IMf 2012 April WEO

[ao333]

The IMF is publishing interesting estimates. Some highlighted toll baits include:

Canada remains wealthier than the United States, Japan and Taiwan with GDP per capita at $51,688.600, $49,601.410, $46,972.605 and $20,502.704 respectively.

Canada's economy at #10 will remain larger than India's at #11, despite having 1/34 the population. (Just to troll the Indians who think they're better than Canada)

India's GDP per capita will fall to $1,454.646 from #136 to #142, due to significant currency depreciation (decline in the value of Indian products and services to the rest of the world)

China's GDP per capita will rise to $5,898.565 from #91 to #88

The difference in economic worth or income per capita between a Chinese and an Indian is 4.05 to 1 excluding Hong Kong. 4.17 to 1 including Hong Kong. The average Chinese is able to produce in 1 day what Indians take 4 days to produce. What takes the average Canadian 1 day to produce takes an Indian 34 days to produce.

China's 2012 GDP growth at 8.2%, while India will be at 6.9%, although that gap will close to 8.5 vs 8.1 by 2017. The difference in size between China's economy and India's will continue to enlarge until sometime in the next decade (2020-2030), when India grows at the same pace as China. It is also around this period when India surpasses China as the most populated country in the world.

The US and India are suffering from chronic trade deficit (low demand for domestic and high demand for foreign products) while China and Japan are enjoying long term trade surplus (high demand for domestic and low demand for foreign products)

The reason why Chinese growth outpaces India is not solely due to its economic competitiveness but also its high saving-investment rates at 50% vs India's 33%. Investment growth sacrifices current consumption growth for capital accumulation which aids in future growth. However, in the absence of robust export markets, the production from the capital accumulated must be consumed by the domestic market, leading to less savings, which means less investment and lower future growth.

Basic macroecon indicators and principles for the 15 year olds on this forum.

Report for Selected Countries and Subjects

PS: I ROFLed after noticing the IMF label for Taiwan. I couldn't believe the EU was capable of buckling to China in such a disgracing manner...

 

[DrSomnath999]

[B]You have to see it to rofl.[/B]

ya .yaaa as soon as i saw it i rofled

(Just to troll the Indians who think they're better than Canada)

 

[1962 spanking]

I want to see how India compares to Africa. Very similar development, similar poverty levels, similar illiteracy levels, similar level of corruption, non-existent infrastructure.
Although India has that vulgar caste system.

Great to see china progressing well.

I laugh at those hysterical predictions that India will outpace Chinese growth. Been predicting that since the 1990s. More Firing blanks by India.
Indian currency collapsed, it's budget & trade deficits are out of control, debt is staggering, overconsumtpion and massive and uncontrollable population growth causing overpopulation draining resources of the Indian regime.
The regime has tried its best to find solution to these problems, but the regime is not interested in welfare for the people, the regime is more interested in importing billions of dollars worth of military equipment. All this while vast majority (50%+)of the Indian population cannot eat or drink water.
The mortality rate is extremely high too but what the heck who cares about that as long as the military is importing all the weapons.

 

[protest]

Can someone explain this report for me?

IMF Report


How has Pakistan grown by over 20% from 176 billions to 210 billions while India only grew by 5% from 1597 to 1676 billions in 2011. I can't seem to understand these statistics.

 

[ao333]

Can someone explain this report for me?

IMF Report


How has Pakistan grown by over 20% from 176 billions to 210 billions while India only grew by 5% from 1597 to 1676 billions in 2011. I can't seem to understand these statistics.

If you're 10 years old, you shouldn't be here. For those Indians who are over 10 years of age but is too poor or dumb to undertake secondary or tertiary education, the Indian economy nearly shrunk due to a significant collapse in its currency.

A depreciating currency means that the work or goods/services that Indian produces, are perceived as "worthless" by the rest of the world.

An appreciating currency, such as that of Canada, Australia and China, means that the goods/services citizens from these countries produce are perceived as more "valuable" to the rest of the world.

A depreciating currency will further the trade deficit India currently has, if their exporters do not take advantage of it (which they're not).

 

[Banglar Lathial]

I want to see how India compares to Africa. Very similar development, similar poverty levels, similar illiteracy levels, similar level of corruption, non-existent infrastructure.
Although India has that vulgar caste system.

Great to see china progressing well.

I laugh at those hysterical predictions that India will outpace Chinese growth. Been predicting that since the 1990s. More Firing blanks by India.
Indian currency collapsed, it's budget & trade deficits are out of control, debt is staggering, overconsumtpion and massive and uncontrollable population growth causing overpopulation draining resources of the Indian regime.
The regime has tried its best to find solution to these problems, but the regime is not interested in welfare for the people, the regime is more interested in importing billions of dollars worth of military equipment. All this while vast majority (50%+)of the Indian population cannot eat or drink water.
The mortality rate is extremely high too but what the heck who cares about that as long as the military is importing all the weapons.

Economically, India is more or less an Africa, only a less diverse one (in terms of culture, religion, ethnicity, cuisine and climates). Parts of Africa have levels of prosperity that are unimaginable in any city in India, for example. Anyway, IMF is another of those western meaningless projects which are nothing but "covers" to achieve their ulterior aims through deception.

If you're 10 years old, you shouldn't be here. For those Indians who are over 10 years of age but is too poor or dumb to undertake secondary or tertiary education, the Indian economy nearly shrunk due to a significant collapse in its currency.

A depreciating currency means that the work or goods/services that Indian produces, are perceived as "worthless" by the rest of the world.

An appreciating currency, such as that of Canada, Australia and China, means that the goods/services citizens from these countries produce are perceived as more "valuable" to the rest of the world.

A depreciating currency will further the trade deficit India currently has, if their exporters do not take advantage of it (which they're not).

Your explanation of currency appreciation/depreciation is wrong but you are right that the failed entity called "India" had its currency depreciate rapidly in the last year against some of the widely traded currencies.

 

[farhan_9909]

pak gdp nominal last yesr was 210billions

and this year around 230bn

 

[Raphael]

Economically, India is more or less an Africa, only a less diverse one (in terms of culture, religion, ethnicity, cuisine and climates). Parts of Africa have levels of prosperity that are unimaginable in any city in India, for example.

I wouldn't say that India is less diverse than Africa. India is really diverse, and it only sustains itself as a single entity because the British glued it together for them. India is kind of like sub-Saharan Africa, except shrunk to the land area of Argentina.

 

[Banglar Lathial]

You are right that the only thing common amongst the current bunch of so called "Indians" is a lifelong penchant for servitude to Britain, but no way is India as diverse as Africa. A single country like Nigeria has about 250 ethnic groups. The number of languages, religions, cultures, cuisines, and other factors are so diverse in Africa that India can not be compared in this regard. Only in economic matters can you compare all of Africa with India. Yet, there are parts of Africa that are so far ahead of India, that Indians would dream for their country to be half as developed as those parts of Africa (like certain parts of South Africa, Seychelles, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, and I hear that Botswana and Angola are also developing pretty well now).

 

[R0H1T]

If you're 10 years old, you shouldn't be here. For those Indians who are over 10 years of age but is too poor or dumb to undertake secondary or tertiary education, the Indian economy nearly shrunk due to a significant collapse in its currency.

A depreciating currency means that the work or goods/services that Indian produces, are perceived as "worthless" by the rest of the world.

An appreciating currency, such as that of Canada, Australia and China, means that the goods/services citizens from these countries produce are perceived as more "valuable" to the rest of the world.

A depreciating currency will further the trade deficit India currently has, if their exporters do not take advantage of it (which they're not).

Well you seem to be pretty dumb nonetheless(even though you're an adult right ?) GDP growth of a country is measured in local currency & should not be tied to exchange rate fluctuations(I argued this in another thread - PPP vs nominal GDP) that can actually make it look like the economy shrank when infact it expanded ! IND's trade deficit is mainly because of crude imports that were nearly ~200 billion dollars last fiscal. IND cannot peg the rupee to dollar like the CN have as it'll harm us more(we're net importer afterall) besides IND is a net exporter of services & net reciever of remittances. This is the reason why the rupee hasn't depreciated to ~60 over the yrs, if you've got any clue as to how an economy works then you wouldn't have posted your rant here but alas your either a CN/PAK import to Canada it seems.

 

[ao333]

Well you seem to be pretty dumb nonetheless(even though you're an adult right ?) GDP growth of a country is measured in local currency & should not be tied to exchange rate fluctuations(I argued this in another thread - PPP vs nominal GDP) that can actually make it look like the economy shrank when infact it expanded ! IND's trade deficit is mainly because of crude imports that were nearly ~200 billion dollars last fiscal. IND cannot peg the rupee to dollar like the CN have as it'll harm us more(we're net importer afterall) besides IND is a net exporter of services & net reciever of remittances. This is the reason why the rupee hasn't depreciated to ~60 over the yrs, if you've got any clue as to how an economy works then you wouldn't have posted your rant here but alas your either a CN/PAK import to Canada it seems.

No, GDP growth measured in local currencies only suffice in domestic debates. Globally, the only reason why the Indian currency depreciated is due to flight of "hot" money which entered India during the midst of the financial crisis. Comparatively, the outflow of capital from other eastern economies, such as that of China, Korea and Japan have been much subtle, due to lower inflation and larger trade volume.

The value of a currency less speculation, is simply the net effect of current (trade) and capital accounts. When the domestic currency rise (or depreciate), it's either due higher demand for foreign products or higher demand for foreign assets (capital flight). In India's case, it's both meaning that its energy costs have risen due to a deflating dollar (more dollars are required to purchase the same quantity of oil, since the oil states have pegged currencies to the US), and the low profit margins that Indian companies are to earn. Indian bonds are also considered "junk" by international investors and rating agencies due to India's chronic fiscal and trade deficits.

 

[R0H1T]

No, GDP growth measured in local currencies only suffice in domestic debates. Globally, the only reason why the Indian currency depreciated is due to flight of "hot" money which entered India during the midst of the financial crisis. Comparatively, the outflow of capital from other eastern economies, such as that of China, Korea and Japan have been much subtle, due to lower inflation and trade volume.

The value of a currency less speculation, is simply the net effect of current (trade) and capital accounts. When the domestic currency rise (or depreciate), it's either due higher demand for foreign products or higher demand for foreign assets (capital flight). In India's case, it's both meaning that its energy costs have risen due to a deflating dollar (more dollars are required to purchase the same quantity of oil, since the oil states have pegged currencies to the US), and the low profit margins that Indian companies are likely to earn. Indian bonds are also considered "junk" by international investors due to its chronic fiscal and trade deficits.

I don't know how global debates go(never been to one) but its absurd to say that the GDP growth of a country can be measured in a foreign currency subject to exchange rate fluctuations !

Consider this - if in absolute $$ terms the IND economy were to shrink in fiscal 2011-12, say if the rupee went from ~45 to ~55, then it would be termed(technically speaking) as a recession but in local currency the GDP grew at a breakneck pace !

Now the IND govt bonds aren't junk either by any standards(check S&P, Fitch, Moody's) but you seem to be picking whatever you've googled for a debate which is highly immature to say the least. I'll end this by adding that all GDP figures from US to CN to IND are all mostly inaccurate, how much so is the only thing worth debating !

 

[ao333]

I don't know how global debates go(never been to one) but its absurd to say that the GDP growth of a country can be measured in a foreign currency subject to exchange rate fluctuations !

Consider this - if in absolute $$ terms the IND economy were to shrink in fiscal 2011-12, say if the rupee went from ~45 to ~55, then it would be termed(technically speaking) as a recession but in local currency the GDP grew at a breakneck pace !

Now the IND govt bonds aren't junk either by any standards(check S&P, Fitch, Moody's) but you seem to be picking whatever you've googled for a debate which is highly immature to say the least. I'll end this by adding that all GDP figures from US to CN to IND are all mostly inaccurate, how much so is the only thing worth debating !

Indian debt is 1 grade above junk: http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/sovereigns/ratings-list/en/us/?subSectorCode=39

Anything lower than BBB- is considered junk, India is at BBB-.

In any case, it's common for developing countries to argue for the validity of PPP, since it over valuates their domestic product. The concept of PPP, is invented to reflect the living standards of countries where living expenses account for the majority of their income. An example would be how a haircut in India may be less expensive than in Canada, although the quality is different. Both receive a haircut, meaning that the PPP is the same. However, the Canadian haircut is of a higher quality, which can only be measured in nominal terms, or by the value of the economy as a whole.

It is impossible to compare different countries using the PPP, since the basket of goods used in computing PPP weighs differently between countries. Take for example, spices in India accounts for 5% of GDP, however spices in Canada only accounts for 0.5% of GDP. This means that a rise in the relative price of spice in India, would depreciate its currency. Similarly, if Canadians hair cuts is more expensive, a rise in the demand of hair cuts in Canada would increase Canadian GDP by a higher % than it would for India.

The concept of PPP is a fallacious one for comparing the economic value between 2 countries. It is impossible to compare 2 countries with completely different price structures using the same basket of goods. The concept is further complicated by the changing items in the goods basket as the world economy evolves.

Nominal calculations of GDP based on the US dollars on the hand, reflects the value of domestic goods in international terms. When the rupee depreciates, it simply means that Indian goods such as cotton are deemed less valuable by other countries, thus the Indian economy is less valuable. When the Canadian dollar appreciates, it simply means that Canadian goods such as diamond, is more valuable, thus the Canadian economy is more valuable.

If you were to compare the economic "clout" of two countries, nominal is the only route. The Chinese economy for example, will surpass the United States in 2017, but China will not be nearly as influential. In nominal terms, China will surpass the US in 2027, at which point the two countries will likely be on par in terms of economic influence world-wide.

PPP is great for measuring basic non-tradable services such as haircuts and telephone inquiries, which make up the bulk of developing countries' living cost. But if you are talking to another country, about the value of India's economy, nominal is the only measure. USD-based denominations is also the only way to compare economic prowess and influence between countries, as the USD is the only universally convertible currency which can translate gross domestic product into political influence outside one's own country.