Good post and I cannot disagree with everything. However, I will call attention to a few points.
First, in hindsight we can say that the establishment miscalculated and "all will be forgiven" was looked upon too generously.
Establishment repeatedly miscalculates the generosity of the US. I don't think this is a fault of theirs per se, but a fault of the culture.
Maybe the establishment thought the US would simply make the current account deficit dissappear? Perhaps all of its debts would be forgiven? Or maybe they knew this was unrealistic, but if personal benefit was guaranteed, then why not?
We know there is no unity in the establishment. Asim Munir, Naseem Anjum, and a few others are literally the establishment. All others with dissenting voices stay quiet or are court-martialed. So how can an institution collectively make a decision to benefit the country when its been hijacked by a few individuals?
Second, while the miscalculation is possible, there are plenty of things behind the scenes that we are not aware of that may have been opened up as a result of change in government.
The first is that an IMF deal was reached averting a major balance of payment crises (nobody was willing to bail Pakistan out, we know this factually) so American support was crucial for it. What PTI could have done in terms of recovering the economy in med to long term was still not going to avert this balance of payment crises (we are still not out of it but we also have not defaulted).
The issue here is that
bailout was critically required after Imran Khan was removed. It was not PTI that depleted the forex reserves, but Ishaq Dar who brought back the dollar peg, overvalued the currency, and succeeded in bankrupting Pakistan, something he had done twice before.
The
bailout was secured at the end of PDM term. I'm not saying PTI did not need IMF injection, but it wasn't a do or die situation as the country was not bankrupt, but doing pretty well economically.
Second, while we may not see the tangibles in the form of new military hardware flying into the country, there is a lot of maintenance and logistical support for which we are dependent on the US/West. The recent chatter about Pakistan signing CISMOA and participation in Ex. Brightstar reveals that the interaction is increasing whereas in all of PTI's term there was deathly silence on all fronts. Additionally, there could be intelligence sharing against ISIS/TTP that we are not aware of. On the issue of mil-mil relations picking up, for the general public this may not be a big issue but they are also not aware that Pakistan's defense needs cannot be met by China solely. This is a very important element to understand. E.g. KSA, UAE, Turkey and most recently even Armenia have had to take steps to align/re-align with powers that help with their security/defense posture. Pakistan is certainly no exception (one might argue our case is even more acute given the growing disparity each day vis-a-vis India).
I agree with alignment with the west, there is no alternative. However, was Imran Khan completely disassociating Pakistan from the west? He still sought trade with the US & EU. Exports to those had increased.
I think the
arguments of Khan angering the US are overblown out of proportion.
Trump literally shamed Pakistan to which Khan humiliated him on Twitter. Not too long after,
Trump was sitting down face-to-face with Imran Khan. Has Biden even met Shehbaz Sharif?
The lesson here is that respect is not given, it is earned. When Pakistan sells itself for cheap like the establishment always does, it gets no respect.
When Pakistan stands its ground like Imran Khan did, it commands respect of even the most egotistical of US Presidents.
Although you listed agreements like CISMOA and maybe there might be some action in maintenance & spares,
what is the point of these when you are bankrupted to the extent that it affects your warfighting capabilities?
Weapon systems are becoming increasingly more complex and expensive. How is Pakistan going to afford the Turkish KAAN fighter when it's bankrupt? Who is going to pay for additional VT-4 tanks? Where is the money for the Jinnah class going to come from?
The economic disparity between India and Pakistan is too vast. Forget India. Even Bangladesh has more purchasing power now. French President Macron is supposed to pay Dhaka a visit to pitch the Rafale to Bangladesh. This competition includes the Eurofighter. Can PAF even dream of acquiring these anytime soon?
To have some sort
cooperation that brings short-term benefits in exchange for losing long-term ability to fight conventional war with India is dangerously myopic of the establishment.
So, this is not simply a case of "To make others happy, destroy own people/country". You have to keep in mind that our establishment is pretty clear about what it deems important to the country's security interests (as perceived by itself) and for the most part it sticks to its stance regardless of the blowback. This was the case with our nuclear program, support for Mujahideen, support for Taliban prior to 2001, and our policies throughout the US-Afghan war. So the establishment doesn't necessarily bend over for others all the time. They try to safeguard Pakistan's security interests where it is possible and sometimes there are no good choices.
I agree with you on many things, it's not so clear. Somethings were done out of necessity.
However, let me just leave you with one point.
Pakistan is perceived to have been sheltering OB-L.
What did it gain from this?
tribune.com.pk
arynews.tv
www.geo.tv
