1- In past Soviet Union came to Afghanistan on the request of Afghan Government of that time, Pakistan and USA and other allied forces who intervened uninvited during that time
2- Russia tookeover Crimea after the fall of pro Russian Government of Ukraine
3- Iran intervene in Iraq and Syria at the request of these two governments
4- Turkey started its operation in Syria without any request by Syrian government to safeguard their territorial integrity and national interest
5- USA, Germany, UK all are in Syria uninvited
So the point is in current time request or no request countries are taking decisions to safeguard their Sovereignty and Interest
So the question of more importance should be: Is it in our interest to extend our Anti-terror operations in regions controlled by ISIS near to our boarder for limited time period ....??
Before any active military role we would be required to create a certain POLITICAL environment inside Afghanistan and in the region, as far as demands by Russia or by regional country is concerns we would not in position to fulfil any demand beyond the scope of regional cooperation.
Our sole purpose should be to dislodge the ISIS and its associated groups from regions of Pak-Afghanistan boarder and beyond therefore cooperation from countries who are sharing boarder with Afghanistan would be required.
Russia and Iran has already fought against ISIS in Syria and danger of spill over of ISIS to Central Asian region should be compelling enough for Russia to act rather wait for the request by some other country ISIS should be the common enemy to all of the countries
So rather a request by any particular country it SHOULD BE A COMMON OBJECTIVE for all countries sharing boarder with Afghanistan
1- I have already commented about point one
2- Should continue as long as possible for us to sustain as per the requirements of regional environment, the idea is to raise the importance of regional cooperation and stability than mutual understanding in isolation of the region
3- As long as it serve the economic interest of China, Chinese support will be there
4- For us its a problem which need to be worked and resolved, but our action of regional cooperation could put Indian in a situation where it will have to take clear position
Every asset have its useful life, now Taliban are gaining areas in Northern Afghanistan as well which I find difficult to understand how is possible without and support infrastructure.
one more thing most of NA is the beneficiary of current political setup of Afghanistan which is heavily supported by USA so its difficult to think that Russian during this long period of 18 years has not hedged the risk
1- Iran has establish links with Taliban, Mullah Mansoor family is still in Iran.
2- Secondly 18 consecutive years in government must have diminsh the skill of fighting of Northern alliance otherwise they could have eliminated Taliban with the help of USA from Afghanistan
3- In any such situation Indian would be required to chose the side and I am sure India will chose USA
agreed therefore engaging Russia is necessary
it not about the ability of Pakistan to defend the CPEC, its about the elimination of the perpetual risk continuously dangering business and social environment in Pakistan, without eliminating the risk from the region Pakistan would not gain any economical benefit from CPEC Chinese convey can come and go we could provide security to them but what about the economic activities in the form of investment from Chinese business community which is suppose to follow after the completion of current projects ....??
We can not bear full fruits of CPEC by just acting as SECURITY GUARD. We are required to create secure economic environment in Pakistan and in the region.
therefore at first we (like Iran, Russia) are required to create political class willing to work with regional block independent from militancy of Afghanistan, like Hekmatyar who lived in Iran during exile we also have relations with him and his group has laid down arms a per agreement with Afghan government
Both Russia and China are already in Afghanistan with there define policies which are different from the past no one is confronting USA but keeping the situation in check
ISAF mission in Afghanistan has ended now its USA forces and some other countries under resolute support mission but the forces under this structure is not enough to resolve the current and potential danger in Afghanistan in the form of ISIS
it is already in the hands of warlords just read what Abdul Rasheed Dosttam has done with one of the governor of a province of Afghanistan
I think next year Presidential election of Afghanistan will be held and as per the current situation of Afghanistan it is difficult to assume that election wold play any constructive role
in the future of Afghanistan.
because of low number of US forces and frail status of Afghan forces a vacuum in Afghanistan exist which ISIS and other elements are filling and mounting danger to regional countries security situation.
In a most simplest way and to summarise the post think it in this way
Afghanistan itself is a problem which required to be fixed rather than fixing issues of Afghanistan
not just Pakistani troops but regional element of all the countries sharing boarder with Afghanistan supported by Russia and China
In a way Pakistan has also conducted un-invited Ops inside Afghanistan, which has bothered Afghan Government and India. Regarding Russia, like i said before, there are conditions which Russia could have put infront of Syrian Assad and maybe infront of Afghan Government at end of 70's. It also seems a bit shifty to by-pass China and focus straightaway on Russia. Chinese stake in Pakistan is much more than Russia. Probably one of the ways to approach Russia is through China. The whole round of talks for Afghanistan cause can be initiated by first including China to mediate.
Now towards the question you asked;
IS is one the factions brought in the region to incur regional instability. Its main aim is to fight Talib's, after Talib's are defeated then focus on Pakistan. The foremost threat to Pakistan is TTP, its sister factions, BLA, BRA etc as these all have active members operating inside Pakistan and sabotaging Pakistan.
Considering Pakistan, identifying threat levels;
Threat
level 1 is:
TTP, BLA, BRA, JUA etc and NA. The base, supply and support is through India, Afghanistan and Israel.
Funding and training through India, Israel. Supply, logistics and provisions through Afghanistan.
Threat
level 2:
IS, Daesh. The base, supply and support is through ISAF, Afghanistan and Israel.
These two have been brought in the region to fight the Taliban, a fight that ISAF doesn't want to fight and blames Pakistan for a quick end. When Pakistan couldn't be collared, the alternative was to bring these two to fight on behalf of ISAF, ANA. They will turn towards Pakistan when Taliban and factions against ISAF operating inside Afghanistan are finished.
Threat
level 3:
Disgruntled Taliban and forever notorious AQ. The outcome depends upon Pakistan's policy making.
Pakistan should be addressing threat level 1, very soon threat level 2 will be included level 1 too and considering threat level 1, How much can Russia assist in that, can Russia be lured in to fight IS but actually deviate it to assist in fighting TTP, BLA etc, otherwise should Pakistan let Russia concentrate on IS only, would table talks be possible, should China be included at some stage since some factions have operatives inside Baluchistan.
The scope of our sole purpose is much more than fighting IS, like i mentioned above. This purpose can also include opening a new front against India through Kashmir, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Shifting from defensive to offensive.
Iran is unpredictable; its formed a good alliance with India. The Talibs are not directly fighting India, so Iran can maneuver and maintain links on both sides. Iran is playing so diplomatically that it can change sides with-in moments. Religion is a sensitive factor, the most sensitive factor on which Iran will never budge. Iran knows Pakistan has close ties with KSA, UAE and other gulf countries, basically the Sunni Muslim world. A small reason for Pakistan not to send forces in KSA-Yemen war was Iran being a neighbor, major reason was that there were no troops to spare. This step however went in good books of Iran.
The investment and projects by China in CPEC have started. Chinese Mining, oil and gas companies are already working in various projects in Baluchistan. The process is not hindered by terrorism, it has many other factors to it too. The anti-terrorist Ops are going on in Baluchistan as well as Afghanistan.
Through SCO, either a diplomatic or military alliance can be formed which starts to conduct talks with Afghan Government as well as ISAF for stabilizing the country. ISAF would ask Pakistan to cooperate in bringing down the Taliban, Pakistan would ask ISAF to cooperate in minimizing and wrapping up Indian influence and TTP activity in Afghanistan. Still you see, Syria brought a military solution, weapon is a language that terrorists understand. With So many terrorist factions involved inside Afghanistan, even if Russia, China, ISAF are brought to the table, a military solution would still be required.
ISAF is not willing to leave Afghanistan, and in regards to Dostam, exactly, this is the reason ISAF won't leave Afghanistan. The day ISAF wants and requires, Dostam will lose ground. I was talking about war lords who are pro-Talibs, this guy Dostam has been in the Afghan government.
The low number of ISAF can be increased any time, but why increase when you have proxy factions to take on enemies. The long queue of body bags will stop going back to USA. Congress will keep funding this war since losses will be minimal or non-combat.
when you mention, security guard of CPEC, a war on Afghan soil will drain Pakistani military, over a long period. Resources, man power, ammunition, equipment. There are two fronts opened already; western, on the border and LOC on the border. So far its not chaotic because its a defensive stance on both fronts. If this defensive stance is changed into an aggressive posture, requiring bombing missions, securing ground, landing companies of SF on Afghan soil, then all the resources will be directed towards the west, east will get unsecured and this is what India wants.
You want a land invasion and aerial bombing ?
Intelligence assets and small SF raiding parties have operated and operate in Afghanistan.
