IAF violated Pakistan air space| Forced to return

[Imran Khan]

Action in the air



Monday, December 15, 2008
The two incidents on Saturday when Indian warplanes crossed the border into Pakistan’s airspace, over the Azad Kashmir and Lahore sectors, are a terrifying reminder of just how close we are to conflict. The knowledge that both nations are armed with nuclear weapons adds to the anxiety. The fact that Pakistan airforce planes were able to chase back the intruders offers some degree of comfort. At least readiness seems high. Their success in doing so also goes to show drone flights over the western frontier could be dealt with in a similar fashion - but that of course is quite another story.

While both New Delhi and Islamabad have put the incident down to a ‘mistake’, this sounds unconvincing in a day and age of high-tech navigation instruments. The fact that the incursions happened within 24 hours in two separate sectors makes the official explanation seem still less likely. It is thought the Indians may have been attempting to test readiness, and at the same time also deliver a clear warning to Pakistan, further adding to the pressure on it. New Delhi has been continuing the tactics it adopted immediately after the Mumbai attacks. Its initial strategy aimed at directing all blame Pakistan’s way. Now, with at least one of the terrorists having been identified as a Pakistani national, India wishes key suspects it has named to be handed over to it. The Pakistan government has stated it cannot permit this.

The situation is a perilous one. The two South Asian neighbours stand poised closer to war then at any time in decades. This is an outcome that must, at all costs, be avoided. The US has tried to bring down the pitch by counseling restraint to a belligerent New Delhi and cooperation to a rather harassed Islamabad. The UK too has assisted. A war in the region works for no one and as far as the West is concerned would only detract attention from the war on terror, which remains its primary concern. Islamabad and New Delhi too must do all they can to ease the persisting tensions. They must be wary of the hype being built up by the hawks in both countries. A war or even a situation in which strain continues to mount would be highly destructive to both countries. The fact that the peace process has been pushed back years by the violence in Mumbai is already a blow. A worsening in relations must not be allowed. Islamabad must act with wisdom and patience to ensure this and persuade New Delhi to do the same.

 

[fatman17]

The Rising Storm - India and Pakistan

Posted by Jodha | Monday, December 15, 2008

Over the weekend it was reported that two Indian fighter jets violated Pakistani airspace. Although the Indian state is claiming the trespass was inadvertent, it seems that such a move is meant to engage in a ‘psychological escalation’ and pressure Pakistan into taking bolder actions against various militant groups.

However from talking to relatives in India and keeping abreast of the situation through Indian and Pakistani newspapers, it seems that an Indian strike against Pakistan is becoming a foregone conclusion. Anytime India and Pakistan have come to blows, it is the Punjab that is on the frontline. Thus while all South Asians should be aware of the ongoing situation, Sikhs in particular should be paying stark attention. Stratfor has provided an interesting analysis of the situation, which I try to summarize some of the points here.


Delhi Sarkar’s Game
The current argument that an impending Indian strike is likely is predicated on the current weakness of the ruling Congress-led coalition. Because of opposition public mobilization and elite anger due to the possible foreign capital flight, the Congress-led coalition may begin clamoring for a military response. If the Congress coalition they do not and should the government dissolve, the BJP, who has long charged the Congress with being weak in combating terrorism, would attempt to shore up their government with a military strike.

The goal of a strike other than the placation of some parts of the public is a much more difficult question. 1) Some argue that the Pakistani government officially sponsors terrorism; 2) others argue that Kashmiri groups that were first fostered by the ISI have now grown autonomous and may not be in control of their actions anymore; 3) a third view is that the weakness in the Pakistani government does not allow it to suppress various militant groups and that some ISI members or former members are now running their own rogue operations. The first two possibilities assume that the Pakistani government is in control but chooses not to assert itself, while the third indicates that the government is not in control and that further destabilization may lead to the civilian government’s complete downfall.

The demand by India for the 20 individuals that seem to go beyond just Islamists, but includes former head of the ISI, Lt. General Hamid Gul (due to US pressure for him), is meant to test the possibilities. If the Zardari government is in control, it will be able to weather the storm of a clash with the Islamist groups in Pakistan. If it cannot wager to do so, then it indicates that the Islamist movement is in control.

Rawalpindi Sarkar’s Game
While the Pakistani government sees the Islamists as a threat, I doubt that it sees itself as a failed government. It will argue that a direct confrontation with these segments of the Pakistani populace has the potential to alight the whole region.

Pakistani officials believe they can thwart an Indian attack through threatening US interests. This is why the first comment by Pakistani officials was that they would now withdraw 100,000 troops from the Afghan border and move it to the Indian border (read: Punjab border). The deteriorating situation in Afghanistan and the resurgence in various Taliban-affiliated or oppositional elements poses great problems for the incoming Obama administration, who vowed to put Afghanistan on the top of his foreign policy agenda. The withdrawal of Pakistani troops would thus be a DIRECT threat to American troops operating in the area. Thus Pakistani government and military officials believe that the US will mitigate the rhetoric and response from India.

Thus it seems the only military action that the US would not oppose would be limited Indian airstrikes on Pakistani soil. Most likely this would be against certain camps in Pakistani-administered Kashmir (Azad Kashmir). From various reports numerous camps exist and so the loss of a few camps and probably even a few Islamists wouldn’t do much harm to the Pakistani government. In fact they probably would appreciate it. They would make some defiant statements, move troops upon the border, and use it to shore up greater domestic support for the government.

However, as mentioned before the big assumption for Pakistan is that the US will pull the reins back on India. Is this the reality or not is indeterminate. Will US officials mourn the loss of Zardari or do they have a backup plan? Also, of note is that India does not have the same relationship with the US as Israel and can act much more independent of Washington. While the Indian government shares some interests with Washington, it is not dependent.

As echoed by Publius, I also fear that political opportunists may try to dissipate public anger by turning against the defenseless Indian Muslim population. Right now I think we are in a calm before some sort of storm – what that storm might look like is anyone’s guess.

the above is the Sikh sarkars view

 

[x_man]

Heey Guys...I am really surprised by the way the news are being mandled. If IAF has vioalated Airspace...then its the credibility of IAF and weakness of PAF.

Pakis can no way compare with India in Any matter...We are tooo big for u guys to touch.

Thats It OK...

We were all born vulnerable, inept, incompetent, useless, and that’s how it’s been happening. Some rise above this with age and time. Others do not.

 

[Beskar]

Heey Guys...I am really surprised by the way the news are being mandled. If IAF has vioalated Airspace...then its the credibility of IAF and weakness of PAF. I request you guys to stablilise your Govt and make the people educated.
India never feeels that Pakistan is a threat to them. It was years before.Now we consider them in a manner of Somalia,Ethiopia etc..where people fight each other in the name of religion and hunger.
Pakis can no way compare with India in Any matter...We are tooo big for u guys to touch.

Thats It OK...

Change your Flag, Troll!

 

[fatman17]

We were all born vulnerable, inept, incompetent, useless, and that’s how it’s been happening. Some rise above this with age and time. Others do not.

esp our dear friend masala000, who seems to have an identity problem!

 

[air marshal]

 

[ajpirzada]

India prepared for attack on Pakistan: CNN


WASHINGTON (updated on: December 15, 2008, 18:12 PST): The United States believes that India's air force began preliminary preparations for a possible attack against Pakistan in the immediate aftermath of the recent massacre in Mumbai, a US news channel reported here Monday.

Three Pentagon officials individually confirmed to CNN that the United States has information indicating that India began to prepare air force personnel for a possible mission.

One of the officials said India's air force "went on alert." While, a second official said the United States concluded these preliminary preparations would have put India quickly in the position to launch air strikes against suspected terrorist camps and targets inside Pakistan.

During these preparations, a number of senior US officials were urging India to exercise restraint -- which apparently it did, he added.

Wing Cmdr. Mahesh Upasani, an Indian air force spokesman, said the service had no comment on the report.

Until now, the Bush Administration has publicly said it saw no signs of military movement by India and no indication that the Indian government was preparing any type of retaliation.

The Pentagon officials broadly described the activity as checking on the status of crews, fighter jets and weapons that were available. The extent of the reported preparation was not immediately known.

Also, one of the Pentagon officials confirmed that the United States has intelligence indicating a single Indian aircraft violated Pakistani airspace twice on Saturday. The United States believes the incursion was inadvertent, the official said, adding that there is no information to indicate it was planned.

India prepared for attack on Pakistan: CNN : Business Recorder | LATEST NEWS


well as far as i remember IAF told indina media there was no such incursion. so now atleast we know that pak wasnt comin up with the story to divert attention rather it didnt took any misadvantage and allowed things to calm down.

 

[Jihad]

Quote:

Originally Posted by masala000
Heey Guys...I am really surprised by the way the news are being mandled. If IAF has vioalated Airspace...then its the credibility of IAF and weakness of PAF. I request you guys to stablilise your Govt and make the people educated.
India never feeels that Pakistan is a threat to them. It was years before.Now we consider them in a manner of Somalia,Ethiopia etc..where people fight each other in the name of religion and hunger.
Pakis can no way compare with India in Any matter...We are tooo big for u guys to touch.

Thats It OK...

Change your Flag, Troll!

Sigh..comparing Pakistan to Somalia or Ethiopia..?
Please don't get me started..
When you wake up from your dream, I hope to see some more sensible and thoughtful posts.
In the meantime, please do a reality check about your own country.

P.S.: how about we go troll hunting bezerk?
I believe it is troll-hunting season..

 

[rubyjackass]

India prepared for attack on Pakistan: CNN



well as far as i remember IAF told indina media there was no such incursion. so now atleast we know that pak wasnt comin up with the story to divert attention rather it didnt took any misadvantage and allowed things to calm down.

I think India admitted it to be 'inadvertent'. Pakistan also said that these might be 'technical' and 'hyped'. India did deny any protests from Islamabad. The Pakistan media's incursion story might be true but clearly hyped the situation.

 

[Beskar]

Quote:


P.S.: how about we go troll hunting bezerk?
I believe it is troll-hunting season..

For sure This guy had a PAKISTANI flag when he posted his message.

 

[Jihad]

For sure This guy had a PAKISTANI flag when he posted his message.

Ahwell..can't blame the poor soul for the low amount of brain cells he has by making such posts.
Anyway, are there any updates on the situation regarding the violation of Pakistani airspace?
What's been happening?

 

[blain2]

How does one explain Predator attacks ? Do they use corridor or their is some agreement with GoP?

India Pakistan have been doing Air space violations since long they already know each other capabilities. Why would IAF risk and aircraft and cut a sorry figure ? and give a face saving option to Pakistan.
How does one explain foreign Ministers statement immediately afterwards. How does she know the violations were inadverent?

Depends on where the Predators are flying from.

 

[ajpirzada]

I think India admitted it to be 'inadvertent'. Pakistan also said that these might be 'technical' and 'hyped'. India did deny any protests from Islamabad. The Pakistan media's incursion story might be true but clearly hyped the situation.

well there u go..... IAF denied any such incursions and said these are misinformation compaigns carried out by pakistan....
so now i hope u wont mind me sayin that ur airforce wasnt tellin the truth....


However, in New Delhi, Indian Air Force (IAF) spokesperson Wing Commander Mahesh Upasini told: "There has been no violation of Pakistani airspace by Indian fighter planes. The reports are untrue."

"There is a misinformation campaign going on to digress attention from what happened on 26/11," he said referring to the terror attacks in Mumbai.

India denies violating Pakistani airspace, 'technical intrusion': Zardari- Politics/Nation-News-The Economic Times

 

[Energon]

Wow... the only thing worse than air space violations are information highway violations by trolls, who somehow seem to be in full flow today... is it still a full moon?

Nonetheless to get back to the topic at hand....
Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't these types of incidences rather common? I mean I've seen MuradK's posts about how they'd fly over Indian areas and get the forward bases to mobilize their interceptors. I have very little doubt the IAF conducts similar kinds of probing missions.

My guess is that its how each side attains information on the latest interception protocols (which I assume are changed from time to time for security purposes).

If the IAF is on standby to strike targets in east Pakistan then I'm assuming that something like this would have to be done on occasion.

This however is not to say attacks are imminent; in fact I'm pretty sure there will be none. The Pakistani authorities are already cracking down on most of these hubs, so most of the targets are pretty much non existent at this point because they've either been arrested or moved elsewhere (it's not like we're talking about elaborate military complexes here).

But had that one terrorist not been captured alive or had the western nations not got directly involved prompting Pakistan to just categorically deny any involvement it would have been a very different story.

 

[pkpatriotic]

Jet-Incursion Flap Highlights India-Pakistan Tensions
By Aryn Baker / Islamabad
Sunday, Dec. 14, 2008

A purported midnight incursion of Indian air force jets into Pakistani airspace Saturday brought tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors to an even higher pitch in the wake of the attacks on India's financial capital of Mumbai that killed 171 last month. Within minutes, the Indian jets were chased back by the Pakistani air force, say Pakistani officials, and retired air force commanders interviewed on Pakistani TV swore to defend their nation. The Pakistani air force claimed that Indian planes intruded as much as 2 miles (4 km) into the country, but the government says it accepted Indian assurances that the incursions were inadvertent. The Indian government, for its part, denied publicly that an incursion took place at all. Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari dismissed the incident at a joint press conference with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on Sunday, calling it a "technical incursion — two planes flying 50,000 miles up in the air; when they turned, they slightly entered Pakistan soil." Brown was in Islamabad after visiting India and Afghanistan to discuss security in the wake of the Mumbai attacks.

Still, the planes allegedly entered Pakistan near the two cities of Lahore and Muzaffarabad, where the banned militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba — which has been accused by Indian and British investigators of planning the Mumbai attacks — had been allowed to operate under the aegis of its charitable wing, Jamaat-ud-Daawa, until its leader was put under house arrest on Thursday. Pakistani analysts suggest that the "inadvertent" incursion may have been a warning that if strong action was not taken against the accused terror group by Pakistan, India would take matters into its own hands. Zardari stressed that his government was doing all it could to help in the investigation, and complained that doubts about its efforts were unhelpful. "We are investigating, and the Indians say they are investigating, but to say that we could come up with proof before they can would be asking too much from us," he said.

Scores of Jamaat-ud-Daawa leaders and activists were detained throughout the country and later requested sanctions after the United Nations Security Council declared their organization a terrorist group. However, inspector-general Shaukat Javed of the Punjab Police says many of those placed under detention will have to be freed if evidence of their involvement in the Mumbai attacks is not quickly produced by India, according to the News, a Pakistani English daily.

Pakistani government officials have been vocal with their frustration of what they call a lack of concrete evidence linking the group, which has strong ties to the Pakistani military intelligence community, to the terrorist attacks, despite intercepted mobile-phone conversations between the attackers and their handlers in Pakistan. Lashkar-e-Taiba was founded with the assistance of the directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in 1990 to serve as a proxy fighter in the disputed territory of Kashmir. The ISI has been repeatedly accused by U.S. officials of maintaining links to the terrorist group, which was involved in an attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001. That incident brought the two countries to the brink of war. In 2002, Lashkar-e-Taiba was banned, but it quickly resurfaced under a different name. Parts of the ISI, which still maintains that India is Pakistan's principal threat, are loath to crack down on such a militant asset.

At the press conference, Brown pledged a $9 million "comprehensive antiterror program" that would "ensure everything is done to make sure terrorists are denied any safe havens in Pakistan." Three times during the conference Brown stressed that at least three-fourths of all terrorist attacks in Britain had links to al-Qaeda in Pakistan. But he also said that Pakistan was itself a victim of terrorism, having suffered some 50 suicide attacks this year alone. The antiterrorism package, which Brown called the largest of its kind from his country, would include information-sharing, assistance with bomb-detection devices, forensics and education. "Through these measures we hope to do more to break the chain of terror that links the mountains of Afghanistan and Pakistan to the streets of the U.K. and other countries around the world," he said.

Brown also said that Britain had agreed to provide the Pakistani government more information about the Mumbai attacks. Now it's up to the new civilian government to prove it can act on it.