IAF needs 39 squadrons for 2-front war, has only 34'

[MilSpec]

As said, the first FGFA squadron is aimed at 2022 and in any war from then on, will not only be the prime A2A fighter, but also the prime deep strike and SEAD fighter.
Behind it MKIs and Rafales will cover nearly all roles in A2A and A2G, which shows why there is not much prospect for LCA in IAF. By the time all 80 x MK2s will be inducted we will even have armed Rustoms Hs and even more of the CAS role will be diverted. LCA simply is the low end of IAF and the longer it needs to be inducted, the less interest IAF will have in higher numbers. One reason I would have prefered a simply MK2 development and earlier induction.

MKI production run will end in 2017, FGFA will commence in 2018 early 2019. so when will FGFA will have full operational squadron strength?

When ADA has long struggled with LCA mk1 and Mk2, banking on Ucavs made by them is fool hardy

Not really, the max that it will do is point defence and CAS, similar to what Mig 21s, M2Ks, Mig 29 and Jags do. Any role above will be done by fore suitable aircrafts, like MKI, Rafale, or in future drones and 5th aircrafts. LCA will of course be a multi role fighter, but if at all for export customers, that doesn't have the luxury of IAF to have such a capable fleet.

M2K is a multi role strike platform, Mig 29 is an out and out air superiority platform, Jaguar is deep penetration strike fighter, Mig 21 is a an interceptor aircraft,
Dedicated CAS fighter in IAF is mig 27 not jaguar,If LCA Mk2 becomes what was envisaged to be, It will easily take on CAP roles (i.e area defense) as well as Ground attack roles.

And yes I do put my faith 100% in LCA MK2 and the pilot than propeller powered drones and CAD models of UCAVS with 2 bombs in the bay!

 

[Storm Force]

Other than 125 mig21 bison there's no more fishbeds. Ie 6 sqds....
There are another 6 sdqs of mig27 with 120 planes.
All of these wil or should be phased out by 2018...
8 sqd of mki and 6 of mirage 2000/mig29. 280 planesth
This leaves 120 jaguar in 6 more sqns .




If the mig21/27 are phased within five years then iaf need to induct 12 or 13 sqds in just 5 years mirgae
I see 7 more flankers sqds joining in 5 years and two lca tejas mk1 by 2018...
Finally by 2018 one sqd of rafale f3 or additional mirages 2000 second hand

 

[Abingdonboy]

Finally by 2018 one sqd of rafale f3 or additional mirages 2000 second hand

So the IAF is getting Rafales now then?


WHat happened to this:

http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian-defence/244415-mmrca-may-scrapped-year-end.html

@Storm Force?!

 

[sancho]

MKI production run will end in 2017, FGFA will commence in 2018 early 2019. so when will FGFA will have full operational squadron strength?

Again, by 2022.

M2K is a multi role strike platform, Mig 29 is an out and out air superiority platform, Jaguar is deep penetration strike fighter, Mig 21 is a an interceptor aircraft,
Dedicated CAS fighter in IAF is mig 27 not jaguar,If LCA Mk2 becomes what was envisaged to be, It will easily take on CAP roles (i.e area defense) as well as Ground attack roles.

The Bisons are BVR capable interceptors - just like LCA
The M2Ks and Mig 29 are or will be multi role fighters, designed for A2A - just like LCA
The Jaguar is or only dedicated strike platform, when the Mig 27s are phased out and can carry 2 x LGBs and 2 x IR missiles in CAS roles, as they did in Kargil with the M2Ks - just like LCA


So that is what LCA in all it's variants aim on, it already is superior to the Bisons in the interception role, just like the Jags in CAS, thanks to good handling, low RCS, modern avionics, EWS or weapons and with the MK2 version, it will even surpass the Mirage 2000-5 and Mig 29UPG.
But all this is the low end capability of IAF today and in future, because IAF will have much more capable fighters in high numbers and apart from that, the modern warfare is changing a fast too, which is why the potential of LCA is getting lower with any year of delay and that is something that you obviously don't take into consideration, while putting your "faith" on LCA, because all the mentioned fighters are also manned fighters, but most of them are more capable and drone can even cheaper, but more effective in certain roles, or that LCA a will carry only 2 x 1000lb bombs, which possibly as much as AURA might carry in it's to weapon bays.

Faith is good, as long as you keep a reasonable amount of realism too, otherwise you simply get blinded!

 

[MilSpec]

Again, by 2022.

Faith is good, as long as you keep a reasonable amount of realism too, otherwise you simply get blinded!
200 odd aircrafts in 3 years,where is the realism??

The Bisons are BVR capable interceptors - just like LCA
The M2Ks and Mig 29 are or will be multi role fighters, designed for A2A - just like LCA
The Jaguar is or only dedicated strike platform, when the Mig 27s are phased out and can carry 2 x LGBs and 2 x IR missiles in CAS roles, as they did in Kargil with the M2Ks - just like LCA


So that is what LCA in all it's variants aim on, it already is superior to the Bisons in the interception role, just like the Jags in CAS, thanks to good handling, low RCS, modern avionics, EWS or weapons and with the MK2 version, it will even surpass the Mirage 2000-5 and Mig 29UPG.
But all this is the low end capability of IAF today and in future, because IAF will have much more capable fighters in high numbers and apart from that, the modern warfare is changing a fast too, which is why the potential of LCA is getting lower with any year of delay and that is something that you obviously don't take into consideration, while putting your "faith" on LCA, because all the mentioned fighters are also manned fighters, but most of them are more capable and drone can even cheaper, but more effective in certain roles, or that LCA a will carry only 2 x 1000lb bombs, which possibly as much as AURA might carry in it's to weapon bays.

Faith is good, as long as you keep a reasonable amount of realism too, otherwise you simply get blinded!

Wait a min I thought you just envision LCA's as a point defence fighter aka interceptor, now If you are saying LCA mk2 if turns out as envisioned as a nimble, agile capable multirole fighter, and if better than M2k and M29's; will it be more than adequate to deal with most 4-4.5th gen fighter INSIDE indian territory, i.e CAP/Area defence?????

What advantage would low cost but capable platform bring to the table, maybe some money for additional Awacs, additional funds for training , better wages , i dont know. But this is for sure I am surely hoping to see larger number of mk2 in Indian colors.

Other than 125 mig21 bison there's no more fishbeds. Ie 6 sqds....
There are another 6 sdqs of mig27 with 120 planes.
All of these wil or should be phased out by 2018...
8 sqd of mki and 6 of mirage 2000/mig29. 280 planesth
This leaves 120 jaguar in 6 more sqns .




If the mig21/27 are phased within five years then iaf need to induct 12 or 13 sqds in just 5 years mirgae
I see 7 more flankers sqds joining in 5 years and two lca tejas mk1 by 2018...
Finally by 2018 one sqd of rafale f3 or additional mirages 2000 second hand

There are still 12 sqdns of fishbeds - all variants.... do the math...

7 squadrons, ie around 160 odd MKI in 5 years, ie 32 a/c's production per year... are we relying on magic now???

 

[Sergi]

@sandy_3126 : IAF will have 17 Sqdns of MKIs ie total number = 272. That gives us 16 ac per squadron.
So 160 is 10 Sqdns and NOT 7. 7 will be 112 which are supposed to be inducted by 2017 ( 30 * 4 )

Correct me if I am wrong but it was HAL who claimed that they will be producing 30 ac per year to meet 2017 dead line. Last year we saw induction of two MKI Sqdns ( Halwara in Punjab on Sep 25 + Sirsa in Hariyan in December 2012) so I think they achieved that.

Don't try to convince @sancho about LCA MK-2 numbers he never accepted more than 80 MK-2s. Hey but I am with you
IAF will have 150+ MK-2.
- India will have adequate money so we can spare 3/4 billion dollars on our home grown baby.
- to make LCA an export option IAF need to operate it in decent numbers so MOD will make them to do so.
- No operational capabilities will be compromised if LCA deliver what it promised.
- Looking at current policy IAF is very keen on filling in Squd numbers. Atleast that is one of the justifications given for upgrading M2K and Jags. So even if Rafael and FGFA in production to achieve the 42 number set for 2022 we need LCA. That can only be achieved if we add 10 LCA MK-2 Sqdns ie 180 minimum



@sancho : I am curious how you are having so much faith in our PSUs to produce a modern UCAV in such a short span. only option is a JV with a capable partner. But even that is not going to happen in such short span. Our Kaveri JV is being discussed over 5 years now ...still nothing. So why we are expecting a new UCAV JV will be materialise that fast ???
I am one of the biggest criticisers of DRDO/HAL/ADA. So I will say we have it when I see it at least in test flight.

 

[sancho]

200 odd aircrafts in 3 years,where is the realism??

Didn't get your point?

Wait a min I thought you just envision LCA's as a point defence fighter aka interceptor

Of course not, as I said if an export customer buys it, they can take full benefit of it's multi role capabilities, but not in IAF! Because IAF will have a highly capable fleet of fighters and soon also drones, which will take over the prime roles and that leaves only normal interception and 2nd day CAS roles for LCA.
That's why just faith in the fighter for further orders isn't enough, you also have to take to account what fighters IAF will have, what fighters our opponents might have by then. If IAF feels that it is enough to order more low end fighters, they will go for a few more squads, but if they feel that the threat perception by 2022 requires more capable aircrafts, they will go for more Rafales, FGFAs or drones.

But this is for sure I am surely hoping to see larger number of mk2 in Indian colors.

Fair enough, even I do, but I simply don't see it as realistic as follow orders beyond 2022 and would have hoped for more MK1s as early orders.

There are still 12 sqdns of fishbeds - all variants.... do the math..

Which I already showed you:

2 x LCA MK1 squadrons (40 x fighters)
4 x LCA MK2 squadrons (80 x fighters)
7 x Rafale squadrons (126 x fighters)

=> 13 squadrons with the minimum orders (246 x fighters)!

7 squadrons, ie around 160 odd MKI in 5 years, ie 32 a/c's production per year... are we relying on magic now???

???

http://s1.directupload.net/images/130412/wgn47ef3.jpg

 

[sancho]

[MENTION=37361]
Don't try to convince @sancho about LCA MK-2 numbers he never accepted more than 80 MK-2s.

That's not correct, but I tend to see the whole picture! Compare LCA in CAS for example with a Reaper drone, MK2 is estimated roughly at twice the procurement costs, is more costly to operate per hour, has roughly half the endurance without refuelling and still might not be able to carry more CAS loads.
Even when a drone is lost, you have lost only half the money and most importantly no pilot!
So from IAFs perspective, would you rather use an LCA or a drone?

: I am curious how you are having so much faith in our PSUs to produce a modern UCAV

I haven't, at least for AURA, that's why I always suggest a co-development with Israel, but Rustom H is already under development and even I think that DRDO might cause problems again and that the "look" of the mock up is possibly one of the worst, if we get it flying, droping LGBs or HELINAs is not an issue anymore. Not to mention that there is alse the possibility to upgrade our Heron drones earlier with CAS capabilities.

 

[Sergi]

I haven't, at least for AURA, that's why I always suggest a co-development with Israel, but Rustom H is already under development and even I think that DRDO might cause problems again and that the "look" of the mock up is possibly one of the worst, if we get it flying, droping LGBs or HELINAs is not an issue anymore. Not to mention that there is alse the possibility to upgrade our Heron drones earlier with CAS capabilities.

So isn't it contradiction ???
AFAIK there is no talk or even rumor about such JV.
Our forces never said anything about UCAV requirement it's DRDO only.
Still you are seeing such drones by 2022.

On other hand LCA MK-2 will be ready and inducted in whatever numbers ordered. So I put my money on LCA than Aura.

Let's not forget the Kaveri miniature will be tagged along Aura so that's gona take time too.
Rustum under development for long time now. Still they aren't looking for any expert help. So why you think they would do for Aura.

Atleast you will agree with "In ideal world they should take help but in real world they aren't - is fact"

Secondly IAF isn't going to stop for them. So these projects will fact the LCA fate while IAF has numbers to fill.

Thirdly How do you think IAF is gong to achieve 42/44 Sqdns by 2022 ??? Please don't count drones.
I agree IAF in last few decade never achieve sanctioned strength but in next decade when options are available they would try that. So how do you see 40 Sqads ???

That's not correct, but I tend to see the whole picture! Compare LCA in CAS for example with a Reaper drone,

Yes that's correct. Last time when we talk about GE-414 order ( 99 + 100 )you said that 80 MK-2 for IAF and reaming NLCA with testing protos.

And about reapers we don't have that option unless Uncle Sam become generous and offer us TOT and you too know what's the probability of that

 

[MilSpec]

@sancho:

If MKI production ends in 2018/19 and production for FGFA/PMF begins in 2022, guess how many years will it require for having a fully operational fleet of say atleast 5 sqdns? I am sure 2022 is not realistic!

My estimate is FGFA is not becoming an operation force multiplier anytime before 2025-28. thats 16 more years, So most of the strike mantle comes upon MKI, Mirage's and Rafales, It would be indeed nice for these squadrons to perform strike missions instead of running CAP's all day.

That's not correct, but I tend to see the whole picture! Compare LCA in CAS for example with a Reaper drone, MK2 is estimated roughly at twice the procurement costs, is more costly to operate per hour, has roughly half the endurance without refuelling and still might not be able to carry more CAS loads.
Even when a drone is lost, you have lost only half the money and most importantly no pilot!
So from IAFs perspective, would you rather use an LCA or a drone?

The advantage that LCA mk2 hopefully will bring to the table is quite larger than a reaper. Even in CAS, it will be not helpless against other aircrafts, if push comes to shove it it can payback every cent it costs in combat.

Compare the payload of a reaper and LCA mk2.

Again CAS with drones is applicable in afghanistan or somalia where air sup is not an issue, in our neighbor hood, any helpless drone in the radar will be shot down.

 

[Storm Force]

IF THE IAF HAVE 34 OPERATIONAL SQDS

THEN HOW CAN WE HAVE 12 FISHBED (MIG21 SQDS IN SERVICE )

AS PER

Originally Posted by sandy_3126
There are still 12 sqdns of fishbeds - all variants.... do the math..


Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/indian...-front-war-has-only-34-a-8.html#ixzz2S3xuWNuD

the reason we are down to 34 or even lower sqds is SOLEY BECAUSE THE IAF have HAD scrap the NON BSON MIG21 for being flying coffins .

8 MK
6 MIG29/MIRAGE2000
6 MIG27
6 JAGUAR
6 MIG21 BISON

THIS ALONE = 32 SQDS and over 600 fighters

IF WE ADD 6 MORE SDQS MIG21 as per sandy that makes 38/39 sqds and 720 fighters

which is not correct imo

 

[Jayanta]

The day India fights a two front war with China and Pakistan, the map of south Asia will change specially india.

1.Do you think India will the only one fighting on two fronts....
2. Forget India's map and think of yours....if it ever happens...India's map might change...but Pakistan's map won't exist.

@sandy_3126 : IAF will have 17 Sqdns of MKIs ie total number = 272. That gives us 16 ac per squadron.
So 160 is 10 Sqdns and NOT 7. 7 will be 112 which are supposed to be inducted by 2017 ( 30 * 4 )

Correct me if I am wrong but it was HAL who claimed that they will be producing 30 ac per year to meet 2017 dead line. Last year we saw induction of two MKI Sqdns ( Halwara in Punjab on Sep 25 + Sirsa in Hariyan in December 2012) so I think they achieved that.

Don't try to convince @sancho about LCA MK-2 numbers he never accepted more than 80 MK-2s. Hey but I am with you
IAF will have 150+ MK-2.
- India will have adequate money so we can spare 3/4 billion dollars on our home grown baby.
- to make LCA an export option IAF need to operate it in decent numbers so MOD will make them to do so.
- No operational capabilities will be compromised if LCA deliver what it promised.
- Looking at current policy IAF is very keen on filling in Squd numbers. Atleast that is one of the justifications given for upgrading M2K and Jags. So even if Rafael and FGFA in production to achieve the 42 number set for 2022 we need LCA. That can only be achieved if we add 10 LCA MK-2 Sqdns ie 180 minimum



@sancho : I am curious how you are having so much faith in our PSUs to produce a modern UCAV in such a short span. only option is a JV with a capable partner. But even that is not going to happen in such short span. Our Kaveri JV is being discussed over 5 years now ...still nothing. So why we are expecting a new UCAV JV will be materialise that fast ???
I am one of the biggest criticisers of DRDO/HAL/ADA. So I will say we have it when I see it at least in test flight.

I think counting LCA be it MK-1 or Mk-2 would be too optimistic. I do not trust these ADA/HAL/DRDO fellows...especially those in the LCA project. "LCA to mila nehi...par mila to bas TARIKH PE TARIKH"....

 

[Sergi]

I think counting LCA be it MK-1 or Mk-2 would be too optimistic. I do not trust these ADA/HAL/DRDO fellows...especially those in the LCA project. "LCA to mila nehi...par mila to bas TARIKH PE TARIKH"....

MK-1 is in the production as we speak. There is a link in LCA sticky. Do check that.

MK-2 is in near future. I don't think there is anything that will possibly go wrong now. And we are speaking about the time line 2022. So it wouldn't be an issue.

 

[Nadaan Parinda]

Lets hope we procure more aircraft and train our pilots better. Training is not up to mark

 

[Sergi]

Lets hope we procure more aircraft and train our pilots better. Training is not up to mark

Welcome to PDF.
And please do enlighten us about the so called training lags. I hope you are some kinda expert in that