I don't like the Odds of Plebiscite in Kashmir being in Pak favour. (Opinion).

[ito]

If Independence will not be an Option then Pak would likely win in the Kashmir Valley, harsh truth .

I have to agree with you on this. If independence is not an option, valley could join Pakistan.

 

[Roybot]

@M.SAAD

Pakistanis and Kashmiri seperatists need to understand that a secession and plebiscite on the basis of religion was a one-off madness that happened in 1947, courtesy the Brits, and absolutely no country would support such madness in this day and age. Had it been a secular freedom movement, then it would find some support in the rest of the world.

The rest of the Indians find this idea absurd is because there are 200 million other Indians who happen to be Muslim and are are happy to be Indians, so whats so special about 7-8 Million Kashmiri sunni Muslims that they deserve their own country ? Once again had it been a secular movement, based on ethnicity, then it would have some traction and support with the rest of the Indians too. But that ship sailed with the genocide, persecution and "religious cleansing" of the Kashmiri Pandits from the valley.

So unless India does something insane along the lines of Bosnia (which it wont't), forget about any international support for this so called "Kashmiri Freedom Movement". And that too mind you Bosnia was before 9/11, post 9/11 fair or not, the world opinion about Islamic ideology and Islamic countries have changed drastically.

The status quo is the best solution to this issue, the sooner the separatists and the Pakistanis understand this, the better it is for the common Kashmiris and for everyone else involved.

 

[Srinivas]

much better than you annexing it later like Goa or Hyderabad-

Hyderabad is one of the fastest developing cities and Goa is peaceful !

Afghanistan is in turmoil !

 

[JonAsad]

Hyderabad is one of the fastest developing cities and Goa is peaceful !

Afghanistan is in turmoil !

did we anex Afghanistan?
you wanna compare- compare the growth under occupations- IOK and Afghanistan would be a great comparison -

 

[ito]

did we anex Afghanistan?
you wanna compare- compare the growth under occupations- IOK and Afghanistan would be a great comparison -

Sure...Indian Kashmir grew by 15.54% last year, while Afghanistan grew by 3.1%

 

[Srinivas]

did we anex Afghanistan?
you wanna compare- compare the growth under occupations- IOK and Afghanistan would be a great comparison -

The scenario we are discussing is about Kashmir being independent and Pakistan venturing into Kashmir just like what happened in mid 1990's in Afghanistan.

 

[gau8av]

Just trying to be realistic here, talking to some IOKmiris on facebook and different forums and doing little bit of research looking at Polls and talking to people who have the insight knowledge about the situation and geography . (Although I know thats not enough but certainly IOKmiris know better about the situation than people of PDF).



I honestly don't think the Odds favour Pakistan much, I know a lot of people are under a different impression here in PDF and in Pakistan, that a lot of people think that Kashmiris want Kashmir to merge with Pakistan (Which is a totally false assumption IMO and a lot of polls suggest otherwise), In case of a plebiscite the battle would strictly be between Joining with India vs. Making Kashmir Independent ,most of those waiving Pakistani flags would most likely vote for Independent Kashmir too, Merely 10% would (probably) vote in favour of Joining Pakistan and we'd be left redfaced in front of the World .



How can we be so sure that a plebicite in Kashmir would favour Pakistan?? In Jammu about 66% of the population is Hindu majority, so its obvious the vote of the about 30% Muslims in that area would go waste, about 65% of Jammu's Muslims are Shias who don't seem to like Pakistan either. The Ladakh region is also Buddhish, Hindu majority thus it'd cede to India too.



In the Kashmir region (the Valley) there is Muslim majority about 65-70% are Sunni Muslims, 15% Hindu & Sikhs, rest Shias , the Shias + Hindu & Sikhs would vote for India, while in the remaining 65% of Sunni Muslims , around 5% are Pro India, remaining is divided in opinion of Pro Pakistan & Pro Independence, and opinion has vastly shifted from being Pro Pakistan to Pro Independence in recent years, right now the chances are that if a plebicite happens the Valley would choose Independence, while Jammu and Ladakh regions would choose India, some Population is the region is undecided and just wanna get on with their lives, so that'd be Swing votes .


So what odds are we counting upon?? There is a close possibility that people in Azad Kashmir could choose Independent Azad Kashmir instead of choosing to be a part of Pakistan..


Idk why I think we have more to lose than gain in this whole scenario and we're being very silly and delusional about it and living in some Disney land with no clue whatsoever of the ground situation, the most we'd get from all this is a Independent Kashmir Valley, idk how it'd work/survive on its own and how it'd would benefit us?





So, thoughts ?? Im just being skeptical not judgmental , I have serious doubts over our Odds in case of Plebicite in Kashmir and most people seem to be Unaware of this ..

you're bang on

I happen to be irl good friends with a few Kashmiri muslims and while they may not be 100% Indian patriots and are even critical of how their whole issue has been historically treated, they are nowhere near pro Pak, like not even close, and none of them care about "azad" Kashmir or gilgit-balistan, they're only concerned with the valley. India have provided good opportunities for them to grow and they are well integrated into main stream society and have managed to flourish. These guys are of course well educated, well traveled folk all from good families.. 1 is a commercial pilot, others I know are doctors, dentists, some are running business and so on.. about the plebiscite, in the absence of an "independence" option, they will vote for a status quo, and not rush to join Pakistan.

Which is not to say there aren't problems or anti India sentiment or militancy, of course those things also do exist, but it's way overblown by the Pakistani establishment.

So you are quite right to be skeptical of your chances.

 

[Hussain Farooqui]

The scenario we are discussing is about Kashmir being independent and Pakistan venturing into Kashmir just like what happened in mid 1990's in Afghanistan.

In the mid 1980's, most of the rightest block countries were venturing into Afghanistan. The US President Ronald Regan introduced the Afghan freedom movement leaders are heroes of the century in a White House reception. The same people are now alleged as terrorists by American and the Western countries.

 

[New Resolve]

Good Joke Good Joke

 

[Razia Sultana]

"Hindus, sikhs, buddhists, shias and and some sunnis will support India while most sunnis will favour an independent kashmir and a handful will favour merging with pakistan."
"Azad Kashmir will most likely go for independence rather than be with Pakistan."
So most of the people are going to opt for either India or independence. Pakistan is nowhere in picture when it comes to kashmiris, not even in Azad Kashmir. So what and whom is Pakistan supporting... a miniscule militants and a handful hurriyat leaders on payroll?
It absolves India's stand. Kashmir can not be snatched at gun point or nuke point to be precise. When India proposed that let their be free flow of kashmiris on both sides of the border and they get 2-3 decades of peace and then both nations give it more gradual sovereignty until they are really an independent entity and then they decide their own fate. But Pakistan is not ready for that. This is the only way to resolve the kashmir issue without hurting the egos of either parties. But make it an ego issue and the status quo wont change ever.

*** Pakstan occupiid J& K

 

[nForce]

much better than you annexing it later like Goa or Hyderabad-

It's just that Pakistan did not have the capabilities to do such a thing while India had. Pakistan has been trying the same thing with Kashmir and has been unsuccessful.
So, you can very well drop that tone of self-righteousness there.

@Rain Man

Eje gelo-gelo rob utheche

 

[mufti]

Actually, thanks to Indian Media propaganda and all, they've made their population and Muslims believe that there is a stong Shia-Sunni divide in Pak, and labelled Shias as the victims ..


and Indian Muslims have fallen for it, so its impact has also reached Kashmiri Shia Muslims .

I agree with you here. Shia and Sunni has big rift in valley. Shia supports India and are anti Pakistan. Shia population is 14 to 15% (may be more now) in Kashmir.

 

[Sheikh Rauf]

its all assumption.. why dont we let Kashmiries decide what they really want.. either way ... muslims are 87% in jamu and Kashmir .. we all sud support UN to resolve the issue the way india wanted.

 

[mufti]

its all assumption.. why dont we let Kashmiries decide what they really want.. either way ... muslims are 87% in jamu and Kashmir .. we all sud support UN to resolve the issue the way india wanted.

 

[Sheikh Rauf]

After that you can declare Jihad on kashmir and teach Ummah and true religion to Kashmiris just like you did with Afghanistan!

Afghanies are the one who helped you have Islam .. if you remember Mahmmod Ghaznivi for example.. we already muslims a lill trim from here or there wont bother we will remain muslim.. your population will grow from 35% muslims to 65%..