FuturePAF
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Ask yourself how much of this is calculated guesswork vs assumptions and wishful thinking.
That aside, your fundamental point that Pakistan has to 'do something'....that do something is BEFORE inviting any surgical strike. As I pointed out, even if the cross border terrorism escalates several times over, as long as the terrorists do not try to or succeed in returning alive to Pakistan, India will not have to perform any strategic surgery. When the terrorists are caught alive (happens very very rarely) Pakistan simply denies they are Pakistani. If their communication is sourced, Pakistan can simply reuse the Lakhvi routine.
Even tactically I think it would be advantageous for India to just kill the terrorists before they are able to return home to Pakistan and then incur the expense of surgical strikes.
The Myanmar episode was completely different because the terrorists returned and hid away in the jungle across the border.
War is Calculated Guesswork/Assumptions, but there is an art to it, and I am no military officer (so take my comments as a starting point and not a definitive analysis of an expert)
During the 1967 Arab-Israeli War Israel launched nearly all of its 200 Fighters (only kept 12 for the defense of Israel) and launched a preemptive attack on the Egytian Air Force coordinated at approximately 7am when their intelligence found out there was a shift change, they wargamed for 6 years and executed on the morning of june 5th 1967 like clockwork.
there were many things that can go wrong, but this very scenario we are discussing should be proof that Pakistan needs an operational plan for if this possibility arises, and what to do, with out a moments hesitation. they need to war game this for years and have the armed forces rehearsing this, just in case.
clearly if anything is alleged on a country they will try to deny it,
that's how nations act, RAW might be accused of sponsoring terrorists in Afghanistan or Baluchistan, sometimes they are agricultural advisers and engineers and sometimes they are "agricultural advisers and engineers."
Also, there are many of elements outside of state control in Pakistan. Large swaths of India are also outside of effective state control and administration. If radical extremists act on their own to attack the other country, and they are killed in the process by that nations security forces, then both nations would rather have that, then have a myanmar style episode.
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the best way to beat India, is to have the best economy possible, a higher gdp per capita, a better standard of living
use/monopolize our geographic position , resources, and any connections to build up our industries and human capital to out compete on a per capita basis with India
or at the very least have a decent standard of living that allows Pakistan to not be coerced by india, and allow us to maintain our physical as well as cultural independence.
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