These are interesting times.
India, for all intents and purposes, has walked itself into a commitment trap.
1. If they attempt to use IAF again - even if IAF does not lose any aircraft in a stand-off weapons use against Pakistan, there would be an assured response from PAF using long-range standoff capability of its own. What was once an Indian placard (a la use of drones in exFata) is now mostly a liability. And we will not divert their targets this time.
2. Should they opt to attack us militarily - anything short of a proper war would mean we'd be able to respond tit for tat, caliber for caliber, and range for range. It'd hurt them as bad.
3. The problem with a concentrated attack is that - what are its objectives? Holding territory is out of the question, it'd be their massacre, in the presence of MRLS / long-range arty, and this is before the air force even gets into the equation with its own solutions.
4. What I do however can see is them trying to land a spec-op party in the Sir Creek region, attempting to blow a thing or two, take a few videos, and bug the hell out of the region. This gives them a Hollywood like action sequence & enough drama to lionize as surgical strike 3 vs Pakistan. The same can be repeated in case of LOC as well, but I still don't think they'd try the 2016 formula again. It died without making a whimper.
