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IAF finds itself in precarious position at a time when achieving air superiority

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The Indian Air Force (IAF) finds itself in a precarious position at a time when achieving air superiority is a necessity in deciding the outcome of a limited conflict or an all-out war. New Delhi’s late nod on Thursday to the purchase of five Russian S-400 Triumf anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems goes a long way in addressing those concerns.

For long, the IAF has relied on rigorous pilot training and force-multipliers such as Su-30 MKIs, MiG-29s and Mirage 2000s to offset the falling number of squadrons and the constant delay in the induction of the light combat aircraft (LCA) Tejas to replace the obsolescent MiG-21s. But recent deals between Russia and China, and proposed deals between Russia and Pakistan, seem to have clouded the skies.

For long, the IAF has prided itself on being the operator of the most advanced Flanker series aircraft in this part of the world. The N-011 Bars PESA (Passive Electronically Scanned Array) on the Su-30 MKI is the most powerful radar in the South Asian skies. It has held up well in its training mode against a barrage of sophisticated jamming exercises.

But with Moscow and Beijing signing a deal last month over the supply of 24 SU-35 Flanker-Es, that radar advantage now seems negated. The Irbis-E on the SU-35 eclipses the N-011 Bars in power and detection range. The airframe of the Flanker-E also uses a lot more composites, making it more durable and its manufacturer pegs its radar cross-section — the measure of a target’s ability to reflect radar signals in the direction of the radar receiver — at a fraction of that of the Su-30 MKI. Also worrying are the fast-paced developments of the Chinese fifth generation combat platforms. Both the Chengdu J-20 and the Shenyang J-11 are slated to enter the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s service in 2018. A 2012 report by the USChina Economic and Security Review Commission suggested that the US underestimated the pace of development of the J-20 and several other Chinese projects.

Pakistan’s talks with China about the supposed procurement of the Shenyang J-11s are reportedly in an advanced stage. In September, a senior Pakistani official confirmed to IHS Jane’s that Islamabad was also talking to Moscow about the procurement of Flanker-Es. This, coupled with the Chinese acquisition of the S-400 Triumf system, puts the IAF in a difficult position if hostilities break out. After the downing of the Russian bomber jet by Turkey near the Syria-Turkey border last month, asingle S-400 system deployment at Khmeimim Air Base has effectively turned Syria into a no-fly zone for the Turkish Air Force.

While India’s indigenous missile interception abilities are a secret, the Indo-Israeli Medium Range Surface-to-Air Missile (MRSAM) project is more than three years behind schedule. The IAF was quick to notice these fast-paced developments in the neighbourhood and has long been knocking at the ministry of defence’s door for purchase of the S-400 system. The ministry has finally agreed, and sources say that the announcement of the purchase of the five S-400s will be made during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Moscow trip next week.

But there are also reports coming out from the Russian camp that Moscow may link this deal to New Delhi clarifying its position on the joint fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) development programme.


The final agreement on the development is still pending, although an initial agreement was inked in 2010. The IAF has not decided on the number of aircraft it wants. Work-share issues between India and Russia are also not settled. So, India risks further delay in acquiring a state-ofthe-art area surface-to-air missile (SAM) system that can plug crucial holes in the country’s anti-aircraft and anti-missile capability. The vaunted FGFA is also not expected to enter service any time before 2022.

In that connection, one can’t comprehend the government’s decision to cut down the number of Rafale platforms to just two squadrons (36 aircraft) from the targeted seven. It puts more pressure on the Flankers and the upgraded MiG-29s and Mirage 2000s. What’s worse, the Super Sukhoi upgrade that the IAF had hoped to be completed by 2015 has not even started. There are more than 200 SU-30MKIs to upgrade.
The IAF and the ministry are alive to the rapid changes in the air combat scenario in the neighbourhood. But the response has not been the ‘scrambling’ best. Also, in the case of indigenous projects, the military bureaucracy tussle sees goalposts shifting every now and then.

These problems need to be sorted out fast, as they compromise the country’s bid to emerge as a significant global player.

IAF finds itself in precarious position at a time when achieving air superiority - ET Blogs
 
Well, During the Pas 7-8 Years I have learned Gradually that , Defence Cos use Presstitutes Extensively and really Rely on "Rumours" ( on a scale and magnitude ) far far more than any other Industry.

Here is the Hidden Culprit :

In that connection, one can’t comprehend the government’s decision to cut down the number of Rafale platforms to just two squadrons (36 aircraft) from the targeted seven. It puts more pressure on the Flankers and the upgraded MiG-29s and Mirage 2000s. What’s worse, the Super Sukhoi upgrade that the IAF had hoped to be completed by 2015 has not even started. There are more than 200 SU-30MKIs to upgrade. The IAF and the ministry are alive to the rapid changes in the air combat scenario in the neighbourhood.

Explanations :


A. Increase the Rafale Orders
B. You Need Rafale to Reduce Pressure
C. You Need Latest Rafale with Best Technology
D. Buy Rafale Quickly , You are too Late
E. And Rafale Fits the Bill , Adatapted for that Change and Gain Superiority over China / Pakistan
 
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Well, During the Pas 7-8 Years I have learned Gradually that , Defence Cos use Presstitutes Extensively and really Rely on "Rumours" ( on a scale and magnitude ) far far more than any other Industry.

I

Not just the companies ALSO the Government and MoD
There is NO rule that India should declare its real strength

Nobody does ; Or else spies and intelligence agencies would be Jobless
 
The most interesting part is this "Pakistan’s talks with China about the supposed procurement of the Shenyang J-11s are reportedly in an advanced stage."

So Pakistan is negotiating for j 11 not su 35................
 
Sir,

S400 is a new addition true but certain places and strategic location are already protected via S300.
Look at this
s6rud5.jpg


Notice the lower left "OPERATORS" and Lower RIGHT source and date..

As you see, India name is marked......
I had posted the same in S400 thread too
Complete Information on India's Almaz-Antey 40R6 / S-400 Triumf | Page 3

Now as far as far as engagement are concerned with Fighters, the Su35s in 24 nos are not a very big gamechanger wrt China India military equations. The Super30 program should partially address that issue.

For PAF, even with J11s their primary ability is air superiority and to outsmart the SAMs APF need terrain hugging SEAD/DEAD mission capable DPSA with massive EW jamming capabilities with Anti radiation Missiles.. Even if say JF17s does come terrain hugging at say 30m the MAR1 at lo trajectory of flight at best will have range of 25-33% of its actual range of 100 odd kms. You can imagine how deep they have to get inside Indian territory to either take out FCRs or neutralaise the command centers or bomb the TELs..

In the same page of S-400, I posted two more articles where one states such airframes liekely candidates are Rafale and Gripen NG. Otherwise a surprise package can be VLO stealth Jets . The second post i pasted was this, a range of detection of FCR under S-400,
s400-x-band-png.280584


Complete Information on India's Almaz-Antey 40R6 / S-400 Triumf | Page 3

92N2E Grave stone in SA-21 is S-400 - Pink line
So an avg 3m2 RCS detection range is approximate 150 NMI meaning = 277 Kms approx
Imagine say 1m2 RCS so thats around 135 NM meaning 250 Km detection approx
Tomahawk RCS - 0.5m2 so its detected at around 85 NMI implying 157 Km detection
A typical cruise missile with UAV-like characteristics has an RCS in the range of 1 m2; the Tomahawk ALCM, designed in the 1970s and utilizing the fairly simple low-observable technologies then available, has an RCS of less than 0.5 m2.
Radar Cross Section (RCS)

Even if the low flying terrain hugging missile has just 0.1m2 RCS its detection is 70-75 NMI approx thats 130 kms.

Enough for launching the 2 of the engagement ranged missiles 30km and 120km ones and also activating Pantsirs for beyond that layered protection...

+++++++++++++++

The present F22 although detected late can also be countered partially if not fully.Unless PAF gets 5th gen jets from China, and their capability matches or exceeds USA stealth tech, the scope of PAF superiority looks difficult .. On top limited fleet size makes it even more challenging


thus present challenge is dwindling primary jets due to uncertainty of 2 main projects - FGFA 5th Gen and Medium Category Rafales both under MII as individually both are required around 100+ each.. so a gap of 200-250 birds.. That needs attention to the core.. Perhaps Off the shelf some 60-80 odd PAKFA stage 1 with present engines may fit the bill.. The article may be trying to build a consensus of requirement and real need towards that. And than order another 100+ under MII FGFA.

The urgency for Super Sukhoi program should also be done specifically to address the called Radar upgrades along with host of other upgrades.

(LCA is more or less done deal now with 100 orders now and later more to be ordered so not counting)
 
The most interesting part is this "Pakistan’s talks with China about the supposed procurement of the Shenyang J-11s are reportedly in an advanced stage."

So Pakistan is negotiating for j 11 not su 35................
Fingers crossed, the Su-35 would present a FAR more credible threat than the J-31 to the IAF.
 

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