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If There’s Going to Be a Thai Civil War, Isaan Will Be Its Front Line

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Resentment toward Thailand’s latest military coup is palpable in the Isaan region of northeastern Thailand, reinforcing a long-standing sense of ethnic separateness among its Lao-speaking people

The folk music of Thailand’s northeastern Isaan region is known as morlum and it follows a familiar theme. Typically, a young, wet-behind-the-ears girl or boy leaves the emerald rice paddies to move to the big city. Once there, facing exploitation, social estrangement, and heartbreak, the protagonist yearns for the pastoral wholesomeness of their birthplace.

It’s a tale many in Thailand’s largest region can relate to. “When you live in upcountry Thailand, everywhere you go — your neighbor’s house, restaurants, the market, taxis — that’s the music that they play,” says singer Christy Gibson, who grew up listening to morlum and its close relative luk thung after moving to Isaan with her parents at the age of 6, and is one of the few foreign musicians to have made it in the Thai mainstream.

But despite making up a third of the population, the people of Isaan — who share a culture and language closer to neighboring Laos — have for centuries been second-class citizens to the inhabitants of Bangkok and central provinces, who often are descended from Chinese stock. And although it is the rice-bowl of a country that, until recently, was the world’s largest exporter of the grain, the region has historically suffered from chronic underdevelopment.

As a result, local people traditionally headed south to Bangkok or the country’s tourist zones to work as taxi drivers or construction workers, often returning home to help at harvest time. Many women, weary of toiling under the hot sun for a pittance, ended up working in the sex industry.

In recent times, though, Isaan has experienced a comparative upturn in fortunes, with new investment transforming the area into a manufacturing hub. In the villages, rickety wooden houses are being rebuilt in concrete, with shiny pickup trucks parked outside. In the cities, glitzy shopping malls, boasting ice-skating rinks and global coffee chains, are the hangouts of spiky-haired teens in fashionable streetwear.

The upshot? “Isaan people have become cosmopolitan villagers who have sophisticated understandings of themselves as Thai and as participants in a global labor force,” says Charles Keyes, professor emeritus at the University of Washington and author of a recent book on Thailand’s northeast.

But not is all well. The successive ousting of Isaan-backed governments by the Bangkok-based political establishment is reinforcing the sense of ethnic difference and consolidating a political identity for Isaan alongside its cultural and linguistic ones. And following Thailand’s latest military coup on May 22, many Isaan people are calling for greater autonomy — even independence.


“There’s a generalized anger at the military government,” says David Streckfuss, an American scholar based in the Isaan city of Khon Kaen, who has studied Thai culture for over 25 years. “Civil war is never a plan, it’s an outcome of bad choices,” he adds. But “it’s not unimaginable, as there is so much pent-up anger.”

Isaan identity, just like morlum, has long been distinct. “Isaan migrants tend to live together, to speak Lao with each other, to listen to Isaan popular music, and, most of all, send money to relatives at home,” says Keyes. “Identification as khon isaan, northeastern people, is a primary identity even for those who have lived outside the region for years.”

Colonialism has fed this dynamic. Once the French gained control of Lao in 1893, they quickly noted that those living across the Mekong also spoke the same language as their new subjects, and attempted to unite all Lao under Gallic rule. Siam, as Thailand was then known, took umbrage and in 1904 reclassified all ethnic Lao within its borders as Thai — “just an inferior sort of Thai,” explains Streckfuss.

Nearly a century later, the differences were still great enough for telecoms mogul Thaksin Shinawatra to make a political career out of them. Though he was not born in Isaan and was in fact of Chinese descent (his mother came from a Hakka family and his great-grandfather was a migrant from China’s Guangdong province), Thaksin shrewdly decided to champion the region’s rural poor. He was elected Prime Minister in 2001 largely on their votes, in return for which he initiated populist policies such as microfinance loans, fuel subsidies and universal health care.

But Thailand’s entrenched elite soon tired of this parvenu, accusing him of buying votes from gullible bumpkins and even of angling to replace the revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej as the object of popular adoration. Despite an unprecedented re-election in 2005, Thaksin was ousted in a military putsch the following year. He was convicted of corruption in absentia — charges he insists are politically motivated — and remains in exile.

“He’s a businessman, sometimes insensitive to social plights, but that’s the extent [of wrongdoing] that I’ve seen,” Thaksin’s former spokesman, Jakrapob Penkair, told a recent luncheon meeting at Hong Kong’s Foreign Correspondents’ Club. “If he has committed any crime, it is the crime of being naive — of believing that Thailand was already a democracy.”

Thaksin’s popularity in the northeast has endured despite his ousting, and parties he backs have won every election this millennium, only to be removed twice by the military and three times by the courts. A popular movement, colloquially known as the Red Shirts, developed to demand his return — and a reciprocal royalist Yellow Shirt movement emerged to resist it.

The color-coded rivalry between them has convulsed Thailand for nigh on a decade now, with sporadic bloodletting claiming scores of lives and leaving thousands injured. This, in turn, has intensified the antipathy between the capital and Isaan. This became especially bitter during the six-month-long Shutdown Bangkok demonstrations that began last November, when Yellow Shirt protesters demanded the ousting of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin’s sister, on the pretext that the northeasterners who elected her were too stupid to be trusted with the vote.

“In February, I was hearing 20-minute rants about the history of the Laos and how they were repressed — how [the Thais] came up on horses and put chains around our necks and dragged us away,’” says Streckfuss. This newfound pride wasn’t about identifying with fellow Lao people across the Mekong, he adds, “it was anti-Bangkok.”

That the Red and Yellow Shirt factions are ethnically, linguistically and geographically distinct has heightened fears of armed conflict. In February, before the coup, Red Shirt leader Suporn Attawong announced plans to recruit 600,000 young men across the 20 northern provinces to join a new progovernment Democracy Protection Volunteers Group. Since the putsch of May 22, caches of weapons have been unearthed alongside stores of Red Shirt propaganda materials. Last week, despite the obvious risk of detention, Red Shirt activist Ittipon Sukpaen threatened civil war on his Facebook page. Weapons are freely available in Thailand: according to one 2011 study, the country has an estimated 10 million firearms in civilian hands.

Even morlum mirrors this changing dynamic, though not in the bellicose way one might expect. “Many of the artists I’ve spoke to try to use their music as a vehicle for positive reconciliation,” says Gibson, “to say ‘we are all Thais.’” And that is, of course, true. It’s just that today — just as it was in the past — some Thais believe they are more Thai than others.


Thailand: Why Isaan Feels Politically and Culturally Different - TIME
 
No ethnic conflict in this polical chaos.
Thaksin and his clans + Esaan + North people --> red shirts
Bangkokians + South --> Yellow shirts.


The above article is far from situation on the ground.
It is just simple statistics that Bangkokian has higher Chinese descent.
In fact, Thai people are mixture of ethnicity. Siam was the mixture of Khmer blood and Dai, Lao and Mon blood.

You can google Thai language sources to find relation between ethnicity and the political view. and You will find none.
Statistical speaking

The probability of being yellow shirts given chinese descent equals the probability of being yellow shirts.
P(yellow shirts| chinese descent) = P(yellow shirts)
If the counting shows to be correct, we say that they are statistically independent.

For the title of the thread,
If there is a civil war in Thailand, Bangkok, not Esaan, will be its front line.

Ask 100 Thais, you will get atleast 90% answer this.
 
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Issan was conquered by Siam, and their dialect are being deemed low class. Below shows Thailand as a cleave country, not unlike Ukraine, with Issan and Lanna supporting Pheu Thai. Red is Pheu Thai and blue is democrats.

Thai general election, 2011 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Bangkok is a mix bag

Right now the Bangkok elites still rant that Bangkok people support Dems and the North support Pheu Thai. In reality there is a lot of Northern Thai living in Bangkok, due to numerous reasons are only allowed to vote in their hometown.

If these Northern Thai in Bangkok is allowed to vote, the Dems may even lose Bangkok.

300px-2011_Thai_general_election_results_per_region.png
 
There is a prophecy saying that the current Chakri dynasty of Thailand can only last for 9 monarch. Bhumibol Adulyadej the current king is the 9th.

Chakri Dynasty came about when the first king Rama 1 murdered his good childhood friend cum father-in-law, King Taksin the Great.

King Taksin is a Chinese and Rama 1 is half Chinese.

200px-KingTaksinfromItalymuseum.JPG



Today at the when the 9th Chakri emperor Bhumibol Adulyadej reign, a guy call Thaksin Shinawatra emerges, and pose an extremely strong threat to the monarchy system.

220px-Thaksin_DOD_20050915.jpg
 
You even know this!. Its supersticious. but sometime people belief in supersticious.

Thaksin Shinawatra for all his fault wanted to do something for the people. All government before Thaksin would sit by and see people rot. During the worst economic crisis of Thailand in 1998, the Dems tell the unemployed to “go back to their villages and depend on their families", while spending state finances in securing the savings for the rich in failed banks

Taksin | Uglytruth-Thailand

Under Thaksin, Thailand quickly recovered. Also the Dems have been accusing people of "clutch mentality" when the Thai ask for more social services. Under Thaksin, Thai have free basic healthcare. Before the Dems keep lying that free healthcare will bankrupt Thailand while under Thaksin, free healthcare not only does not broke Thailand, but the economy is getting stronger.

The only people bankrupting Thailand are the dems, the palace, the banks, the elites and their cronies, in view of their fact that they make people suffer while use state monies to bail themselves out in the 1998 economic crisis.
 
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After the future of King Rama IX , Thailand is likely to fall into serious political infighting than now
 
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