At the beginning of 2003, this ratio was at 81.8% and by the end of Musharraf regime, it reached the record low of 57.5% in 2007. Though foreign loans reached around $4o million, this improvement in the ratio was brought by the increased economic productivity.

Every Pakistani owed a debt of Rs 37,120 at the end of the year 2008. This figure, in 7 years, rose to Rs 101,338 by the June of 2015.

However, since 2008 to 2012, the ratio worsened and reached to 60.1 % by the end of PPP government with horrifying figures of borrowing Rs11,726 billion.

PPP government borrowed from eight countries and other international financial institutions also lent Pakistan Rs843 billion during this period. The government was also forced to obtain a further Rs754 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to pump into the ailing economy.

Read more: Pakistan in the last decade: Democracy, Corruption, or Development?

In those years, Pakistan bagged $4.39 billion from the Asian Development Bank. The International Development Association gave $3.21 billion. An added amount of $32.2 million and $1 million was collected from other international organizations and banks. China remained the third largest lender, giving loans worth $2.91 billion. Other countries included France, Germany, Italy, and Kuwait. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development gave $350.7 million and the International Fund for Agricultural Development provided $81 million.

From 2013 to 2016, the PML-N government added $25 billion as fresh foreign loans and with the fresh figures, the external debt in Pakistan increased to 75747 USD Million in the first quarter of 2017 from 74126 USD Million in the fourth quarter of 2016.

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Increasing foreign debts: When will Pakistan be truly ‘independent’?
 
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Most countries have foreign debts. Only resource-rich countries like Norway, Qatar, etc... operate without them.

The article is rather poorly written; for example the third paragraph is a single sentence that refers to a "ratio". Now I know this ratio to be Debt:GDP, but a specific reference has to be there to provide clarity. As it so happens, this particular metric is very important in any and every such discussion. But there is absolutely no reference to this metric (60.1%) as it applies to other nations. As it so happens (again) Pakistan's ratio is not bad, its not even at par for a country and economy its size and at its stage of growth. 60.1% Debt:GDP is actually not bad at all for a growing third-world economy. I would certainly not provide any reference, anyone interested in verifying my assertion can use google or any other search engine to find out. Some reading would also do good to an inquisitive mind while thinking upon this subject.

Coming to the 7th paragraph, the phrase debt to gdp ratio does make an appearance, but again reference to it is useless, since there is no objective information given for comparison. The interesting detail that IS given (at the end of 7th paragraph and in 8th paragraph) points to the Musharraf-era fiscal situation when there were large in-flows of foreign exchange due to WOT coalition support and also remittances sent by worried over-seas Pakistanis to buy property in Pakistan. I find the reference, devoid of any meaningful context, very interesting and telling. One could tell what the writer wishes to convey without actually saying so openly: Dictators are good, civvies are bad. It is a rather dumb binary, but very useful to certain privileged quarters.

The next one-line paragraph again reinforces the thrust of the article with information (devoid of comparison - again) meant to scare the unwary and simple-minded reader. It brings a smile to my face, because I have been reading such alarmist figures via screeching headlines in newspapers for more years than I care to count. These headlines happen to occur either on slow news days, or during the few weeks when budget discussions are going on.

The fact that the blow-back of failed policies and the inevitable short-comings of dictatorship (drunk on power or otherwise) came to haunt us in 2007 is not mentioned anywhere.

The fact that we are in the 10th year of our own devastating war on terror is mentioned no where.

The fact that the dictator made a deal with PPP (NRO) and handed over power to a know crook is mentioned no where.

Can anyone find a reference to the cost of WOT and fighting insurgencies mentioned any where?

There is absolutely no reference to these and other facts that people of Pakistan face daily. But we are supposed to take this red pill just like that? Does anyone find it strange that the article inserts this:
"Read more: Pakistan in the last decade: Democracy, Corruption, or Development?"

Why? Why is this phrase and link here? The article was the bait and ^^^ this right here is the hook. Bite the bait and this hook gets you. If you are not wary, you shall have made an equation of Democracy and Corruption, and Development stands apart from these both. The fourth term is not there, but let me do a favor to the article-writer and spell it out: M I L I T A R Y G O V E R N M E N T. Yup that is right. This is the unsaid, but implied term which is missing physically, but very much present in context.

The above seems to be a motivated hit-piece. Ill-written, ill-presented, & certainly with ill-intention.
 
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us foreign debt $17.8 trillion having economy 18.6 trillion
china have debt about 5.7 trillion having economy of 10.8 trillion
uk debt 81% of it gdp
france $5.496 trillion debt out of 2.4 trillion of it economy
saudi arabia debt 166 billion out of 1.7 trillion economy
UAE 152 billion out of 360 billion economy
pakistan debt is 78 billion out of 300 billion economy
 
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Collect all the corrupt politicians together & blast them in bombing.. Or MNA & MPA should have genuine master degree with regards of their designation.. hang the Mr.Dar problem will be solved...
 
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Collect all the corrupt politicians together & blast them in bombing.. Or MNA & MPA should have genuine master degree with regards of their designation.. hang the Mr.Dar problem will be solved...

Now this here is exactly the idiotic, rude, & know-nothing comment that the article-writer was looking for. I think congratulations are in order. Well done.
 
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Debt isn't a bad thing. It's already been discussed as necessary.

It comes down to unsustainable massing with no quantitative results to justify a loan. Loan to pay off loan for example.
 
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This article is one-sided and nitpicking, should look at the full picture. Let's skip all media, journalists or blogs, let's go directly to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and check:

http://www.sbp.org.pk/ecodata/Invest-BPM6.pdf

Invest-BPM6-1.png

At end of 2016, stock of inbound FDI stood at US$ 33.3914 billlion, which is about 1/3 of total liabilities. Main item of liabilities is loans, stood at US$ 58.7948 billion. Total external assets stood at 32.3689 billion, bulk of which is reserve assets. Overall position (Net International Investment Position) stood at US$ -77.3322 billion, or -27.2% of GDP. Such degree of indebtedness is on par with regional level, and very normal at a stage of fast economic buildup. It is well within the -60% warning guideline used by EU, better than LatAm average, CEE average, not to mention US, PIIGS average and many highly-indebted countries (HIPC).

total_net_iip_with_the_rest_of_the_world-_eu-28_member_states_-eur_1_000_million-png.395884

Figure 1: Total Net International Investment Position with the rest of the world, EU-28 Member States, 2015 (EUR 1 000 million)

Citation:
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/who-are-worlds-top-10-largest-creditor-nations.455610/page-6
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=46&pr.y=7&sy=2015&ey=2022&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=564&s=NGDPD,NGDPDPC,PPPGDP,PPPPC&grp=0&a=
 
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When will such nonsense ever stop....

Dark propaganda must at least have some skill, some class... but seems like the professional jouralists are paid professionals....

An economy with a accounted GDP of 300+ Bln and unaccounted GDP of about 30% is not going to fall and become 'slaves' overnight.

Why don't these writers talk about IMF's intrusive programs and the dark deals that GOP has made...

For those with any business sense must understand that in a way countries are also like MNCs... with a proper business case you can borrow to grow/develop and pay off what you owed.

How else could GOP ever find means, will, competence and most importantly a great heaven sent chance (CPEC) to catch up 5 decades of neglect and negative investments.

So, just like a small business or a big company...with a business case and clear ROI plan... borrowing is part of life.

It is down right dishonest when people talk about debt trap and such... how can a loan at 2.0% over 30 yrs period be debt trap... when you take into account inflaction and ROIs CPEC is going to creat... this is money for free!

A sustained GDP growth of even 5% will double Paks GDP i.e 660 Bln..and when unaccounted economy is factored in this is a Trillion dollar econcomy within a decade.

How on Earth this will be slavery? Someone interests don't wish Pak State and Pak People to break the lower income bracket ever...

Two decades of growth at 5% will mean at least 2,5 Trillion Dollar Economy... now please, translate this into what kind of income per capita Pak People be....


Well penpushers have to earn their money also...they too have families... we must show compassion!


I, for one, hope that GOP and PRC develop a coherent and strategic communication plan...instead of fighting dark propaganda by bought/paid jurnos... Free media cuts both ways!!!!
 
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Just to clarify some issues.
I think comparing debt to GDP ratios is a valid exercise only when you can easily access foreign exchange. Most of the countries cited for debt to GDP ratios can very easily raise or borrow foreign exchange because of the size of their economies, their banking system or due to other similar reasons. We do not have easy access to foreign exchange at all. Our exports are decreasing. Foreign remittances are increasing only slowly and foreign borrowing is the only mode used to raise foreign exchange. With a large foreign debt, we can never borrow anything like huge sums in foreign exchange comparable to fraction of our economy since most of the facilities to raise foreign exchange that are available to large developed or oil exporting countries are simply not available to us. Such comparisons would be very misleading. In event of some trouble, we cannot easily raise more than a few billion dollars. I do believe that increasing debt can in fact be catastrophic sometime in future if we fail to increase the size of our economy and increase exports or other sources of foreign exchange. It would be very wrong to compare our debt to GDP ratio to likes of China, USA, UK, France or Saudi. Their economic, trade and banking dynamics are totally different.
 
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End your enemity with India. It can save lot of your drained money. Your border won't need compensations for the dead soldiers. You don't have to spend money to purchase weapons in the arms race. Your problems with Iran & Afghanistan will also reduce drastically.

Open borders, Start trade, Give access route to India not China, teach love towards Hindus to young students, Close Madrassas. Use your aid money for growth & education. When you have peace your image will improve, so you get more visas for more remittances, you get more investors so FDI & employments will grow, you will get more tourists so forex earnings will increase. You will get millions of Indians itself visiting Pak, be it Hindus, Sikhs or relatives traveling more frequently. Cricket, Hockey will come back to Pakistan stadiums. Your sport talent will grow. You will benefit from Indian cheap auto industry & save lot of money spent of Junk products. The list is endless. The public needs to wake up & do it as the most urgent mission. Kindly wake up my fellow Pakistanis before it's too late.

Don't go only by GDP. Pakistanis just take contentment in excuses. How long can you keep your eyes closed. Yes India's debt is also huge 69% of GDP, which is bad. But also understand India's forex reserves can pay of 80-85% of the debt, Pakistan's forex reserves can hardly cover 25% of the debt. Also Paksitan's forex reserves are claimed fake by many international institutions. It is around 16 Billion $.

India has hundreds of Billion dollar companies & various diversified income generating industries like IT, Pharma, Apparels, Gems, Chemicals, Fish, Petroleum & Oil Refining, to guarantee repayments. This is apart from our Film Industry, Tourism, Medical Tourism, AeroSpace & many other forex earners. Pakistan's industries are collapsing one by one. If people don't wake up to the ticking bomb, these politicians & Military will only take Pakistan to its grave.

Put an end to enemity. Friendship with India will save Pakistan. The world will be blind & only mock on your Kashmir music played every time around. Nothing will be in your favor what ever proof you provide. So realize it, choice is yours.
 
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End your enemity with India. It can save lot of your drained money. Your border won't need compensations for the dead soldiers. You don't have to spend money to purchase weapons in the arms race. Your problems with Iran & Afghanistan will also reduce drastically.

Open borders, Start trade, Give access route to India not China, teach love towards Hindus to young students, Close Madrassas. Use your aid money for growth & education. When you have peace your image will improve, so you get more visas for more remittances, you get more investors so FDI & employments will grow, you will get more tourists so forex earnings will increase. You will get millions of Indians itself visiting Pak, be it Hindus, Sikhs or relatives traveling more frequently. Cricket, Hockey will come back to Pakistan stadiums. Your sport talent will grow. You will benefit from Indian cheap auto industry & save lot of money spent of Junk products. The list is endless. The public needs to wake up & do it as the most urgent mission. Kindly wake up my fellow Pakistanis before it's too late.

Don't go only by GDP. Pakistanis just take contentment in excuses. How long can you keep your eyes closed. Yes India's debt is also huge 69% of GDP, which is bad. But also understand India's forex reserves can pay of 80-85% of the debt, Pakistan's forex reserves can hardly cover 25% of the debt. Also Paksitan's forex reserves are claimed fake by many international institutions. It is around 16 Billion $.

India has hundreds of Billion dollar companies & various diversified income generating industries like IT, Pharma, Apparels, Gems, Chemicals, Fish, Petroleum & Oil Refining, to guarantee repayments. This is apart from our Film Industry, Tourism, Medical Tourism, AeroSpace & many other forex earners. Pakistan's industries are collapsing one by one. If people don't wake up to the ticking bomb, these politicians & Military will only take Pakistan to its grave.

Put an end to enemity. Friendship with India will save Pakistan. The world will be blind & only mock on your Kashmir music played every time around. Nothing will be in your favor what ever proof you provide. So realize it, choice is yours.

Pakistan definitely do not want to be a remittance based Economy like India. Why would anyone want to be more like India? First of all, Pakistani women generally feel safe riding a bus, should they not feel safe to grow?
 
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